It’s only preseason, but we’re still excited!

preseason nfl blog

Tonight kicks off the 2019 Preseason of the NFL. Eleven games are featured tonight whereas a lot of eyes will be on the NFL’s number 1 overall pick in Kyler Murray. Many first year quarterbacks, including Murray, will have their first taste of the NFL spotlight. With this being said, look to see how comfortable each quarterback looks in the pocket, their accuracy, leadership abilities, arm strength, and so on. For NFL veterans, preseason football is more-or-less a fast paced practice. However, for NFL rookies, this is their opportunity to display their talents leaving the viewer with a much better idea of their true ability. Why is this important? Maybe a rookie stood out to you as you were watching one preseason match-up. This athlete might end up being a solid 8th round “sleeper” pick for your fantasy football squad. kyler murray blog

For those who do not pay too much attention after the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds of your draft have concluded; below are the top picks by position.

QB: PATRICK MAHOMES

RUNNING BACK: SAQUON BARKLEY

WIDE RECEIVER: DEANDRE HOPKINS

KICKER: GREG ZUERLEIN

DEFENSE: BEARS

Here is a list of your potential Fantasy Football Draft picks FF DRAFT CHEAT SHEET

Once the preseason concludes and we can begin to gamble on “real” games, there are a few historical trends to keep in mind while making your Week 1 NFL plays (only Week 1). The first scenario relates only to teams that of which won 7 or more games during the 2018 NFL season. 7+ win teams from the previous season are only 40% ATS in the first week of action as road dogs. The second scenario involves teams that won 6 or fewer games in their previous season. In Week 1 of the NFL season, teams whom acquired 6 or fewer wins are 60% ATS the spread as road underdogs. What does this tell us? It clearly shows that odds makers and trendy line movements over evaluate a franchise based on their previous seasons’ performance.

Current Super Bowl LIV Winner Odds:

PATRIOTS +600

CHIEFS +600

SAINTS +900

RAMS +1200

BROWNS +1200

EAGLES +1300

CHARGERS +1500

 

Super Bowl 53 strategy

blog superbowl 53

Anticipation for each Super Bowl builds up immediately following the conclusion of the Conference Championships. The narrative for Super Bowl LIII is no different. What is so intriguing about this particular match-up is that it features the highly decorated veteran QB (Tom Brady) versus the young-gun, unproven QB in Jared Goff. To take this match-up a step further, Bill Belichick (NE Head Coach) is 66 years old, whereas Sean McVay (LA Head Coach) is only 33. Literally half his age, McVay will have to go toe-to-toe with one of the greatest coaches that the National Football League has ever seen.

When making plays this Sunday, there are a few factors to keep in mind. Although I am not a huge fan of looking too deep in the past for my sports gambling insight; however, the 53 all time Super Bowl trends could in fact provide useful knowledge that may correlate to Super Bowl 53. For instance…

Obviously there have been 53 Super Bowl’s played with the modern NFL era. Of those 53 games, the underdog has covered 24 for of them with 2 pushes. That leaves the favorites covering 27 of those 53 match-ups. The favorite covers 53% of the time. Not that significant right? At least not significant enough to make a “blind” play on the game. However, in the last 11 Super Bowl’s, the underdog has covered 9 out of those 11 games. This comes out to an 82% covering clip. Now this statistic may hold some significance. By no means am I saying to not fancy the Patriots. With this being said, have some solid statistical reasoning to back the favorite in the Patriots if you do so. If the last 11 years have taught us anything, it is that the underdogs prevail in the end.

Now for some OVRE/UNDER advice. In the 53 years of the Super Bowl, only one match-up did not offer an OVER/UNDER (Super Bowl I). Since then, 27 of the 52 have ended with the OVER (52%). Again, not that significant; right? Looking once more at the past 11 years, you will see that 7 of those 11 contests ended in the OVER (63%). Again, this is another statistic that can provide us with some serious edge against the bookies.

For now, the current lines that are available for Super Bowl LIII are as follow:

PATRIOTS (-2.5 / -155) | RAMS (+2.5 / +125)

OVER/UNDER (58)

As always, best of luck and happy Super Bowl weekend!

Wildcard winners love hittin’ the road

Image result for nfl playoffs

3 of the 4 wildcard winners from the opening week of the NFL playoffs came from – wait for it… on the road and underdogs. It is also important to note that 3 of those first 4 games hit the UNDER total. Digging a bit deeper, you will notice that the only favorite to win last week (Cowboys) game hit the OVER total. With this being said, history has a funny way of repeating itself. Hence, if you like a favorite in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs than don’t be to hesitant to go with the OVER as well. Same could be said on the flip side, if you are like me and love picking dogs, then make a play on the UNDER for that/those particular match-ups.

Looking ahead at the particular match-ups…

AFC Playoff picture: Colts @ Chiefs (-5) & Chargers @ Patriots (-4)

NFC Playoff picture: Cowboys @ Rams (-6.5) & Eagles @ Saints (-7.5)

No surprise here whereas all 4 home teams are the favorite. However, which home team is most suspect to fall short this Saturday and Sunday? That is for you to interpret, but keep in mind the historical notes listed above. It may also be worth mentioning that each of the 4 lines have shifted in favor of all of the road dogs. For example: the Eagles @ Saints line opened at 9.5 and is now down to 7.5. Keeping mental notes like this can show you where the general public stands on these divisional match-ups.

Here are some NFL playoff angles that cover almost 65% of the time. (John D. Rothschild)

1. Road teams that win outright in first week have trouble covering in second road game. Key work here is road team.

2. Rematches of non divisional opponents during regular season. Loser in first match-up typically covers. (i.e. Eagles @ Saints in Week 11. Saints won 48-7. The play is on the Eagles despite the large deficit in Week 11.

Good luck this weekend and Go Chiefs!!!

Tips & Picks…

betting strategies blog

Hello all,

This post will include a hand-full of sports gambling tips, along with some possible plays to consider for this NCAAF and NFL weekend action. It is important to note that the following sports gambling strategies should be taken with a grain of salt. With that being said, it takes hard work, attention to detail, and doing your “homework” to become a more successful sports handicapper.

TIPS:

  • Use statistics, not trends. This goes hand-in-hand with doing your “homework.” Anyone can tell if a team is good or bad with the eye test. Putting in more effort other than noticing the obvious will pay dividends.
  • Teams who receive an ass-whoopin’ in last weeks competition can pose significant value as the odds makers could potentially be under valuing that particular team.
  • Don’t pay too much attention to the media’s opinions.
  • Always, ALWAYS! take weather into consideration. Unless of course the game is scheduled to be played in a dome.
  • Try to not value player injuries to much once they are ruled as OUT. Typically, these circumstances are already built into the game lines. (I am suspect of this far to often).

PICKS:

  • FRESNO ST. @ BOISE ST (+2.5) – PICK = BOISE ST.
  • MARYLAND (+3) @ INDIANA – PICK = MARYLAND
  • AKRON (+12.5) @ E. MICHIGAN – PICK = AKRON
  • TROY @ GEORGIA SOUTHERN (pk) – PICK = GEORGIA SOUTHERN
  • CHARLOTTE (+14.5) @ MARSHALL – PICK = CHARLOTTE
  • UCLA @ ARIZONA ST. (-12.5) – PICK = ARIZONA ST.
  • APPALACHIAN ST. @ TEXAS ST. (+21.5) – PICK = TEXAS ST.
  • TEMPLE @ HOUSTON (-4) – PICK = HOUSTON
  • KANSAS @ KANSAS ST. (O/U 45.5) – PICK = OVER
  • SAINTS @ BENGALS (+5) – PICK = BENGALS
  • FLACONS @ BROWNS (+4.5) – PICK = BROWNS

Good luck this weekend to all and happy NCAAB season!

Picks, picks, and more picks!

ncaaf espn logo blog

Football of all sorts is officially under way! After last night’s Falcons and Eagles match-up got the 2018 NFL regular season underway. What we learned from Thursday night is that we still don’t know what is and is not a “catch.” We also learned that the Falcons are finally going to have to lean on their defense to produce wins. Lastly, the Eagles will once again be another threat in the juggernaut that the NFC is projected to be this season. Their ceiling is very high considering that Carson Wentz will be returning to the gridiron very soon.

I have made a lot of NCAAF plays for Week 2 of the season. I was a bit gun-shy last week with all of the unpredictability that comes with week 1 match-ups. With that being said, we now have a lot better idea of the makeup of each squad going into week 2.

DUKE @ NORTHWESTERN (-3): The Wildcats of NW looked sharp in their win on the road against a solid Purdue team. Look for the NW run game to be too much for the Blue Devils to handle. Although this game will be close, I foresee NW to win by a touchdown.

GEORGIA ST (+24.5) @ NC ST: Last week we saw NC State look a little shaky in their squeaked out win over an FBS squad in James Madison. Week 3 previews the Wolf-pack hosting the Mountaineers of West Virginia. Look for NC State to be looking ahead to their big match-up in week 3 and have a let down performance against Georgia St.

RUTGERS (+35) @ OHIO ST: Rutgers has bad history against the Buckeyes. However, this 2018 Rutgers squad is still bottom tier in the BIG10 but might be able to compete at a much higher rate. I like to think of this Rutgers team as the 2018 Browns. They will probably lose a fair share of their games, but cover a lot more spreads. That’s really all that matters anyways, right?! Not to mention that Ohio St. is currently showing a lot of “Questionable’s” on their depth chart injury report (including 2 starters) for Saturday’s match-up. Also, same could be said about the Buckeyes as the Wolf-pack. Ohio St. squares off against a solid TCU team in week 3, and may be over shadowing The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.

CLEMSON @ TEXAS A&M (+13): ROAD DOGS, ROAD DOGS, ROAD DOGS! The Aggies are catching 13 points at home to a very good Clemson team. However, TAMU is no slouch themselves. This line just seems to high for an SEC team at home to stay away from. I would never argue with anyone for taking a top tier SEC school at home getting points against an opponent outside of the SEC.

IOWA ST @ IOWA (-190): I like the Hawkeyes on the money line in this particular match-up. Given that it is a big rivalry game for these two foes, I believe that it will be a close one. The line is set at IOWA (-4) and I think Iowa will win by a field goal. It is also worth mentioning that Iowa St. had their week 1 game rained out against Nebraska. Hence, the Cyclones have yet to get those first game jitters out of the way and have yet to work out their week 1 “kinks” (if you will). Iowa is the better football team in this case, and it will show Saturday afternoon.

UTAH @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+10.5): Utah is set to have their biggest game of the season in week 3 against the Washington Huskies. They have had that game marked on their schedule all year. I believe the PAC12 to be a very weak conference this season and I think that it will show in this match-up. Road dogs all day!

Take all of these week 2 picks with a grain of salt and don’t forget to make your week 1 NFL plays for this Sunday. Be wary of what you saw in the preseason from some teams as the preseason does not even come close to telling the full story. Good luck this weekend bettors!

Saying hello to NCAAF, and goodbye to preseason NFL

college football top 25 blog

The wait is finally over! College football has graced us with its presence, while big brother NFL is right around the corner. Last post from the 20th of August, I provided you guys with the preseason NFL power rankings. As for the college kids, here is how the experts foresee who the tops 25 teams in the country are and where they stack up.

NCAAF Preseason Rankings

Much like the NFL, NCAAF is just as difficult (if not more) to intellectually gather which lines are in one’s favor to make a play on. College athletes are much less consistent than those of the professional level(s). Obviously I do not need to get into the Why’s of that statement. It is just the way it is, and the way that it always will be. It should come to no shock to you that I may advise on holding off hitting the “books” (sports books) too hard during Week 1 of the NCAAF season. Compared to the NFL, many of the players that get traded and picked up off waivers have established themselves with a well-known identity, i.e. more consistent. Whereas, in college ball, a team could have a freshman stand out that comes out of nowhere. Or, on the flip side, a highly touted senior shits-the-bed in his finally season. Point being, if Week 1 of the NFL handicapping lines are a flip of a coin, then Week 1 of the NCAAF season is a flip of a coin where the coin lands on its edge. By no means am I saying to not make ANY plays during Week 1, just be very cautious with your money and have a well developed intellect for your gambles.

Now that my theory/disclaimer is out of the way, lets take a look at what some experts are saying about what they believe to be the identity of some of the storied programs in college football.

ALABAMA: Most elite, but way overpriced – considering their current state of QB question marks.

OLE MISS: Undervalued, will pull off some upsets this season – especially with their vicious passing attach led by QB Jordan Ta’amu.

OHIO ST: Can step-in coach Ryan Day be successful? – how will the Urban Meyer suspension influence the Buckeyes performance?

WISCONSIN: Plan of double digit wins for the Badgers – considering they are in the weaker BIG10 division.

CLEMSON:  All in – bet on another playoff birth for the Tigers.

OKLAHOMA: Sooners will not miss a beat with Kyler Murray – besides, there has to be a reason he wanted to return for his Senior season.

MIAMA: Overrated – still have big question marks at the QB position.

GEORGIA: Dawgs will finally trump the Crimson Tide and win SEC – BOLD!

(Courtesy of C. Wilson of ActionNetwork.com)

I would like to leave you with a final thought… Since the NFL is in fact the largest sport across the world that is gambled on, don’t be deterred if you see the line shift in the opposite direction that your leaning towards. Often the line changes based on the large amounts of plays that are placed by “squares” rather than “sharps”. This is typically the only sports that displays line movement occurrences that are not driven by “sharps” alone. Go with your gut, crunch the numbers, and win big!

Today’s picks:

NCAAF

CUSE @ WEST MICHIGAN (+5)

Syracuse is without their starting defensive lineman and on the road. Take the team getting points against a very unproven Syracuse team.

MLB

ORIOLE @ ROYALS (-130)

Starting pitcher for the Royals (Brad Keller) has been their “ace” for the latter portion of their season. These two face off as two of the worst teams in baseball, at the moment. Take the organization at home with their ace on the mound at a good price!

NFL Teams Are Able To Toe the Turf

Seattle Seahawks NFL Football Rookie Minicamp

Teams around the NFL took to the turf for the first time as of late May. Interesting enough, around this time the Week 1 NFL betting lines were posted (as far as I had access to). If you are a NFL junky, like myself, you begin to get that “itch” right around this time to root on your favorite team for yet another season.

If you wish to start making your NFL plays for Week 1 in the near future, I would recommend taking a gooooood look at the DOGS! Why? Well for starters, who knows how teams are going to show out for the 2018-19 NFL season. You can listen to all the sports analyst that you desire, but one thing is for certain: No one truly knows how any given franchise is going to perform this upcoming season. With that being said, it may be a bit more difficult (in terms of covering) to gamble on games half way through the season. By this point, teams are beginning to establish their identities, the playoff picture is coming together, and we just know a lot more about the teams, in general, as the season progresses. Hence, maybe the lines are not as sharp for the start of Week 1; since not even the experts know how a team is going to perform right off the get-go. Even if that team had a hell of an off season as far as acquisitions and draft grades are concerned. You just never know. Think of the underdogs in Week 1 as having “free” points in the betting world. Sure, in later weeks the point spread is fairly more accurate and resembles more of a flip of a coin for sports gamblers. However, the Week 1 lines are skewed based on off-season and previous season perceptions; and we know how much that garbage actually means.

For example, no one could have foreseen how successful of a season that the Jacksonville Jaguars could have had in 2017. They even managed to make a trip to the AFC Championship. The Jaguars began the season on the road against the Houston Texans. The Texans were listed as a 5.5 point favorite against the Jags. Final score of the contest? Jaguars 29, Texans 7. How silly does this point spread seem looking back on it now?! It is never a bad idea to take the team getting a few points in Week 1 of the NFL season. Especially if they are HOME-DOGS!


Now for a few tips on the diamond… I will make this tip short and sweet. Mainly due to the fact that I have no evidence to support this theory, it is only a hunch. Any who, have you ever noticed that after an MLB team goes off the night before by hanging double digits on another squad, the very next day they come out flat by only putting up a run? If you haven’t, pay closer attention! In all seriousness, this ideology may works both ways. You see, if a team gets shut out on May 11th and comes out on May 12th, expect them to be swinging hot bats on that particular day. My biggest piece of evidence to support this theory only rests on the law of averages. If team A averages 4.8 runs a game and gets shut out, according to their average how many runs should they score next game? 8 to 9. Now, if team B has an earned run average (ERA) of 4.61 and throw a shutout the previous game, how many runs should they give up their next game? 9 to 10. Get it? Got it? Good!

***I would like to apologize for my recent absence. We will blame it on “good things take time.” As always, good luck on the rest of the MLB season and begin studying up on this upcoming NFL season!

2018 NFL Mock Draft & some…

Hi all, sorry for my recent absence. Nevertheless, that is all in the past. Let’s begin to focus on the future and how much we have to look forward to! For starters, March Madness’s Selection Sunday Show airs this Sunday, and the 2018 NFL Draft will begin on April 26th. With that being said, many (including myself) think that the Browns should be able to muster out at least a few wins this upcoming season with the 1st and 4th overall picks, along with such a large room for cap space. So who should the Browns take? Many, including CBS Sports, believe that Saquon Barkley (RB Penn St.) will be the Browns first pick in the draft. However, is this in their best interest? Many of us are aware that the average lifespan of an NFL RB ranges from 2.5-3.5 years. I believe that the Browns should pounce all over the QB from Wyoming, Josh Allen. In my opinion, he is a better version of Derik Carr (who also competed in the Mountain West Conference). The tricky thing about the draft is that you just never know who is going to pan out or not… same goes with every other professional sports draft. Who would you pick if you were the Browns?!

Well, whoever the Browns decide to go with will probably not help them out too much in the 2018-19 NFL season. Nevertheless, it very much might aid them in winning a game here and there and covering more lines! This is a perfect segway into my betting tips for Week 1 of the NFL season. Let me go ahead and just lay the facts out there, thanks to Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com. Recent history shows us that teams that won >7 games the previous season have the following percentages of covering the point spread in Week 1 competition (only) if: HOME FAVORITES (49%), HOME DOGS (52%), ROAD FAVORITES (47%), ROAD DOGS (40%). In this case, avoid making your plays on 7+ win teams when they are road dogs; but lean towards picking them when they are home dogs. Now, how do the numbers shape up if the team had <7 wins the previous season? HOME FAVORITES (55%), HOME DOGS (54%), ROAD FAVORITES (47%), ROAD UNDERDOGS (60%). As you can clearly see, the odds makers tend to undervalue the unsuccessful teams form last season.

NOTICE: Last season was and is last season. It is a brand new year! Don’t be shy to take those “shitty” 2017 teams if they are road dogs in week 1. They are looking to come out and make a statement for the next season.

College Playoff Predictions

blog bamauga

The College Football Playoff has prompted a new era to NCAAF. Arguably, for better orfor worse; one thing is for certain: the playoff allows for more teams to take home the true crown. Think about it, would the NFL playoffs be as entertaining and/or dramatic is the best AFC team and best NFC (in the regular season) met for one last and final game? No. Adding a few extra games provides multiple positive factors. First, it increases revenue for the super giant that college football is. Second, it allows for fans to tune in for more games (i.e. more entertainment.) Third, it creates opportunity for sponsorship and television programs to enhance their market(s).

Before I get into the 2018 Championship match-up between the Bulldogs of Georgia and the Tide of Alabama, I would like to share with you all something very interesting that I discovered over recent weeks. First, a pop quiz (if you will) – take a look at these two images and ponder: “What is wrong (or awesome!) about these two offered lines…

Now that you have looked over these two images, what is wrong with them? You will notice that in both of the provided images both of the underdogs are each getting a 1/2 point to cover the spread offered at -110 for both. As we know, you cannot win or lose a game (or half) by a half point. You would either win, loses, or tie (tie if it is a halftime line.) To the right of each line, you will see the underdogs’ money line. One of the money lines offered is EV (even), while the other is at +100 (also EV). There is a loop hole in each of these lines, what is it?! Since a team cannot win or lose by a 1/2 point, you are better off taking the money line straight up . This way you do not have to fall victim to the “juice” or “vig” that the house makes off you. Now, instead of gambling $110 to win $100, you only have to wager $100 to win $100, and so on! You’re welcome.

As you tune in tomorrow at 7pm CST to watch the College Football Playoff Championship, keep these things in mind. You will notice that game lines offered (from books that I have seen) opened the lines at Alabama (-4.5). As of right now, I see the line shifting in Georgia’s favor now at Alabama (-3.5). A lot of the money is being generated towards the Dawgs. Given the attention each and every year that this game provides makes for a line that will have little to no loop holes. Hence, this line will always be very sharp. If you decide to go with the Tide this Monday, do so at your own risk!

Injury Report:

Alabama starters listed as OUT (OL, LB, LB)

Georgia starters listed as OUT (none)

Prediction: 24 – 20 GEORGIA

***Stay tuned for more NCAAB news and tips! As always, best of luck.

Let’s go bowling!

NCAAF bowls blog

That’s a wrap. It is that time of the year where we find out who amongst the 6+ win teams will be bowling this college football postseason. The 16th of December marks the start of “bowl season” with ten teams, five games, on display. If you are like me, then you love filling out your bowl pick em’ sheets each and every year. However, I like to partake in the point spread pick em’ pools. In my opinion, the point spread factor facilitates the more skillful sports nuts (sharps).

The information that I will share with you will assist you in your bowl pick em’ pool, regardless of the pools’ format. Before I share, I would like to point out that “bowl season” is slightly different than the regular season. You must keep in mind, and this is a big one, that some teams do not want to be playing in the bowl that they have been selected to play in. Hence, this team in particular may not show up that game (figuratively speaking). Now for the meat a potatoes of this discussion!

So, what is the first thing we are looking for when deciding which team to choose? What makes this team a better pick than the other team? As I stated above, you must use common intuition to distinguish a teams’ motivation level. For example, do you really think that the Ohio State Buckeyes want to play in the Cotton Bowl after being left out of the College Football Playoff? Look for the USC Trojans (+7.5) to put up the better fight in this match-up on December 29th.

This next tidbit, I must give all of the credit to FishyFive’s Pat Hagerty. Hagerty believes that picking teams that are aware of their coaches dismissal at the conclusion of the season are big no-no’s when it comes to your bowl winners. Here is a list of bowl teams that have lost their head coaches, or will lose their head coaches following the conclusion of their bowl game. Arizona State, Central Florida, Mississippi State, Oregon, Southern Methodist, and Texas A&M. If you wish to pick these particular programs in your pool, then pick at your own risk. You’ve been warned! For the full list of coaching changes in college football this season, CLICK HERE.

Next, it is never a bad idea to keep the age old saying in the back of your head, “defense wins championships.” Last year, 59% of the bowl games resulted in the UNDER. Those are odds that will beat the vig/juice (52.4% win rate to break even, typically at a -110) more times than not! “ Scoring points is cool, winning is cooler.” – Pat Hagerty.

Here are some bowl statistics of the win percentages for the power five conferences since 1990, you’re welcome!

SEC: 55%

ACC: 54%

PAC 12: 53%

BIG 10: 47%

BIG 12: 41%

For the record, on the first day of bowl mania, I like the Broncos of Boise State as 7.5 underdogs against the Ducks of Oregon.

Here is a full list of the 2017 College Football Bowl match-ups

Good luck this bowl season betters!