WNBA showed us “the way,” NFL it’s your turn…

2020 nfl draft blog

On April 17th, history was made after the WNBA hosted the first ever live, virtual draft. Oddly enough, I had to tune in to view the draft. Maybe I was curious to see how the whole “virtual” thing would go, or perhaps I am craving some fashion of a live sporting event; regardless of the sport. With that being said, the draft as a whole was rather awkward, in my opinion. Imagining this should not be too big of challenge as the WNBA commissioner was literally announcing pick after pick from her living room. In the league’s defense, what are they supposed to do. At this point in World History, our hands are tightly bound limiting our access to our resources. Nevertheless, the NFL draft is only days away! (April 23rd). I am anticipating what Roger Goodell and the rest of the league rolls out there and what they have ultimately learned from the pros and cons that the WNBA draft possessed.

Mel Kiper’s latest 4.0 mock draft has been released with Joe Burrow remaining as the first overall pick to the Bengal’s. Click for a clear list of his 2020 mock draft… Mel Kiper’s NFL Mock Draft 4.0

Obviously we are not all experts at breaking down each and every pick and its overall grade. So how you we semi-accurately analyze a teams’ draft grade through the average Joe’s eyes? Aaron Lesher of Hog Haven points out that many of the top performers in the NFL are not 1st round picks. For instance, in 2017 the top rushing leaders in the NFL, top to bottom, averaged at the 100th overall pick. That pick falls within the 4th round! Not sufficient enough? How about the top DB’s from that year averaged out at the 156th overall pick! That pick lies within the 5th round. As for the pass rushers of the league, the best sack artists from 2017 averaged in the 56th round, 2nd round guys. Are you noticing the trend here? The vast majority of these athletes are not 1st round picks. Hence, come this Thursday and this weekend, look to see which teams are grabbing those late round treasures. I believe that a lot of gamblers put too much stock in a teams’ first and second round picks because they are the “sexy” and well-known college super-stars. However, if you can do your research and hone in on an organization’s late round picks along with their undrafted signee’s than you will have a much better idea of what kind of season they are in store for. Obviously there are a lot more factors that go into a teams’ win-loss record at the end of a season other than the draft. Nevertheless, knowing how to further analyze the draft in greater detail than the guy next to you can assist you when making plays on the preseason team win/loss totals, ect.

*Possessing the final draft spot never felt so good, GO CHIEFS!

COVID-19 & Sports Gambling…

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COVID-19 (corona virus) has impacted many individuals far and wide. The virus has affected each of us in its own unique way(s). Unfortunately, some of you are out of a job because of it; or even worse, have lost a loved one in lieu of this mysterious, yet contagious virus. I truly am thankful that I have not fallen victim to either of these two scenarios. Nevertheless, if you are spending your valuable time sifting through this blog than you too have probably been negatively affected by this pandemic. Obviously all of our sports have been taken away from us until further notice!!! And where there are no sports, there is no gambling. In fact, Casino bookie stocks have dropped, on average, 63% since the pandemic made its way to the states.

Along with many of you, I always look forward to MLB’s Opening Day. The timeless game has now become timed-out. So when will the season begin? For starters, there is much more than meets the eye when orchestrating the continuation of America’s pastime. The logistical side of the sport requires far more work than just a simple start-up date. Will the season be shortened? If so, will broken records be eligible? Will players and virus blogcoaches obtain full salaries? Will double-headers become a normalcy? So on and so forth. According to Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports, he believes that the MLB schedule in its entirety will need to be reconstructed. As far as I’m concerned, the season will have to be shortened. The league cannot allow for the season to extend into the winter months. Think about baseball games being played at Target Field (Minneapolis, MN) in the middle of January… Yeah, no thanks. Back to the anticipated, yet artificial MLB Opening Day; the players union and the association are hopeful for a June 1st start to the season. If the season were not shortened with its original 162 game schedule, than we would be watching playoff baseball in the month of December with a June 1st first pitch. It will be the MLB’s duty to decide if a 2020 All-Star Game/All-Star break is necessary, or if all 162 games are needed to complete the 2020 MLB season. These unanswered questions will be very interesting to take note of as they unfold. Now, if you are a baseball freak and you are on the verge of gouging out your eyes; than there is in fact a temporary “baseball-fix” for people like yourself. CBS Sports did us the honor of simulating each and every Opening Day game with superficial box scores. Click HERE to see how your team would have done on Opening Day!

I would like to use this platform to recognize those whom have passed away, been laid-off, missed out on their athletic seasons, and all others whom have been negatively affected in the ever bit slightest during these unusual times.

1-800-DONT-BUY

lock of week blog

Have you ever been on the receiving end of an ad that seems too good to be true? Well, a lot of times this is in fact the case. Same holds true for the so called, “Sports Gambling Prophecies” that we listen to and watch from time-to-time. You may have heard that a sports gambling professional handicapper can win you over 80% of your point-spread plays, or that they have knowledge about a particular game that no one else is aware of. All I can rebuke back to these individuals is, LIES LIES LIES!!! These situations are a classic form of “buyer beware.” In fact, Bleacher Report’s Thomas Moreland quotes, “The service will tell 10 people to bet on Washington [for example] and 10 people to bet Dallas. Then they call the 10 winning individuals back to tell them, “See! I told you so, we have a significant edge on these games all the time and I will keep you winning!” This type of scam concludes in a winner each and every week, but also the same amount of losses that they fail to mention. If a professional handicapper can “honestly” tell you that they gave the correct pick for every game in Week 8 of the NFL season, then they will. By “honesty,” I am recalling the fact they give out both winning sides of the point spread pick to their clients. The only aspect that I would look to the “experts” for when it comes to sports handicapping advice is as a “self-checker.” By “self-checker” I mean, if you are on the fence on a particular play and look to see what the “experts” are saying; then by all means, use them as a point of reference when making your own plays. The only true way to be a successful handicapper is by doing your extensive homework/research sprinkled with a hint of luck.

Before I leave you, I would like to bring to the reader’s attention a philosophy that recently came to my attention. What I find humorous about this next ideology is that I have fallen victim to it all too often. Have you ever said to yourself, ” Oh, this play is my “lock” of the week!” Well, I have… many times. Why do we say this to ourselves when we obviously, or subconsciously know that gambling is a very difficult endeavor to concur? A wise man once told me, “Why do you think your play is a “lock” when another 50% of the general public on that particular game like the other side of your “lock?” This question was quite the head-scratcher for myself. Since this moment, it is an absolute must for me to find out why someone could possibly prefer the other side of the line than I do. By doing so, I simply just Google something like “Why should I bet on the Miami Dolphins versus the Buffalo Bills.” Once we as betters can understand the other side of the line, then we will be able to truly distinguish who is on the more advantageous side of the betting market. Keep your friends close, but enemies closer!!!

One last thought, gamble on those underdogs in your NCAAB plays. We have no clue how good or bad a team is at the start of sports seasons… hence, take those points!!!

Super Bowl 53 strategy

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Anticipation for each Super Bowl builds up immediately following the conclusion of the Conference Championships. The narrative for Super Bowl LIII is no different. What is so intriguing about this particular match-up is that it features the highly decorated veteran QB (Tom Brady) versus the young-gun, unproven QB in Jared Goff. To take this match-up a step further, Bill Belichick (NE Head Coach) is 66 years old, whereas Sean McVay (LA Head Coach) is only 33. Literally half his age, McVay will have to go toe-to-toe with one of the greatest coaches that the National Football League has ever seen.

When making plays this Sunday, there are a few factors to keep in mind. Although I am not a huge fan of looking too deep in the past for my sports gambling insight; however, the 53 all time Super Bowl trends could in fact provide useful knowledge that may correlate to Super Bowl 53. For instance…

Obviously there have been 53 Super Bowl’s played with the modern NFL era. Of those 53 games, the underdog has covered 24 for of them with 2 pushes. That leaves the favorites covering 27 of those 53 match-ups. The favorite covers 53% of the time. Not that significant right? At least not significant enough to make a “blind” play on the game. However, in the last 11 Super Bowl’s, the underdog has covered 9 out of those 11 games. This comes out to an 82% covering clip. Now this statistic may hold some significance. By no means am I saying to not fancy the Patriots. With this being said, have some solid statistical reasoning to back the favorite in the Patriots if you do so. If the last 11 years have taught us anything, it is that the underdogs prevail in the end.

Now for some OVRE/UNDER advice. In the 53 years of the Super Bowl, only one match-up did not offer an OVER/UNDER (Super Bowl I). Since then, 27 of the 52 have ended with the OVER (52%). Again, not that significant; right? Looking once more at the past 11 years, you will see that 7 of those 11 contests ended in the OVER (63%). Again, this is another statistic that can provide us with some serious edge against the bookies.

For now, the current lines that are available for Super Bowl LIII are as follow:

PATRIOTS (-2.5 / -155) | RAMS (+2.5 / +125)

OVER/UNDER (58)

As always, best of luck and happy Super Bowl weekend!

And then there were 4…

Alright, so I first have to ask who you guys like in San Antonio for this year’s Final Four? Michigan? Loyola-Chi? Kansas? or Villanova? If you are not an advocate fan of either of these programs than the obvious answer is Villanova to win, but you WANT Loyola as this years’ Cinderella to win… Don’t you?!

As for the betting tips, this one is a toughie. “Why is that?”, you may ask. I am here to tell you all that these lines a very sharp. Meaning that the odds-makers did their jobs when configuring these point-spreads. For instance, in the Loyola-Chi v. Michigan match-up the point-spread opened up at MICH -5.5; for now, the line remains at that margin. Next, the Kansas v. Villanova match-up opened up at NOVA -5. Can you guess what the current point-spread sits at? Yep, +/- 5, you guessed it! However, there may in fact be a loop hole for these two match-ups, and it lies within the OVER/UNDER category. You see, these teams are very well rested and have had ample time to game plan schematically on the defensive end for their opponent(s). Take that and sprinkle on the lack of shooting accuracy due to nerves and you got yourself a perfect recipe for tomorrows games to hit that UNDER. Currently, the Loyola-Chi v. Michigan O/U is 129.5; whereas the Kansas v. Villanova line is at 154.5.

I recently just got back from Vegas. Unfortunately I made more money on the craps tables than in the sports-books. With that being said, I did learn a valuable lesson that I plan to continuously search for. This example occurred during the Loyola-Chi v. Nevada game in the Sweet 16. The Ramblers were one point dogs and had a favorable O/U line that I liked. I really wanted to make a play on the Loyola to cover straight up. Then I got to thinking: “Hey, if Loyola covers the spread, the game is more than likely to end up hitting the under, since they like to play at a very slow pace.” Both the Ramblers won and the under hit for my sake! Moral of the story here is to be knowledgeable about the teams you are gambling on and look for those correlated parlays to hit. Parlays are tough but big money makers if played correctly.

 

NBA: Switching gears over the advanced hardwood, I will leave you with this. As the NBA playoffs begin to take shape; utilize a lot of the similar tactics/tools that I mentioned in my Let the Madness (Almost) Begin! post for your NBA playoffs plays.

CAUTION: Be weary of the Houston Rockets recent playoff woe’s mixed with a couple of bad shooting nights form beyond the three. This is a perfect storm for a losing equation, in my opinion. It takes a lot for me to say this being a Rockets fanatic. Hence, I sure as hell hope that I am wrong. I will say that their defense is much improved and Mike D’Antoni has finally learned the equation for winning with his squad.

As always, good luck and strive to learn from each and every one of your plays win or lose.

Not quite March…

Today in the world is Championship Sunday. Many of you, including myself, are watching the NFL conference championships today. However, I am not writing to discuss these two match-ups today and night. No, rather I would like to shift your mind over to some NCAAB action. We are now in the heart of the 2018 NCAAB season. We are beginning to find out who is legit and who are perspiring into pretenders. Once college basketball teams get into the grit of their respective conferences’ season; you begin to learn a lot about a team’s identity and strengths/weaknesses.

With that being said, March Madness is less than 2 months away! I will be headed to Vegas this March to visit my father and spend a fair amount of time at the sports books. *(Suggestions on which sports book to visit would be much appreciated.)* Anyways, I am a huge college basketball connoisseur and label March as my favorite sporting month of the calendar year. I do not necessarily have a “favorite” team, it is just my favorite sport to watch, I suppose. I had a buddy a few years back who balled at Tulsa U. so I rooted for them for a bit. He is with the Suns organization now (Shaquille Harrison, shout out).

If you are like me, you have been held victim to those crappy years of busted brackets; with some good years along the way, I might add. We will get into March Madness and our brackets once the time inches closer. I only speak of it due to my annual excitement. Although March Madness is still in the distance, we can still become better “betters” to prepare for this coming March. Here a few tips to keep in mind when making your NCAAB plays. Note: these tips may be utilized come postseason time; but they are more accurate during regular season competition.

NCAAB Gambling Tips:

1. Use caution when taking teams that may be looking ahead in their seasons. For example, let’s use the scenario of teams in the Big East. Villanova has owned the Big East for the past few years now. With this being said, you may notice that teams who have Villanova scheduled the match-up after their current one may be “looking ahead.” Think of it this way. Every team in the country has 200% of fuel for every 2 games they play. If DePaul is playing St. John’s on Tuesday and Villanova that next Saturday; they may use 85% of their fuel for the St. John’s game and save 115% for the “big” Villanova game. I love taking teams getting points when I have a hunch that the favorite may be looking ahead

2. If you want to think of this next tip as the opposite of looking ahead, that would seem suitable. Think of the 200% effort for 2 games rule in this tip as well. Using the same scenario, but reverse: say DePaul played Villanova on Tuesday in a nail-biting loss (74-70), that same Saturday they match-up against St. John’s. How much of that 200% do you think that an average DePaul team used against one of the best teams in the country in Villanova? The answer is a lot! Hence, DePaul may only have 70% of their 200% left against St. John’s. That is not a winning equation in my book. With this being said; please, please, and please do not fall in love with a team who plays well against a really good team.

3. Next, this tip is more of a personal opinion for me and my gambling technique(s). When taking a look at the posted game lines. Try and steer away from those lines that hover around the 5.0 – 7.0 area. Why, you ask? Have you ever noticed that a lot of NCAAB games tend to end with one team continuously intentionally fouling to grab more possessions? I like to stay weary of these games because I do not want my plays to cover, and more importantly, not cover! due to garbage fouling time. You see it happen all too often.

Sin City – 7/23/17

vegas blog 2

I was road-triping with my girlfriend the other week as we were headed to Scottsdale, AZ to visit my father and step-mother. We made a pit stop in Las Vegas, or commonly known as “Sin City.” Although my stay in Vegas did not even make it to a full 24-hours, I still managed to place a bet at Venetian’s sports book.

Naturally, I observed the upcoming MLB games for that particular day and stumbled across one that caught my eye for what ever reason. I noticed that the Chicago White Sox were visiting the Chicago Cubs. Pitching that game for the White Sox was Miguel Gonzalez (veteran) with an ERA on the season of 4.85. For the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks was named their starter for the day (not a veteran). Although Hendricks has a much more favorable ERA over Gonzalez (3.70), I possess the opinion that he is a bit overrated.

There are three important factors that compelled me to place this bet as opposed to any of the other games for that day (7/24/17). First, the Cubs were “over-favored,” if you will, for this particular matchup. At the time I opened the bet, the Cubs were a -265 favorite, whereas the White Sox were sitting at +220. Without a doubt, I felt that the risk was worth the reward. Second, the Cubs were hosting the White Sox at Wrigley Field giving them the “home-field” advantage. However, this is hardly a home-field advantage situation since both teams are located in Chicago. Last, the White Sox were in the middle of a rugged nine game losing skid. Hence, they were bound to break out of it at some point. After all, what better way to end your losing streak than doing so against your rivals in a very much winnable game?! Notice: I am not advising to gamble on teams that are on long losing streaks. I simply placed the bet baring other factors before this one. The circumstances that were presented in this particular event allowed me to believe that the White Sox had a decent chance of escaping their nine game “funk.”

It is safe to assume that I was later able to cash this ticket in at the sports book as a winner. Otherwise I would not be sharing this short story with you all. The point being, don’t be afraid to place a few bets on the underdog. Sure they are not supposed to win; but if you truly believe that the reward outweighs the risk then you have yourself a good bet! For instance, on this particular ticket I put down $42 to win $92. That means that the little slip of paper shown in the slideshow below was worth $134. On the flip side, since the Cubs were favored at -265 according to the money-line, then that same $42 that I put down would only win me about $16. This would make that same ticket only worth $58.

Here are a few pictures from our short, yet sweet, stay in Las Vegas…

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For tomorrow (8/15/17)…

MLB Picks:

KC (-117) @ OAK — I like Oakland in this game because they are at home and throwing an arm that they rarely face. The Royals do not hit new pitchers well.

HOU (-110) @ ARZ — I like Houston because they are pitching Brad Peacock who is 10-1 on the season. Also, the Astro’s are facing Zach Grenke tonight, this will give them the opportunity to see someone not as skilled and sharp tomorrow. Think of it as trying to run a mile in under six minutes one day, and the very next day being asked to run the same mile in seven minutes. You are more likely to finish on time in the seven-minute mile even if you do not finish the six-minute mile in time.

CWS @ LAD (-335) — I like the White Sox pick in this particular matchup just because of how high the money line discrepancy is. Typically, if the Dodgers are favored by this much then Clayton Kershaw would be pitching. Wrong! Alex Wood is scheduled the start. Although Wood is having a Cy Young caliber type year, he is always suspect to a loss with his average fastball. Also, guess who is pitching for the White Sox?! Yep, Miguel Gonzalez. Just a thought.

Have fun and good luck. See ya next time better’s!


***Keep in mind, a monkey could just pick all of the favorites for tomorrow’s games. However, I am factoring in the money-line and whether or not I believe the reward outweighs the risk when choosing underdogs.