The 2022 NBA Playoffs are coming down to the wire as we currently find ourselves in the middle of the Conference Semifinals. While there have not been any upsets (in terms of seeding) up to this point, will the trend continue to persist, or begin to veer off and give rise to some advancement from the current underdogs? Tonight features the Celtics traveling to Milwaukee to face the Bucks (MIL leads 2-1) whereas in the West, the Warriors host the Grizzlies in a series favoring Golden State two games to one. After sifting through potential ATS edges throughout the entirety of the 2021-22 NBA season; nothing of significance stood out to me that would move the needle in terms of possesses a sports gambling advantage. However, to view this in a different lens, the least lucrative play this season has been placing your bets to back the Home-Underdogs. These teams have only covered 47% of the time throughout the league. More importantly to note, Home-Underdogs in the playoffs are 7-10 ATS; that’s good an even lesser 41%. Let’s go ahead and shy away from these guys the remainder of the playoffs, yeah?
The 2022 NBA Draft is just over a month away beginning on June 23rd with the draft lottery selection taking place on May 17th. The Rockets, Magic, and Pistons all have the best odds to receive the first pick in this year’s draft. There is not consensus clear-cut number one pick leading up to the draft. Many mock drafts have differing opinions with some placing Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga), Paolo Banchero (Duke), Jabari Smith (Auburn), or Jaden Ivey (Purdue) as the first selection in the draft by one of the previously mention teams.
This upcoming weekend my dad and I were all set to attend a few Spring Training games in Surprise, AZ. As all of you have probably heard, these games are not going to take place across both the Cactus and Grapefruit League’s. A mixture of sadness and angry flow through my body as I have yet to attend an MLB spring training game in my 28 year old lifetime. As an avid baseball fan, coach, and guru one would have to assume that this little trip has been on my bucket list for quite sometime – and you’d be correct. With no baseball on the horizon I decided to come up with my hometown team’s “all-time” stating lineup. The Kansas City Royals have won two World Series titles and a good portion of this list and lineup helped bring those championships back to Kansas City.
For this evaluation I chose the best Royals player of all time for each position along with three starting pitchers and a relief pitcher. If the MLB lockout persists, I plan to post more where other teams are featured. My all-time Royals starting pitchers compiled 552 wins with a combined career ERA of 3.52 (Paul Splittorff, Zack Greinke, and Bret Saberhagen). Coming out the bullpens as the career saves leader for Kansas City with 304 career saves is Jeff Montgomery. The catcher for the Royals hold the single season homerun record for the club and holds a career batting average of .270. He is a fan favorite and brings a smile to everyone’s faces, especially children (Salvador Perez – 7x All Star, 5x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, World Series MVP). At 1st base, this player possesses a career .297 average while being the one bright spot for the Royals franchise during its darkest period in the late 90’s and early 2000’s (Mike Sweeney – 5x All Star). The second basemen for the Kansas City Royals dream team lead the MLB twice in number of hits and is a two time All Star (Whit Merrifield). Standing at the hot corner is a player who many would argue to be the greatest Royal of all time. This ball-player holds a career batting average of .305, leads the Royals franchise is number of base-hits along with many other statistical categories (George Brett – AL MVP, 13x All Star, 1x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger, 3x Batting Title, ALCS MVP). The shortstop for this squad number is retired by the Royals and is now seen on television as a commercial spokesman and MLB Network analyst. He is a speedster and a muscle man with 160 career homeruns and 178 stolen bases (Frank White – 5x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, ALCS MVP). Originally a third basemen in college, the quote-un-quote “hometown kid” was the Royal’s first round pick in 2005 out of the Nebraska University.
This player was one of three crucial pieces to winning the 2015 World Series against the New York Mets; your left fielder, Alex Gordon (3x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, 2x Platinum Glove). To Alex Gordon’s left, the center fielder for the all-time Royals was a late round draft pick out of a junior college in Florida. This outfielder was the third pivotal piece for the Royals World Series success in 2015 (Lorenzo Cain – 2x All Star, 1x Gold Glove, ALCS MVP). Our final player for the Royals all-time franchise team is not only our right fielder, but the oldest Royal in this particular line-up. This batting is a career .290 hitter while playing for the Royals for 15 seasons (Hal McRae – 3x All Star, 1x Silver Slugger).
Click through the slideshow to take a look at each of the “all-time” Royals to put a face to the name and all of the achievements that each of them has tallied up throughout their great careers. Tonight in NCAAB I like the Cornhuskers on Senior Night over the Hawkeyes as 12.5 point dogs and the UNDER on this game of 161.5 as Iowa shot lights out the other night against Michigan St. I do not foresee them shooting this well in back-to-back games; hence, siding with the lower TOTAL margin.
After reading Joe Lunardi’s book that I referred to in the post titled It’s never too early to utter Joe Lunardi’s name… on October 1st, I was surprised to find that there is no true “algorithm” that Joey Brackets formulates while he constructs his bracketology predications week after week. That was one of the many talking-points that I took away from his book. One thought that got brought up that I found very interesting left me pondering: was ESPN the beneficiary of March Madness or was it the other way around? Lunardi states, “It begs the question: did college sports, especially college basketball, grow because of ESPN, or did ESPN grow because of college hoops?” I got to thinking and began to take this idea a step further as it more adequality relates to this particular blog – Has sports in general become more popular because of sports gambling? I would have to argue yes, and quite frankly would not accept the ladder. Sports gambling has allowed for the low to moderate sports fans to become average sports fans, the average sports fan to become an avid sports fan, so on and so forth. It’s not like this is some new thing to us right? Well kind of… in 1949 sports gambling became legalized in Nevada and only Nevada. So maybe it is like a bright and shiny new toy to most of us even though the act of sports gambling has been know for quite some time. However, now that more and more states are beginning to legalize betting while coupling that with the availability and access to online bookies, odds, and other platforms encompassing sports gambling gives way for a whole new crowd of the masses to enter the sports gambling realm. So when you get the chance, ask yourself: who is the real beneficiary? Popularity of sports because of legalized gambling access or gambling in general due to sports. Similar to the ole’ “chicken before the egg” phenomenon because non-sports gambling has been around long before organized sports have been. Oh, I took Quinnipiac (+1) at home over Marist tonight -you’re welcome.
While we are on the topic of beneficiaries; how much is Jimmy G. thriving off the fact that he has a very solid, young head coach and not to mention that he has had the best defense (2019) and the 6th best defense (present), in terms of total yards, in both of his playoff runs.
With this being said, I tend to value the 49ers defense despite the fact that the NFC Championship game will be played on turf which is rather friendly to the OVERS. I like the UNDER in this game at 46.5. I foresee these teams having a very difficult time scoring, especially in the first half. If you are as high on the 49ers defense as I am than you may want to go against the mean of siding with the Rams in this NFC West showdown. The sharpest NFL sports gamblers love to make their living on taking road underdogs that have solid defenses. Hmmmm… oh! the 49ers meet this criteria. This game has a final score of 17-16 written all over it to me for whatever reason. Take that projected total of 33 with a grain of salt, would ya. I say this because over the past four years, the favorites in conference championship weekend have gone 11-5 ATS. Obviously this would contradict the 49ers play; however, Kyle Shanahan (49ers HC) is 7-3 against Sean McVay’s Rams while winning six straight of those seven. This a classic example of “buyer beware.” Nevertheless, should be a great match-up this upcoming Sunday afternoon!
On December 28th, the NFL lost former player, coach, broadcaster, and video-game endorser unexpectedly. Madden owns the best winning percentage by any coach in NFL history throughout his ten year coaching stint. In 1978, Madden put away the playbook and put on the broadcasting headset; not after posting a 103-32-7 overall record (76%) while coaching the Oakland Raiders. Whether your memories of Madden are most vivid on the gridiron, in the press box, or his iconic voice in Madden ’09;
one thing is for certain, he had a positive impact in some shape or form for all football fans, players, employees, and coaches. Rest in peach John Madden, you will be missed.
With the conclusion of several college football bowl games, we are seeing more and more “opt-outs” ever than before by these athletes. Mix this with coaches being fired faster than being hired makes it very difficult to know where a teams’ head is at entering a particular match-up. This new and evolving variable that is frustrating and taxing to keep track of makes gambling in this era of the bowl season harder than ever. Typically we would like to “proceed with caution” when making a play on odds/lines that seem too good to be true. When it comes to college football and bowl season, I highly recommend neglecting these such odds/lines as a whole. There are others out there that know way more than we do regarding a teams’ psyche, attitude, you name it; best to stay clear of those lines that make us scratch our heads. A good example of this scenario occurred this bowl season at Dallas, TX at the First Responder Bowl. Louisville closed as a 2 pint underdogs against Air Force?… The Cardinals are getting points against a Mountain West team, seems a bit fishy, right? The Cardinals ended up not covering the point spread after losing 31-28 to the Falcons. I have been searching out for some tangible edge(s) to capture for the remainder of the bowl season. Of the 24 games that have taken place, 12 of which have seen the underdogs cover ATS whereas the favorites have also covered half of the bowl games – no edge there. However, thus far there have been four games in which a mid-major program is facing off against a Power 5 foe. In each of these four games the mid-major program has won outright while going 3-1 ATS. Pretty impressive, right? Looking forward, there are only two of these match-ups remaining (Cincinnati vs. Alabama & C. Michigan vs. Washington St.). The Bearcats
currently sit as 14 point underdogs, whereas the Chippewas are 7 point underdogs. If you can shop around and find the hook on these numbers to get to 14.5 and/or 7.5 then I would like to stay true to the trend and side with both the mid-major underdogs over the Power 5 opponents… *as I bite my nails anxiously knowing that Alabama could very well be ahead by 24 points by halftime.*
Before I sign off, I came across a new development in Las Vegas. Vegas opened its doors to a new casino and resort in October of this year by the name of New Circa Resort in Vegas. What makes this resort unlike anything you’ve ever seen is its 4,000 capacity sportsbook-pool in one as you gaze above at the 143 ft. TV all while relaxing in the pool with your favorite beverage! Circa is just off the Vegas strip located downtown on Fremont St. Next time you decide to visit Sin City, look into planning your stay at Circa Casino and Resort.
College football bowl season begins in just six short days on the 17th. Leading us off are the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee St. and the Rockets from Toledo with action starting at 11:00am CST in the Bahamas. Subscribe to get the full College Football Bowl Game Schedule including the point spreads.
Currently, the odds sit in the Rockets favor as 10 point favorites, while the total is listed at 52 points. These two teams are just the tip of the iceberg with all that encompasses each and every bowl season bonanza! This season (post season) for college football is compiled of 42 bowl games for the pickings – betting pickings that is. We will spoiled with more college football from December 17th through January 4th (not including the CFP National Championship Game).
A “tip” that you may hear quite often when referring to betting bowl games is having awareness of certain teams’ motivation levels, or lack thereof. However, I have a strong belief that this lack of motivation only stems from Power 5 schools. Point being, smaller, mid-major programs will typically always fight tooth-and-nail during these bowl game match-ups. For the most part, they have no business, nor shot, at competing for an FBS college football national championship. Hence, these are the moments and games that they live to play for with their emotional and motivational levels at very high levels compared to some Power 5 programs that view these match-ups as just that – just another game.
Getting down to “how” and “why: behind making our plays, lets take a peak at a few tips that we’ll need to keep in mind while “bowl-betting” this winter. Thus far, I have already mentioned the motivation factor; now we need to be weary of each team’s player “opt-outs.” Opt-outs are become more and more prevalent in the college football bowl season realm. Athletes now understand how much is potential at stake for their future. Many argue if this is the right or wrong OPTion to consider as a student-athlete; however, maybe that discussion can be had a different time for a different post. As a side note: the first name that comes to mind when I think about the most impactful college football bowl “opt-outs” is Christian McCaffrey during his time at Stanford as he decided to not participate in the Sun Bowl in 2016. This created a storm of controversy regarding whether or not McCaffrey was in the right or wrong by abandoning his team to secure himself for a high draft pick and inevitably make millions for the single stroke of a pen. Pause and think to yourself for just a second: What would you do in his situation? Would you abandon your team and Seniors during their last moments of battle or would you guarantee that your future was safe by not participating in just another bowl game? Thankfully I have no skin in the game, so I don’t have any strong opinions siding either which way.
While we are on the subject of bowl season, we obviously have to discuss the CFP a bit (College Football Playoff). For the first time in its infancy, a mid-major school has been awarded to participate in the CFP. It’s a progressive world that we live in so I guess that this too fits the bill. On December 31st, Alabama (1) will take on Cincinnati (4) in the Cotton Bowl where the Tide is currently 13.5 point favorites. Immediately following, Michigan (2) squares up against Georgia (3) as 7.5 point underdogs in the Orange Bowl.
These odds seem very difficult to side with, at least in my “professional” opinion. However, I do know that both Michigan and Georgia have exceptional defenses that would pose for a low scoring game. Hence, I would more often than not side with the given points in low scoring affairs as the total is currently only set at 43.5… Michigan +7.5, give it to me! That is my best bet for these two CFP match-ups. Best of luck come this bowl-betting season and may the most motivated come out victorious (at least from a point-spread perspective).
Upcoming Football Picks:
Military Bowl: Boston College vs. E. Carolina (+3.5) – PICK: E. CAROLINA
It has been since 1995 since the MLB and its stakeholders have entered a work stoppage otherwise known as a lockout. With many free agents scrambling, and for good reason, to sign new deals with current or new franchises before the work stoppage began; we have seen record setting dollar figures hit the air-waves as this MLB lockout was predicted. Since the conclusion of the World Series, their has been a total of $1.7 billion worth of contracts signed between teams and free agent players. It should come to no surprise that everyone and their mom wanted to have continuous money flowing into their bank accounts before the much anticipated lockout was set in motion.
Two key dates to keep in mind moving forward are a: February 22nd, the date that pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and b: March 31st, Opening Day around the Major League. An agreement needs to be reached between the Player’s Union and the MLB Staff before these dates in order for a full 2022 season to transpire. While we are the subject of baseball, once again the Los Angeles Dodgers are the preseason betting favorites in terms of World Series odds currently listed at +500.
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MLB Opening Day
The college basketball season can seem overwhelming with the amount of games taking place day in and day out. To put it into perspective, there are 353 D1 NCAAB teams that compete in about 33 games a year (give or take). That comes out to a whopping 5,824 games per season; not including the March Madness tournament. Point being, it can become very difficult when it comes time to make your NCAAB plays. Thus far in the 2021-22 NCAAB campaign, there is no evident value that stems from blinding siding with the road, home, favorite, underdog, over, or under plays – bummer, right? However, from a historical perspective we will notice that taking first half UNDERS in games that present relatively high total margins are profitable. Second, it has been detected that conference games are typically closer in margin than the initial point spread might indicate. In short, taking the points in conference competitions is generally never a bad bet.
Saturday NCAAB Picks:
YALE @ AUBURN (T: 70.5) – PICK: 1H UNDER
WAKE FOREST (+10) @ VIRGINIA TECH – PICK: WAKE FOREST
By this point in the NFL season, we have a very good sample size for each team’s strengths, weaknesses, and identities. A handful of teams currently find themselves in the midst of some rather surprising W-L records nearing the halfway point of the 2021 – 22 campaign; some good, and some not so good. This year’s NFL over-achieving awards go out to the Bengals of the AFC and the Cardinals of the NFC. Interestingly enough, both of these squads are lead by recent Heisman Trophy QB’s that were number one overall draft picks in back-to-back years (2018-19). With it now being Week 8 around the NFL, we can rely on not only our eyes, but also the numbers that each team has accumulated thus far. Stats may be a bit skewed in the early weeks due to several factors; a few being a team’s strength of schedule (or lack thereof), or a couple of poor performances that would rather be anomalies for a particular team. You could fill in the blank with whatever variable you’d like; the point is that by this point in the season we can certainly rely on the statistics to paint a clear picture of league wide trends and each team’s performance(s) moving forward. Up to this point, Away Underdogs have been the most profitable teams to bet on ATS, covering at a 57% clip. As far as the totals are concerned, the UNDER has been the more favorable play covering in 56% of the games. Week 8 presents nine match-ups where the road team will serve as the underdog. Last year was the first year that the NFL saw road teams with a better winning percentage outright, not ATS. This year is not only trending in a similar direction but the road teams are once again winning at an alarming rate when having to pack their bags. Although it is by a slight margin, road teams are currently 54-53 overall.
Last night the Houston Astros evened up the the World Series tying the Atlanta Braves one game apiece. A quick and blind play that might be worth taking note of is the total based on the where each game is being played. Minute Maid Park is home to the Astros where left field is only 315ft from home plate; Truist park, where the Braves call home, is a much larger park as far as dimensions are concerned. I believe that we can blindly take the OVER when the Astros are at home and the UNDER when the Braves are at home. The homerun ball is so prevalent and such a crucial factor in today’s game leaving me to purchase stock in the fact that ballparks dimensions can have that much of an influence on the outcome/total for each game. Let’s also not forget to take advantage of the National League vacant DH spot while it still exists (that debate is for a different time as far as the universal designated hitter is concerned). With the Braves having a larger ballpark and the DH being substituted for the pitcher makes me lean towards the UNDERS when these World Series games are held in Atlanta, vice-versa when Houston is hosting. So, if you are lost on which way to lean on your World Series plays and just want some action on the game because, well… just because it’s fun, then I recommend leaning towards the game totals depending on which city each World Series game is played in. Game 3 of the World Series will take place in Atlanta tomorrow night at 7:10 CST on FOX where the O/U is currently set at 8.5.
With college football being well underway, I cannot help but to begin to get antsy for the return of college basketball and all of the drama that comes with it! Currently, I am in the middle of much anticipated read for myself written by Gonzaga Head Coach, Mark Few. Few’s novel encompasses the national obsession that has become Bracketology and March Madness. While this book relates to college basketball annual tournament, it mainly details the mastermind behind Bracketeering, Joe Lunardi.
College basketball officially tips off on November 9th with Kansas vs. Michigan St. and Duke vs. Kentucky as two of the marquee match-ups on day one. Since I’ve mention both Joe Lunardi and Kansas, Lunardi’s preseason bracketology projections are published with all 72 invitees. Obviously his weekly brackets are fluid throughout the season as games are played and team’s identites begin to become more and more transparent as the season plays out. Currently, the four #1 seeds are Gonzaga, Kansas, Texas, and UCLA. Does Joe think that the Big12 is going to be that good this season? Also, is he putting too much stock into UCLA’s Cinderella run last year to the Final Four as an #11 seed to now make them a #1 seed? The beauty about it is, “who knows?!” However I can honestly tell you that no one knows better than one Joe Lunardi. Watch it all shake out as the final bracket comes to fruition for the arrival of the 2022 March Madness tournament come March 15th. As the season commences, look to make your early plays on the UNDER when match-ups occur on a neutral court as players are equipped with early season fresh legs, foreign court = different shooting backdrop, and first game jitters are all variables for early season neutral court games to result in the UNDER.
Click HERE to views CBS’s Preseason Top 25 NCAAB Rankings
Shifting gears a bit, the National League portion of the MLB postseason is set in stone. The top overall NL seed are the San Francisco Giants whereas the NL Wildcard match-up will be played in Los Angeles between the Dodgers and Cardinals on October 6th. As of yesterday, the Cardinals 17-game winning
streak came to an end thanks to the Brewers. Now that the Cardinals have clinched an NL Wildcard birth, look for the baseball universe to level itself out providing the Cardinals with some “L’s” on the horizon along with their motivation factor being poor to weak at best as their postseason spot is already locked up. In lieu of these factors, I believe that there could be some significant value in the Cardinals opponents for the remainder of the 2021 MLB regular season.
Being the NFL junky that I am, I need to get in my NFL two cents for the sake of the post. We are amid Week 4 of the NFL 2021-22 campaign. My Chiefs are 1-2 and the world seems to be ending but I will spare you as the reader on those additional thoughts and emotions. My Week 4 NFL picks reside in San Francisco, Denver, and Los Angeles. This week, I love the 49ers (-2.5) over the Seahawks, the Ravens (+1.5) visiting the Broncos, and the Raiders (+3.5) on the road against the Chargers. You’re welcome, and I digress. I was doing some research the other day on the NFL team’s turnover margin based on their playoff appearance. Last season there were 14 playoff spots available, of those 14 spots 11 of them landed in the top 14 of turnover margin. Is it a coincidence that the majority of the playoff spots go to teams that possess a positive turnover margin? Lets check the 2019 turnover margin stats… The 2019-20 playoffs displayed 10 of the top 12 franchises in turnover margin during that season. Point being, teams with is the upper tier of turnover margin tend to earn a spot in the NFL
Playoffs. We can take this edge and/or stat and make it into a microcosm for the regular season and just simply infer that a team with a greater turnover margin will have value in each and every match-up throughout any given season. For example, this upcoming Week 4 exhibits the Browns visiting the Vikings. The Vikings are 2 point dogs at home; however, they are +3 in turnover margin against the Browns. Here we have a road favorite that has a worse turnover margin than the home dog. You already know which way I am leaning! I believe that their is significant value on the Vikings over the Browns in this Week 4 showdown.
As the MLB regular season begins to wind down, a lot of our attention will shift focus over to the NFL. Until the MLB postseason is underway, the majority of America will be dialed in to the NFL after the annual long-awaited start that is Week 1 of the NFL season. To catch everyone up to speed, the San Diego Padres are vastly under performing based on preseason expectations whereas the San Francisco Giants are out doing themselves based on preseason oddsmakers. The preseason Giant’s win total was set at a whopping 75.5 games won with a 0.1% chance to win this year’s World Series. The Giants eclipsed this total on August 15th against the Rockies. They went OVER their win total with almost two months left in the season; let that one sink in. I digress… listed below are the current World Series winner odds for the 2021 MLB Postseason.
Currently, the Dodgers are set as the leading favorites with the addition of future Hall of Fame pitcher Max Scherzer. Odds aside, come postseason time it is in we as sports gamblers best interest to make our plays on teams that are so called HOT; or at the very least, not bet against them.
As we approach the postseason, it is important to pay attention to the forecasted weather in each participating city since it in fact will be October. Obviously the month of October is absolutely irrelevant to Tampa Bay’s dome stadium when it comes to weather having a potential affect on the game and its outcome. However, weather might be an important factor to consider when making plays on games in New York or Boston. Coming from personal experience, cold weather situations grant the pitcher with the competitive advantage over the hitter 100% of the time. Why? You might ask. When temperatures are considered “cold” the batter is at a disadvantage because of two reasons: first, hitting is a very technical and exact science that is very difficult to master. This already very difficult “art” becomes much more difficult when the batter is having a tough time feeling his bat, body movements, etc. Second, typically the pitcher has been going at it for a handful of innings by this point allowing him to be both in a rhythm and relatively warm. On the other hand, the batter only gets to step in the batters box every ninth hitter and they may not see the ball hit to them for an inning or so. These factors make it difficult for the batter to get their bodies primed to hit a 95 MPH fastball. Think about it – it would be like racing someone of equal speed as yourself but they get to warm up and you do not, you and I both know who is winning that race. The same goes for the pitcher and batter match-up’s. This was the long version of how cold weather gives the pitcher the advantage while the batter is at a disadvantage throughout cold weather MLB games. One last note on postseason baseball; the odds makers and public gamblers tend to overvalue the home team. During the dog-days of summer travel and jet-lag are genuine factors. However, come postseason baseball for these guys the travel factors are much more minute based on the importance of each game, allowing adrenaline to take care of this void.
Making my NCAAF plays the other day, a theory dawned on me that I would like to think could give me a competitive gambling edge that I am eager to share with all of you. We’ll call it the NCAAF Chain Reaction Theory. Note: This theory/edge only works for NCAAF, not NFL. I believe that NFL teams are much more consistent than NCAAF players/teams making the “regression” portion of the theory less significant. In short, the chain reaction theory strives to predict a NCAAF O/U outcome. My inspiration behind this proposition ties into the regression theory and/or linear regression (famously noted from the film Moneyball). The regression theory explains how a player and/or teams immaculate or faulty performance(s) typically come in the form of luck or chance.
Hence, previous outcomes will balance themselves out and be followed up by a performance or trend that differs from one(s) of the past. My theory is somewhat similar (but obviously different). The regression theory applies to all sports whereas mine (as previously stated) applies only to NCAAF. The easiest way to explain this assumption is by taking both teams’ past performances as opposed to a singular team/player’s past performance that the regression theory attempts to explain. Week in and week out there are countless of examples to back this theory up. If we take Team A and Team B Week 2 O/U totals and notice that both teams scores fell under the same OVER or UNDER category, then one would assume that the opposite would be much more likely to occur for Team A and Team B as they both faced off the very next week. Let me give you a real life example: Buffalo @ Nebraska (54.5 O/U) went UNDER. Both teams’ previous match-up’s ended with the total going OVER. I believe that this could be the theory of regression’s “big brother,” if you will. Take a look for these kind of “spots” in your Week 3 NCAAF plays.
My Week 3 NCAAF Picks:
VIRGINIA TECH (+3) @ WEST VIRGINIA – PICK = VIRGINIA TECH
NEVADA @ KANSAS ST. (+2) – PICK = KANSAS ST.
MISSISSIPPI ST. (-165) @ MEMPHIS – PICK = MISSISSIPPI ST. (ml)
America’s past time very well could become just that in the distant future. Once America’s most beloved sport is beginning to trend downward in ratings and viewership; which is… well, everything! Last month the MLB gifted its fans with a nostalgic experience in Dyersville, Iowa. The Yankees and White Sox squared off on a replica field/stadium from the film Field of Dreams starring Kevin Costner. The 2022 MLB campaign is set to continue the Field of Dreams game that will feature the Cubs and Reds. Gladly, this clear PR stunt was quite the success for the MLB and Rob Manfred. I hope and believe that games, ideas, endeavors, etc of this nature will rectify the MLB and all that it represents so that its downward spiral changes its course. To put the MLB and its shortcomings into perspective, last year’s World Series match-up of the Dodgers and Rays captured just 9.8 million views. The 1978 World Series drew an outstanding 44.2 million views! (P. Saunders, 2021) I understand that comparing 2020 and 1978 is like comparing apples and oranges; there is much, much more to occupy us as humans today as opposed to the 70’s. However, if we compare this stat to the very comparable NFL’s Super Bowl than we would see that the NFL is thriving and the MLB is not. In 1978 (Super Bowl XII) the Broncos and Cowboys captivated 78.9 million viewers. Compare this to the most recent Super Bowl between the Bucs and Chiefs that was seen by 96.4 million viewers.
Obviously you and I do not have a crystal ball at our disposal and cannot tell the future of the of the MLB and its entirety. Though, I believe that the MLB and its partners should construct more business proposals of the like of the Field of Dreams ploy that was a clear victory for the MLB and its fans. As far as the here-and-now are concerned, the 2021 MLB crusade has presented us with more than enough of a sample size to make educated plays when gambling on MLB games. Some ordinary statistics that we should be familiar with that have accumulated over the course of the season are as follows: AWAY S/U – 46%, HOME S/U – 54%. FAVORITES – 60%, UNDERDOGS: 40%. However, the real value has came from the AWAY UNDERDOGS on the run line (+1.5); these teams are covering 57% of the time.
These are great plays when you can get these teams at +100 or better even getting +1.5 runs. As for the 2021 O/U trends, they are teeter-tottering at a 50.6% win/loss rate. Hence, those O/U lines have been very sharp all season long; thanks, but I’ll stay away for now. If we are truly itching to make an O/U play then I would advise making them when a home-favorite situation arises with that play being UNDER. One aspect of this angle that has potential for possessing value is the simple fact that the home-favorite has a better than not chance of not batting in the bottom of the 9th inning. Unlike other sports, it is in our best interests to bet against the grain when a “streak” is in occurrence. Baseball is a game of averages; averages tend to even out over time and eventually show their true self/face. As sports gamblers, we should bet against an MLB club that is riding a relatively long winning-streak. Typically, these teams will be favored in each of their current winning-streak games allowing for some value to succumb.
Enjoy this upcoming weekend that is filled with NCAAF galore! Pay attention to a school/program and the amount of seniors that they may have lost from last season. That notation is more important than the name on the front of a programs jersey. For what it is worth, from what I have seen thus far, take FAVORITES in the first half; and if they are down/not covering after the first half then take them in the 2nd half. i.e. UCF over Boise St. (2nd half cover ATS). An example of a favorite that covered the first half already in Week 1 is App St. over E. Carolina. Best of luck! As always, go dogs!!!