Tips & Picks…

betting strategies blog

Hello all,

This post will include a hand-full of sports gambling tips, along with some possible plays to consider for this NCAAF and NFL weekend action. It is important to note that the following sports gambling strategies should be taken with a grain of salt. With that being said, it takes hard work, attention to detail, and doing your “homework” to become a more successful sports handicapper.

TIPS:

  • Use statistics, not trends. This goes hand-in-hand with doing your “homework.” Anyone can tell if a team is good or bad with the eye test. Putting in more effort other than noticing the obvious will pay dividends.
  • Teams who receive an ass-whoopin’ in last weeks competition can pose significant value as the odds makers could potentially be under valuing that particular team.
  • Don’t pay too much attention to the media’s opinions.
  • Always, ALWAYS! take weather into consideration. Unless of course the game is scheduled to be played in a dome.
  • Try to not value player injuries to much once they are ruled as OUT. Typically, these circumstances are already built into the game lines. (I am suspect of this far to often).

PICKS:

  • FRESNO ST. @ BOISE ST (+2.5) – PICK = BOISE ST.
  • MARYLAND (+3) @ INDIANA – PICK = MARYLAND
  • AKRON (+12.5) @ E. MICHIGAN – PICK = AKRON
  • TROY @ GEORGIA SOUTHERN (pk) – PICK = GEORGIA SOUTHERN
  • CHARLOTTE (+14.5) @ MARSHALL – PICK = CHARLOTTE
  • UCLA @ ARIZONA ST. (-12.5) – PICK = ARIZONA ST.
  • APPALACHIAN ST. @ TEXAS ST. (+21.5) – PICK = TEXAS ST.
  • TEMPLE @ HOUSTON (-4) – PICK = HOUSTON
  • KANSAS @ KANSAS ST. (O/U 45.5) – PICK = OVER
  • SAINTS @ BENGALS (+5) – PICK = BENGALS
  • FLACONS @ BROWNS (+4.5) – PICK = BROWNS

Good luck this weekend to all and happy NCAAB season!

Picks, picks, and more picks!

ncaaf espn logo blog

Football of all sorts is officially under way! After last night’s Falcons and Eagles match-up got the 2018 NFL regular season underway. What we learned from Thursday night is that we still don’t know what is and is not a “catch.” We also learned that the Falcons are finally going to have to lean on their defense to produce wins. Lastly, the Eagles will once again be another threat in the juggernaut that the NFC is projected to be this season. Their ceiling is very high considering that Carson Wentz will be returning to the gridiron very soon.

I have made a lot of NCAAF plays for Week 2 of the season. I was a bit gun-shy last week with all of the unpredictability that comes with week 1 match-ups. With that being said, we now have a lot better idea of the makeup of each squad going into week 2.

DUKE @ NORTHWESTERN (-3): The Wildcats of NW looked sharp in their win on the road against a solid Purdue team. Look for the NW run game to be too much for the Blue Devils to handle. Although this game will be close, I foresee NW to win by a touchdown.

GEORGIA ST (+24.5) @ NC ST: Last week we saw NC State look a little shaky in their squeaked out win over an FBS squad in James Madison. Week 3 previews the Wolf-pack hosting the Mountaineers of West Virginia. Look for NC State to be looking ahead to their big match-up in week 3 and have a let down performance against Georgia St.

RUTGERS (+35) @ OHIO ST: Rutgers has bad history against the Buckeyes. However, this 2018 Rutgers squad is still bottom tier in the BIG10 but might be able to compete at a much higher rate. I like to think of this Rutgers team as the 2018 Browns. They will probably lose a fair share of their games, but cover a lot more spreads. That’s really all that matters anyways, right?! Not to mention that Ohio St. is currently showing a lot of “Questionable’s” on their depth chart injury report (including 2 starters) for Saturday’s match-up. Also, same could be said about the Buckeyes as the Wolf-pack. Ohio St. squares off against a solid TCU team in week 3, and may be over shadowing The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.

CLEMSON @ TEXAS A&M (+13): ROAD DOGS, ROAD DOGS, ROAD DOGS! The Aggies are catching 13 points at home to a very good Clemson team. However, TAMU is no slouch themselves. This line just seems to high for an SEC team at home to stay away from. I would never argue with anyone for taking a top tier SEC school at home getting points against an opponent outside of the SEC.

IOWA ST @ IOWA (-190): I like the Hawkeyes on the money line in this particular match-up. Given that it is a big rivalry game for these two foes, I believe that it will be a close one. The line is set at IOWA (-4) and I think Iowa will win by a field goal. It is also worth mentioning that Iowa St. had their week 1 game rained out against Nebraska. Hence, the Cyclones have yet to get those first game jitters out of the way and have yet to work out their week 1 “kinks” (if you will). Iowa is the better football team in this case, and it will show Saturday afternoon.

UTAH @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+10.5): Utah is set to have their biggest game of the season in week 3 against the Washington Huskies. They have had that game marked on their schedule all year. I believe the PAC12 to be a very weak conference this season and I think that it will show in this match-up. Road dogs all day!

Take all of these week 2 picks with a grain of salt and don’t forget to make your week 1 NFL plays for this Sunday. Be wary of what you saw in the preseason from some teams as the preseason does not even come close to telling the full story. Good luck this weekend bettors!

Saying hello to NCAAF, and goodbye to preseason NFL

college football top 25 blog

The wait is finally over! College football has graced us with its presence, while big brother NFL is right around the corner. Last post from the 20th of August, I provided you guys with the preseason NFL power rankings. As for the college kids, here is how the experts foresee who the tops 25 teams in the country are and where they stack up.

NCAAF Preseason Rankings

Much like the NFL, NCAAF is just as difficult (if not more) to intellectually gather which lines are in one’s favor to make a play on. College athletes are much less consistent than those of the professional level(s). Obviously I do not need to get into the Why’s of that statement. It is just the way it is, and the way that it always will be. It should come to no shock to you that I may advise on holding off hitting the “books” (sports books) too hard during Week 1 of the NCAAF season. Compared to the NFL, many of the players that get traded and picked up off waivers have established themselves with a well-known identity, i.e. more consistent. Whereas, in college ball, a team could have a freshman stand out that comes out of nowhere. Or, on the flip side, a highly touted senior shits-the-bed in his finally season. Point being, if Week 1 of the NFL handicapping lines are a flip of a coin, then Week 1 of the NCAAF season is a flip of a coin where the coin lands on its edge. By no means am I saying to not make ANY plays during Week 1, just be very cautious with your money and have a well developed intellect for your gambles.

Now that my theory/disclaimer is out of the way, lets take a look at what some experts are saying about what they believe to be the identity of some of the storied programs in college football.

ALABAMA: Most elite, but way overpriced – considering their current state of QB question marks.

OLE MISS: Undervalued, will pull off some upsets this season – especially with their vicious passing attach led by QB Jordan Ta’amu.

OHIO ST: Can step-in coach Ryan Day be successful? – how will the Urban Meyer suspension influence the Buckeyes performance?

WISCONSIN: Plan of double digit wins for the Badgers – considering they are in the weaker BIG10 division.

CLEMSON:  All in – bet on another playoff birth for the Tigers.

OKLAHOMA: Sooners will not miss a beat with Kyler Murray – besides, there has to be a reason he wanted to return for his Senior season.

MIAMA: Overrated – still have big question marks at the QB position.

GEORGIA: Dawgs will finally trump the Crimson Tide and win SEC – BOLD!

(Courtesy of C. Wilson of ActionNetwork.com)

I would like to leave you with a final thought… Since the NFL is in fact the largest sport across the world that is gambled on, don’t be deterred if you see the line shift in the opposite direction that your leaning towards. Often the line changes based on the large amounts of plays that are placed by “squares” rather than “sharps”. This is typically the only sports that displays line movement occurrences that are not driven by “sharps” alone. Go with your gut, crunch the numbers, and win big!

Today’s picks:

NCAAF

CUSE @ WEST MICHIGAN (+5)

Syracuse is without their starting defensive lineman and on the road. Take the team getting points against a very unproven Syracuse team.

MLB

ORIOLE @ ROYALS (-130)

Starting pitcher for the Royals (Brad Keller) has been their “ace” for the latter portion of their season. These two face off as two of the worst teams in baseball, at the moment. Take the organization at home with their ace on the mound at a good price!