Happy October to all!

The 2019 MLB Playoffs have been anything but dull. Now that we have had the chance to gather a small sample size from the majority of the franchises, we can now begin to develop their “playoff identities” (if you will). However, the eye test may get sports gamblers into trouble, more often than not. Don’t get me wrong, it is imperative that a better gathers a portion of his/her intel based upon their own intuition and instincts. Nevertheless, if you think that the odds-makers are basing their game-lines and money-lines based on the ole’ “eye-test” than you are sorely mistaken. Statistics, especially in baseball are very crucial factors that separate teams, determine wins and losses, and ultimately hold the fate of whether you as a better are going to cover or not. For example, here is something that the “eye-test” does not typically pick up on: Did you know that a pitcher traveling from west-coast to east-coast gives up more home-runs than their average appearance? The west to east travel, in this case, is most relevant considering that a human loses sleep hours when traveling in this direction as opposed to east to west. In fact, in a study conducted by Allada, Severini, & Song, they conclude that an eastern home team returning home to compete against a visiting team that was already in the eastern time zone nullifies the home-field-advantage factor completely. From 1992 – 2011, 54% of MLB home teams win in any given game. The fact that you can take that 54% down to 50/50 just based on travel alone may be the difference in making and cashing in our your MLB playoff plays. As for these playoffs are concerned, I would not argue one bit when leaning towards the Nationals of Washington D.C. when the Dodgers of Los Angela’s come to town. A six hour flight combined with a loss of sleep and/or time is a recipe for a big money-line cash in on the Nats! Look for the Nationals to take game three against the Dodgers this Sunday, October 6th.

I would like to touch on a couple more aspect of gambling on MLB and its playoff’s. First, a lot of these teams hit the “long-ball”… A LOT. To piggy-back on that statement, a lot of these teams’ bullpens are shaky to say the least. Hence, pound those OVERS – especially when a particular pitcher has faced a team multiple times throughout the season. Lastly, don’t forget to take a look at those starting pitcher’s WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched).This stat is much more indicative of a pitcher’s true identity as opposed to ERA and/or overall record. Those stats are for suckers in the gambling realm.

Here is a list of the current money-lines for World Series winners:

ASTROS   +190

DODGERS   +250

YANKEES   +425

CARDINALS   +800

NATIONALS   +1300

TWINS   +1400

RAYS   +1400

BRAVES   +1500

Hi all! While I have been away, I have been studying up and sharpening my betting skills. Through all of this, I certainly have learned a lot. Not only about sports gambling in general, but also how games are played along with their trends.

With that being said, the 2018 Fall Classic is amongst us! This years’ World Series features the Red Sox of Boston squaring off against the Dodgers of Los Angeles. Game 1 begins tonight at 7:10 PM CST. As of now, the Red Sox are the favorites listed at -175 on the money line (Dodgers +140). Interestingly enough, the lines opened up as Boston (-150). Notice how the majority of the money is in favor of the boys in the northeast. In this case, if you like Sale and the Red Sox tonight, you better hurry up and jump on them before their value drops too low for a minimal return. On the other hand, if you like Kershaw and the Dodgers, it might not be a bad idea to see how high that side of the money line could climb to increase your payout (baring a Dodgers win).

In my opinion, I see this particular series going 6 games where the Red Sox come out on top. I think that they have too much talent that trumps all other franchises this season; where it has shown. The Red Sox have only lost two playoff games thus far and ended the regular season with an overall record of 108-54 (MLB best).

My pick for tonight’s game is in your hands. Tonight, take the team that you believe has the more superior pitcher in Kershaw and Sale. I ask you tonight take in account both teams’ bull-pins and experience. Why you ask? Well, it is no secret that the Red Sox have a stronger bull-pin than the Dodgers. However, Kershaw possesses more World Series experience than Sale; hence, leading me to believe that Kershaw may be presented as a “you know what you’re going to get” kind of guy. It is also important to note that Sale has never pitched in a World Series match-up.

Good luck tonight if you wish to make any plays and stay tunes for my Week 9 NFL picks and Week 10 NCAAF picks.

Every year the World Series greets us in late October. More often than not, the two best teams miss out on it. You may have heard a time or two that the baseball playoffs are a complete craps-shoot. Sound familiar? The team that ends up winning the World Series is not necessarily the best team, but more importantly the hottest team at the time.

However, one could make a very strong argument that the two best teams managed to find their way to baseball’s greatest stage this October. The Astros and Dodgers are very similar teams if viewed on paper. They both have a very solid starting rotation, they both possess above-average bullpens, and they both like to score runs. I would like to point out that the Dodgers like to score the majority of their runs via the long-ball; whereas the Astros tend to manufacture their runs with their speed. So what do we know about teams that have solid starting pitching? They love getting you those UNDERS! I did some digging. Last year’s seven-game fairytale ending for the Chicago Cubs was certainly one to remember. One other take-away I would like to point out is that five of the seven games hit the UNDER. Why is this? I am not 100% certain, of course. However, I am certain that you have an AL and NL team face off every year in the World Series. Interleague match-ups occur far less frequently than AL-vs-AL match-ups; vice-versa. Understand that these hitters for the Astros and Dodgers rarely (if not ever) get the opportunity to face the Clayton Kershaw’s of the NL (Los Angeles’s Game 1 projected starter) and the Dallas Keuchel’s of the AL (Houston’s Game 1 projected starter). The 2017 MLB All-Star game provided us with a whopping three total runs scored. Probably because these hitters do not see the interleague pitchers as often. NOTE: Good pitching beats good hitting! Do not be afraid of that “7” next to the O/U. Bet the UNDER in tonight’s Game 1 showdown!

GAME #1 PREDICTION:

ASTROS – 4

DODGERS – 1

As of recent, I began to log all of my plays in a notebook. Typically, I will write down the game, line, my pick, and amount that I wagered. Through this, I have found that I am able to see which sports and plays I am having more success with than others. Not only does this tip help keep track of your bets and your win/loss ratio. It also lets you take a step back and analyze yourself as a sports gambler. Do you find that you are having more success with picking the OVER/UNDERS? Are you having more success picking underdogs over the favorites? Do you feel that your plays are paying off in the money lines? Do you seem to make more money betting NCAAF over NFL? So on and so forth. These are the simple, but very important things that you must look at and keep track of if you are interested in making money over a long period of time. By no means is it easy to win in this business. That is why we have to utilize all of our resources and take advantage of them if we can.

Good luck this week and you can blame me if all of the World Series games hit the OVER!