lock of week blog

Have you ever been on the receiving end of an ad that seems too good to be true? Well, a lot of times this is in fact the case. Same holds true for the so called, “Sports Gambling Prophecies” that we listen to and watch from time-to-time. You may have heard that a sports gambling professional handicapper can win you over 80% of your point-spread plays, or that they have knowledge about a particular game that no one else is aware of. All I can rebuke back to these individuals is, LIES LIES LIES!!! These situations are a classic form of “buyer beware.” In fact, Bleacher Report’s Thomas Moreland quotes, “The service will tell 10 people to bet on Washington [for example] and 10 people to bet Dallas. Then they call the 10 winning individuals back to tell them, “See! I told you so, we have a significant edge on these games all the time and I will keep you winning!” This type of scam concludes in a winner each and every week, but also the same amount of losses that they fail to mention. If a professional handicapper can “honestly” tell you that they gave the correct pick for every game in Week 8 of the NFL season, then they will. By “honesty,” I am recalling the fact they give out both winning sides of the point spread pick to their clients. The only aspect that I would look to the “experts” for when it comes to sports handicapping advice is as a “self-checker.” By “self-checker” I mean, if you are on the fence on a particular play and look to see what the “experts” are saying; then by all means, use them as a point of reference when making your own plays. The only true way to be a successful handicapper is by doing your extensive homework/research sprinkled with a hint of luck.

Before I leave you, I would like to bring to the reader’s attention a philosophy that recently came to my attention. What I find humorous about this next ideology is that I have fallen victim to it all too often. Have you ever said to yourself, ” Oh, this play is my “lock” of the week!” Well, I have… many times. Why do we say this to ourselves when we obviously, or subconsciously know that gambling is a very difficult endeavor to concur? A wise man once told me, “Why do you think your play is a “lock” when another 50% of the general public on that particular game like the other side of your “lock?” This question was quite the head-scratcher for myself. Since this moment, it is an absolute must for me to find out why someone could possibly prefer the other side of the line than I do. By doing so, I simply just Google something like “Why should I bet on the Miami Dolphins versus the Buffalo Bills.” Once we as betters can understand the other side of the line, then we will be able to truly distinguish who is on the more advantageous side of the betting market. Keep your friends close, but enemies closer!!!

One last thought, gamble on those underdogs in your NCAAB plays. We have no clue how good or bad a team is at the start of sports seasons… hence, take those points!!!

Don’t fall victim to “Week-two-itis”

nfl 100 year blog

Week 2 of the NFL season just doesn’t seem to have the “glimmer” to it as Week 1. Fans, coaches, players, media, you name it are all hyped up and ready to go for Week 1. Hence, making Week 2 seem not as important; when it reality, A teams’ Week 2 WIN or LOSS is just as important as their Week 1 WIN or LOSS. This “hangover”effect may also find its way into the hearts and minds of the casual sports gambler. You see, many (including myself at some points) fall victim to Week-two-itis. What is Week-two-itis you ask? Simply put, sports gamblers alike will often take the whole grocery list when it comes to Week 1 NFL results. Whereas is reality, we as fans, spectators, and gamblers of football should take Week 1’s results with a grain of salt and not the whole grocery list, as previously alluded to. Week-two-itis plays tricks in our heads that gives us one small sample size of a teams’ previous performance and making that one performance out to be the end-all-be-all of the rest of their respective season. Getting to the point, stay true to your sports gambling intuition and knowledge that you have possessed over the years. Do not let one week of competition cause you to throw everything that you know out the window. Analyze, study, research, and go with your heart is the process (in Layman’s terms). If you only analyze and skip steps two, three, and four, you are missing out on 75% of laying down a solid play.










The patriots simply just do not play well in Miami, for whatever reason… In fact, the Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Miami. AB TB nfl blog

The ‘Boys and ‘Skins like to score against one another… In fact, 3 of the last 4 games in this series have gone OVER.

On the flip side, the Jaguars and Texans do not like scoring against one another… In fact, 3 of the last 4 games in this series have gone UNDER.

NCAAF preseason Top 25 reaction…

top25 ncaaf blog

August 19th brought us a first glance at the college football preseason Top 25 poll. The first four teams mentioned include: #1 CLEMSON – #2 ALABAMA – #3 GEORGIA – #4 OKLAHOMA. COLLEGE FOOTBALL PRESEASON TOP 25

If you open the link above, you will notice that the ACC has 3 teams listed, the BIG 10 has 7 teams, the BIG 12 has 3 teams, the PAC 12 has 5 teams listed, the SEC has 6 teams listed, and the field has 1 team listed ( #17 UCF). If you are in the same boat as me you will be scratching your head about the BIG 10 gaining 7 of the 25 teams in the preseason Top 25 poll. For instance, of the 14 members of the BIG 10 football conference, 9 competed in last seasons’ bowl games. Of those 9 teams only 4 won their games. Looking ahead at the BIG 10 conference, I believe that the majority of games played within the BIG 10 are going to be very competitive, considering the alleged “potential” that the preseason rankings allude to within this conference. I would lean more towards siding with the dogs in BIG 10 competition this season and take all of the points that you can get. If what they are saying is accurate and half of this conference is among the Top 25 then we should assume that games within this conference are going to be small in margin and competitive. Besides, the BIG 10 is a smash-mouth, lower scoring conference anyways. TAKE THE POINTS BIG 10 FANS! heisman hopefulls blog

Stepping outside the BIG 10, a few sleeper teams that I have read on and caught wind of to keep your eye on this upcoming season may include: Virginia Tech, Minnesota, TCU, Washington State, and Missouri. After watching Virginia Tech the past few seasons, you can just tell that they are on the brink of greatness. Maybe this is the season where they can get over that hump. WEEK 1: @ BOSTON COLLEGE (+3.5). Now, Minnesota is apart of that alleged BIG 10 “powerhouse” that some are foreshadowing. Minnesota reminds me a lot of the Virginia Tech of the BIG 10. Last season, The Golden Gophers finished the season off strong with wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, along with a respectable bowl win over Georgia Tech. WEEK 1: vs. SOUTH DAKOTA ST. (+12.5). Next, the TCU Horned Frogs were a total let down team last season. As the preseason 16th ranked team in the country, TCU went out and finished 7-6 with a loss to Kansas. However, the old adage might be true of a bad performance is usually followed by a good performance in the sports world (vice-versa). Look for the Horned Frogs to have a bounce back season and cover the majority of their games this season. WEEK 1: ARKANSAS PINE-BLUFF (+-N/A). The Washington St. Cougars took the college football universe by storm last season. This squad basically came out of no where, and do not expect them to slow down. Even though their 2018 drafted QB Gardner Minshew is no more, Head Coach Mike Leach finally has this program headed in the right direction. WEEK 1: vs. NEW MEXICO ST. (+32.5). Finally, Mizzou may still be going through their BIG 12 to SEC growing pains, nevertheless, the future is looking bright. 2018 QB standout, Drew Lock, put the Tigers on the college football map. Behind center for Missouri this upcoming season will be Kelly Bryant, former Clemson Tiger sensation – I wonder if he has an obsession with Tigers or something?… I believe that this is the season where Mizzou finally adjusts to the SEC style of play and can compete in the SEC East and look the part in the juggernaut of a conference in the SEC. WEEK 1: vs. WYOMING (+17.5).

NFL WEEK 1 Notes:

Week 1 of 2018 in the NFL concluded with the favorites and underdogs both finished 7 of 14 ATS (with 2 pushes). Hence, no significant value/edge there, right? As for the over/under’s, 9 of the 16 match-ups ended with the UNDER hitting. Maybe some slight edge or value here, but still not enough to get my ears perked up. However, you will notice from Week 1 of the previous season that we may be able to find an edge/value when it comes to parlaying ATS with OVER/UNDER’s. Of the 14 games (again, disclaiming the 2 pushed) 6 of which concluded with the favorite covering the spread and the under coming through. That is pretty impressive concidering that you would have had almost a 50/50 chance of hitting a 2-prop parlay with the favorite/under in Week 1 of last season. Now there is some significant edge/value! If we can make a play that gives us about a 50/50 shot at hitting, when in theory is typically offered at 3/1, then that is some serious value. You’re welcome and good luck – HAPPY FOOTBALL SEASON TO ALL!

I hope that you can take and use this information for some usage towards your upcoming NCAAF plays. The College Football season kicks off this Saturday at 6pm CST headlining the Sunshine State rivals MIAMI @ FLORIDA (-7).

It’s only preseason, but we’re still excited!

preseason nfl blog

Tonight kicks off the 2019 Preseason of the NFL. Eleven games are featured tonight whereas a lot of eyes will be on the NFL’s number 1 overall pick in Kyler Murray. Many first year quarterbacks, including Murray, will have their first taste of the NFL spotlight. With this being said, look to see how comfortable each quarterback looks in the pocket, their accuracy, leadership abilities, arm strength, and so on. For NFL veterans, preseason football is more-or-less a fast paced practice. However, for NFL rookies, this is their opportunity to display their talents leaving the viewer with a much better idea of their true ability. Why is this important? Maybe a rookie stood out to you as you were watching one preseason match-up. This athlete might end up being a solid 8th round “sleeper” pick for your fantasy football squad. kyler murray blog

For those who do not pay too much attention after the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds of your draft have concluded; below are the top picks by position.






Here is a list of your potential Fantasy Football Draft picks FF DRAFT CHEAT SHEET

Once the preseason concludes and we can begin to gamble on “real” games, there are a few historical trends to keep in mind while making your Week 1 NFL plays (only Week 1). The first scenario relates only to teams that of which won 7 or more games during the 2018 NFL season. 7+ win teams from the previous season are only 40% ATS in the first week of action as road dogs. The second scenario involves teams that won 6 or fewer games in their previous season. In Week 1 of the NFL season, teams whom acquired 6 or fewer wins are 60% ATS the spread as road underdogs. What does this tell us? It clearly shows that odds makers and trendy line movements over evaluate a franchise based on their previous seasons’ performance.

Current Super Bowl LIV Winner Odds:




RAMS +1200

BROWNS +1200

EAGLES +1300



Super Bowl 53 strategy

blog superbowl 53

Anticipation for each Super Bowl builds up immediately following the conclusion of the Conference Championships. The narrative for Super Bowl LIII is no different. What is so intriguing about this particular match-up is that it features the highly decorated veteran QB (Tom Brady) versus the young-gun, unproven QB in Jared Goff. To take this match-up a step further, Bill Belichick (NE Head Coach) is 66 years old, whereas Sean McVay (LA Head Coach) is only 33. Literally half his age, McVay will have to go toe-to-toe with one of the greatest coaches that the National Football League has ever seen.

When making plays this Sunday, there are a few factors to keep in mind. Although I am not a huge fan of looking too deep in the past for my sports gambling insight; however, the 53 all time Super Bowl trends could in fact provide useful knowledge that may correlate to Super Bowl 53. For instance…

Obviously there have been 53 Super Bowl’s played with the modern NFL era. Of those 53 games, the underdog has covered 24 for of them with 2 pushes. That leaves the favorites covering 27 of those 53 match-ups. The favorite covers 53% of the time. Not that significant right? At least not significant enough to make a “blind” play on the game. However, in the last 11 Super Bowl’s, the underdog has covered 9 out of those 11 games. This comes out to an 82% covering clip. Now this statistic may hold some significance. By no means am I saying to not fancy the Patriots. With this being said, have some solid statistical reasoning to back the favorite in the Patriots if you do so. If the last 11 years have taught us anything, it is that the underdogs prevail in the end.

Now for some OVRE/UNDER advice. In the 53 years of the Super Bowl, only one match-up did not offer an OVER/UNDER (Super Bowl I). Since then, 27 of the 52 have ended with the OVER (52%). Again, not that significant; right? Looking once more at the past 11 years, you will see that 7 of those 11 contests ended in the OVER (63%). Again, this is another statistic that can provide us with some serious edge against the bookies.

For now, the current lines that are available for Super Bowl LIII are as follow:

PATRIOTS (-2.5 / -155) | RAMS (+2.5 / +125)


As always, best of luck and happy Super Bowl weekend!

Wildcard winners love hittin’ the road

Image result for nfl playoffs

3 of the 4 wildcard winners from the opening week of the NFL playoffs came from – wait for it… on the road and underdogs. It is also important to note that 3 of those first 4 games hit the UNDER total. Digging a bit deeper, you will notice that the only favorite to win last week (Cowboys) game hit the OVER total. With this being said, history has a funny way of repeating itself. Hence, if you like a favorite in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs than don’t be to hesitant to go with the OVER as well. Same could be said on the flip side, if you are like me and love picking dogs, then make a play on the UNDER for that/those particular match-ups.

Looking ahead at the particular match-ups…

AFC Playoff picture: Colts @ Chiefs (-5) & Chargers @ Patriots (-4)

NFC Playoff picture: Cowboys @ Rams (-6.5) & Eagles @ Saints (-7.5)

No surprise here whereas all 4 home teams are the favorite. However, which home team is most suspect to fall short this Saturday and Sunday? That is for you to interpret, but keep in mind the historical notes listed above. It may also be worth mentioning that each of the 4 lines have shifted in favor of all of the road dogs. For example: the Eagles @ Saints line opened at 9.5 and is now down to 7.5. Keeping mental notes like this can show you where the general public stands on these divisional match-ups.

Here are some NFL playoff angles that cover almost 65% of the time. (John D. Rothschild)

1. Road teams that win outright in first week have trouble covering in second road game. Key work here is road team.

2. Rematches of non divisional opponents during regular season. Loser in first match-up typically covers. (i.e. Eagles @ Saints in Week 11. Saints won 48-7. The play is on the Eagles despite the large deficit in Week 11.

Good luck this weekend and Go Chiefs!!!

Tips & Picks…

betting strategies blog

Hello all,

This post will include a hand-full of sports gambling tips, along with some possible plays to consider for this NCAAF and NFL weekend action. It is important to note that the following sports gambling strategies should be taken with a grain of salt. With that being said, it takes hard work, attention to detail, and doing your “homework” to become a more successful sports handicapper.


  • Use statistics, not trends. This goes hand-in-hand with doing your “homework.” Anyone can tell if a team is good or bad with the eye test. Putting in more effort other than noticing the obvious will pay dividends.
  • Teams who receive an ass-whoopin’ in last weeks competition can pose significant value as the odds makers could potentially be under valuing that particular team.
  • Don’t pay too much attention to the media’s opinions.
  • Always, ALWAYS! take weather into consideration. Unless of course the game is scheduled to be played in a dome.
  • Try to not value player injuries to much once they are ruled as OUT. Typically, these circumstances are already built into the game lines. (I am suspect of this far to often).


  • AKRON (+12.5) @ E. MICHIGAN – PICK = AKRON
  • KANSAS @ KANSAS ST. (O/U 45.5) – PICK = OVER

Good luck this weekend to all and happy NCAAB season!

Picks, picks, and more picks!

ncaaf espn logo blog

Football of all sorts is officially under way! After last night’s Falcons and Eagles match-up got the 2018 NFL regular season underway. What we learned from Thursday night is that we still don’t know what is and is not a “catch.” We also learned that the Falcons are finally going to have to lean on their defense to produce wins. Lastly, the Eagles will once again be another threat in the juggernaut that the NFC is projected to be this season. Their ceiling is very high considering that Carson Wentz will be returning to the gridiron very soon.

I have made a lot of NCAAF plays for Week 2 of the season. I was a bit gun-shy last week with all of the unpredictability that comes with week 1 match-ups. With that being said, we now have a lot better idea of the makeup of each squad going into week 2.

DUKE @ NORTHWESTERN (-3): The Wildcats of NW looked sharp in their win on the road against a solid Purdue team. Look for the NW run game to be too much for the Blue Devils to handle. Although this game will be close, I foresee NW to win by a touchdown.

GEORGIA ST (+24.5) @ NC ST: Last week we saw NC State look a little shaky in their squeaked out win over an FBS squad in James Madison. Week 3 previews the Wolf-pack hosting the Mountaineers of West Virginia. Look for NC State to be looking ahead to their big match-up in week 3 and have a let down performance against Georgia St.

RUTGERS (+35) @ OHIO ST: Rutgers has bad history against the Buckeyes. However, this 2018 Rutgers squad is still bottom tier in the BIG10 but might be able to compete at a much higher rate. I like to think of this Rutgers team as the 2018 Browns. They will probably lose a fair share of their games, but cover a lot more spreads. That’s really all that matters anyways, right?! Not to mention that Ohio St. is currently showing a lot of “Questionable’s” on their depth chart injury report (including 2 starters) for Saturday’s match-up. Also, same could be said about the Buckeyes as the Wolf-pack. Ohio St. squares off against a solid TCU team in week 3, and may be over shadowing The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.

CLEMSON @ TEXAS A&M (+13): ROAD DOGS, ROAD DOGS, ROAD DOGS! The Aggies are catching 13 points at home to a very good Clemson team. However, TAMU is no slouch themselves. This line just seems to high for an SEC team at home to stay away from. I would never argue with anyone for taking a top tier SEC school at home getting points against an opponent outside of the SEC.

IOWA ST @ IOWA (-190): I like the Hawkeyes on the money line in this particular match-up. Given that it is a big rivalry game for these two foes, I believe that it will be a close one. The line is set at IOWA (-4) and I think Iowa will win by a field goal. It is also worth mentioning that Iowa St. had their week 1 game rained out against Nebraska. Hence, the Cyclones have yet to get those first game jitters out of the way and have yet to work out their week 1 “kinks” (if you will). Iowa is the better football team in this case, and it will show Saturday afternoon.

UTAH @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+10.5): Utah is set to have their biggest game of the season in week 3 against the Washington Huskies. They have had that game marked on their schedule all year. I believe the PAC12 to be a very weak conference this season and I think that it will show in this match-up. Road dogs all day!

Take all of these week 2 picks with a grain of salt and don’t forget to make your week 1 NFL plays for this Sunday. Be wary of what you saw in the preseason from some teams as the preseason does not even come close to telling the full story. Good luck this weekend bettors!

Saying hello to NCAAF, and goodbye to preseason NFL

college football top 25 blog

The wait is finally over! College football has graced us with its presence, while big brother NFL is right around the corner. Last post from the 20th of August, I provided you guys with the preseason NFL power rankings. As for the college kids, here is how the experts foresee who the tops 25 teams in the country are and where they stack up.

NCAAF Preseason Rankings

Much like the NFL, NCAAF is just as difficult (if not more) to intellectually gather which lines are in one’s favor to make a play on. College athletes are much less consistent than those of the professional level(s). Obviously I do not need to get into the Why’s of that statement. It is just the way it is, and the way that it always will be. It should come to no shock to you that I may advise on holding off hitting the “books” (sports books) too hard during Week 1 of the NCAAF season. Compared to the NFL, many of the players that get traded and picked up off waivers have established themselves with a well-known identity, i.e. more consistent. Whereas, in college ball, a team could have a freshman stand out that comes out of nowhere. Or, on the flip side, a highly touted senior shits-the-bed in his finally season. Point being, if Week 1 of the NFL handicapping lines are a flip of a coin, then Week 1 of the NCAAF season is a flip of a coin where the coin lands on its edge. By no means am I saying to not make ANY plays during Week 1, just be very cautious with your money and have a well developed intellect for your gambles.

Now that my theory/disclaimer is out of the way, lets take a look at what some experts are saying about what they believe to be the identity of some of the storied programs in college football.

ALABAMA: Most elite, but way overpriced – considering their current state of QB question marks.

OLE MISS: Undervalued, will pull off some upsets this season – especially with their vicious passing attach led by QB Jordan Ta’amu.

OHIO ST: Can step-in coach Ryan Day be successful? – how will the Urban Meyer suspension influence the Buckeyes performance?

WISCONSIN: Plan of double digit wins for the Badgers – considering they are in the weaker BIG10 division.

CLEMSON:  All in – bet on another playoff birth for the Tigers.

OKLAHOMA: Sooners will not miss a beat with Kyler Murray – besides, there has to be a reason he wanted to return for his Senior season.

MIAMA: Overrated – still have big question marks at the QB position.

GEORGIA: Dawgs will finally trump the Crimson Tide and win SEC – BOLD!

(Courtesy of C. Wilson of ActionNetwork.com)

I would like to leave you with a final thought… Since the NFL is in fact the largest sport across the world that is gambled on, don’t be deterred if you see the line shift in the opposite direction that your leaning towards. Often the line changes based on the large amounts of plays that are placed by “squares” rather than “sharps”. This is typically the only sports that displays line movement occurrences that are not driven by “sharps” alone. Go with your gut, crunch the numbers, and win big!

Today’s picks:



Syracuse is without their starting defensive lineman and on the road. Take the team getting points against a very unproven Syracuse team.



Starting pitcher for the Royals (Brad Keller) has been their “ace” for the latter portion of their season. These two face off as two of the worst teams in baseball, at the moment. Take the organization at home with their ace on the mound at a good price!

NFL Teams Are Able To Toe the Turf

Seattle Seahawks NFL Football Rookie Minicamp

Teams around the NFL took to the turf for the first time as of late May. Interesting enough, around this time the Week 1 NFL betting lines were posted (as far as I had access to). If you are a NFL junky, like myself, you begin to get that “itch” right around this time to root on your favorite team for yet another season.

If you wish to start making your NFL plays for Week 1 in the near future, I would recommend taking a gooooood look at the DOGS! Why? Well for starters, who knows how teams are going to show out for the 2018-19 NFL season. You can listen to all the sports analyst that you desire, but one thing is for certain: No one truly knows how any given franchise is going to perform this upcoming season. With that being said, it may be a bit more difficult (in terms of covering) to gamble on games half way through the season. By this point, teams are beginning to establish their identities, the playoff picture is coming together, and we just know a lot more about the teams, in general, as the season progresses. Hence, maybe the lines are not as sharp for the start of Week 1; since not even the experts know how a team is going to perform right off the get-go. Even if that team had a hell of an off season as far as acquisitions and draft grades are concerned. You just never know. Think of the underdogs in Week 1 as having “free” points in the betting world. Sure, in later weeks the point spread is fairly more accurate and resembles more of a flip of a coin for sports gamblers. However, the Week 1 lines are skewed based on off-season and previous season perceptions; and we know how much that garbage actually means.

For example, no one could have foreseen how successful of a season that the Jacksonville Jaguars could have had in 2017. They even managed to make a trip to the AFC Championship. The Jaguars began the season on the road against the Houston Texans. The Texans were listed as a 5.5 point favorite against the Jags. Final score of the contest? Jaguars 29, Texans 7. How silly does this point spread seem looking back on it now?! It is never a bad idea to take the team getting a few points in Week 1 of the NFL season. Especially if they are HOME-DOGS!

Now for a few tips on the diamond… I will make this tip short and sweet. Mainly due to the fact that I have no evidence to support this theory, it is only a hunch. Any who, have you ever noticed that after an MLB team goes off the night before by hanging double digits on another squad, the very next day they come out flat by only putting up a run? If you haven’t, pay closer attention! In all seriousness, this ideology may works both ways. You see, if a team gets shut out on May 11th and comes out on May 12th, expect them to be swinging hot bats on that particular day. My biggest piece of evidence to support this theory only rests on the law of averages. If team A averages 4.8 runs a game and gets shut out, according to their average how many runs should they score next game? 8 to 9. Now, if team B has an earned run average (ERA) of 4.61 and throw a shutout the previous game, how many runs should they give up their next game? 9 to 10. Get it? Got it? Good!

***I would like to apologize for my recent absence. We will blame it on “good things take time.” As always, good luck on the rest of the MLB season and begin studying up on this upcoming NFL season!