WNBA showed us “the way,” NFL it’s your turn…

2020 nfl draft blog

On April 17th, history was made after the WNBA hosted the first ever live, virtual draft. Oddly enough, I had to tune in to view the draft. Maybe I was curious to see how the whole “virtual” thing would go, or perhaps I am craving some fashion of a live sporting event; regardless of the sport. With that being said, the draft as a whole was rather awkward, in my opinion. Imagining this should not be too big of challenge as the WNBA commissioner was literally announcing pick after pick from her living room. In the league’s defense, what are they supposed to do. At this point in World History, our hands are tightly bound limiting our access to our resources. Nevertheless, the NFL draft is only days away! (April 23rd). I am anticipating what Roger Goodell and the rest of the league rolls out there and what they have ultimately learned from the pros and cons that the WNBA draft possessed.

Mel Kiper’s latest 4.0 mock draft has been released with Joe Burrow remaining as the first overall pick to the Bengal’s. Click for a clear list of his 2020 mock draft… Mel Kiper’s NFL Mock Draft 4.0

Obviously we are not all experts at breaking down each and every pick and its overall grade. So how you we semi-accurately analyze a teams’ draft grade through the average Joe’s eyes? Aaron Lesher of Hog Haven points out that many of the top performers in the NFL are not 1st round picks. For instance, in 2017 the top rushing leaders in the NFL, top to bottom, averaged at the 100th overall pick. That pick falls within the 4th round! Not sufficient enough? How about the top DB’s from that year averaged out at the 156th overall pick! That pick lies within the 5th round. As for the pass rushers of the league, the best sack artists from 2017 averaged in the 56th round, 2nd round guys. Are you noticing the trend here? The vast majority of these athletes are not 1st round picks. Hence, come this Thursday and this weekend, look to see which teams are grabbing those late round treasures. I believe that a lot of gamblers put too much stock in a teams’ first and second round picks because they are the “sexy” and well-known college super-stars. However, if you can do your research and hone in on an organization’s late round picks along with their undrafted signee’s than you will have a much better idea of what kind of season they are in store for. Obviously there are a lot more factors that go into a teams’ win-loss record at the end of a season other than the draft. Nevertheless, knowing how to further analyze the draft in greater detail than the guy next to you can assist you when making plays on the preseason team win/loss totals, ect.

*Possessing the final draft spot never felt so good, GO CHIEFS!

XFL: Xtra Funds League

xfl teams blog

Week 1 of the newly reemerged XFL is in the books. Go figure, Week 1 provided us with the OVER/UNDER hitting the 50/50 split and the favorites covered 50% of the games; meaning that the dogs also covered 50% of the match-ups. So what did we learn from Week 1 of the XFL? We learned two things: First, we learned that the bookies are even sharp when a brand new league starts up. Second, we learned that no trends came from the Week 1 results.

As you all know, I love myself some dogs; especially in this case. Here we have a league that we know very little about and have obtained a very small sample size in terms of stats and trends. Hence, taking the points could (and should) be beneficial in the long run in this league. Here are the current XFL Championship odds…

DC Defenders (+300)

NY Guardians (+400)

HOU Roughnecks (+500)

DAL Renegades(+700)

TB Vipers (+700)

STL Battle-Hawks (+700)

LA Wildcats (+1000)

SEA Dragons (+1400)

Obviously I am not demanding you to pick the Dragons to win the championship because they are the biggest underdog; quite the contrary. Look to make a play here and there on the Seattle Dragon’s because the general public will typically hammer the Dragon’s opponents; potentially allowing Seattle to become an advantageous value bet. We have already learned that the sports-books are very knowledgeable about their provided lines, so what is our next angel to exploit? The general public! If we assume that the general public is wrong more often than not, than we should go against them, correct? Much like yourself, I too know very little about the XFL’s teams, players, rules, and coaches. However, if you can slightly familiarize yourself with these particular factors than it may provide you with a significant edge that the majority may not possess.

Good luck and go dogs! Also, stay up to date with your NCAAB picks and results so that you are prime and ready for your March Madness plays!

Wildcard Weekend Winners…

2019 nfl playpoff bracket blog

As Wildcard Weekend creeps closer and closer, we as fans gear up for yet another NFL Playoff roller coaster! This is peak season for sports gambling action. More plays are transacted than any other time of the year. This should come as no surprise considering that the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the United States. With so much attention and action being placed on each playoff game, it naturally creates very sharp lines. Side note: Super Bowl point spreads are said to be the sharpest lines above all others. It is worth mentioning that sharp lines are more difficult to uncover advantageous handicapping edges. Now you can really laugh at someone when they tell you that X playoff match-up is an absolute “lock.” In my opinion, the only place where these sacred “locks” exists are on NCAAB Saturday slates when Howard is facing off against Bethune-Cookman in a MEAC showdown. Get the idea? With that being said, just because it is more difficult (a lot more difficult) to discover edges in the NFL Playoffs, does not mean that we completely abandon our research and rigorous statistical digging. When looking at your NFL Playoff match-ups, some key factors that many betters neglect, yet are worth keeping in mind may include a teams’ depth at each position, and their regular season strength of schedule. These playoff games are a war of attrition; plain and simple. Hence, each team must be deep up and down their line-ups and must have been battle tested during the regular season with a significant sample size of their possible playoff opponent(s).

HISTORICAL TRENDS BY EACH MATCH-UP (Note: It is very difficult to compile data that offers you a significant edge. Call it, “Every little bit helps.” Or, “Better to be safe than sorry.”)

BILLS @ TEXANS (-2.5)

Record versus playoff teams… Bills (1-4) Texans (3-3)

Strength of schedule (SOS)… Bills (30th) Texans (6th)

My Pick: TEXANS – JJ Watt finally returns, period.

TITANS @ PATRIOTS (-5)

Record versus playoff teams… Titans (2-3) Patriots (3-3)

SOS… Titans (29th) Patriots (32nd – WORST)

My Pick: TITANS – Titans are playing well down the stretch, the Patriots are not. Give me the points.

VIKINGS @ SAINTS (-8)

Record versus playoff teams… Vikings (1-4) Saints (3-1)

SOS… Vikings (20th) Saints (22nd)

My Pick: SAINTS – Cousins sucks on prime-time spotlights and the Saints have a slight motivational edge after the “no-call” pass interference call last year in the NFC Championship game against the Rams.

SEAHAWKS @ EAGLES (+2)

Record versus playoff teams… Seahawks (3-3) Eagles (2-3)

SOS… Seahawks (2nd) Eagles (27th)

My Pick: SEAHAWKS – Eagles are pretty banged-up as a whole. Not to mention, the Eagles played a far easier schedule and managed to squeeze out a very mediocre 9-7 regular season record.

 

 

 

 

 

What if I told you that ‘Bama was not selected to participate in the CFP?!

ncaaf bowl games blog

And then there were four! The 2019 College Football Playoff (CFP) gets underway today and night beginning with LSU (1) taking on Oklahoma (4) followed by Ohio St. (2) verses Clemson (3) tonight.

What angles can we gather that the majority of the public may not be aware of before these games kickoff? Interestingly enough, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF) Clemson has the best chance of hoisting the Dr. Pepper CFP trophy. “Wait, not LSU?! But they have the Heisman Trophy winner and won the SEC.” PFF give Clemson a 42.4% chance of winning the CFP, LSU (39.8%), Ohio St. (17.2%), Oklahoma (0.7%). So why exactly does Clemson have the best odds of winning if they are not the 1st ranked team in the country, nor even the 2nd ranked team? Of the four QB’s, T. Lawrence has not necessarily had the best overall season, but has been performing at a superior level down the stretch. If Clemson faces off against the LSU Tigers in the National Championship, The orange and purple Tigers would have a 56.5% chance of claiming victor over the yellow and purple Bayou Bengals. This favoritism stems from more playoff experience and a better coaching staff in Clemson. In addition, the PFF numbers indicate that although LSU has greater individual athletes; Clemson, however, possesses the greater overall team. ncaaf trophy blog

Notes to keep in mind:

LSU: 9-4 ATS this season.

OKLAHOMA: Lincoln Riley is 3-1 ATS as an underdog.

OHIO ST: The Buckeyes are also 9-4 ATS this season.

CLEMSON: 9-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl game appearances. (76.9% ATS this season – NCAAF best)

A lot of NCAAF Bowl Mania match-up’s require  consideration when looking at each team’s motivation level(s) going into any particular game. However, in the CFP motivation levels should not be a factor when trying to acquire handicapping edges. All parties/teams involved in the CFP should have monumental levels of motivation; hence, cancelling that factor or edge out of the handicapping equation. Where we can find the most significant edge(s) in CFP match-up’s are based on strength of schedule, playoff experience, strengths/weaknesses on offense and defense versus the opponent, and their last few games performances (ie. how is this particular team performing as of late). For whatever it’s worth, I believe that the winner of the Clemson, Ohio St. game will win the CFP.

Best of luck this Bowl season and stay tuned for NFL postseason sports gambling angles.

1-800-DONT-BUY

lock of week blog

Have you ever been on the receiving end of an ad that seems too good to be true? Well, a lot of times this is in fact the case. Same holds true for the so called, “Sports Gambling Prophecies” that we listen to and watch from time-to-time. You may have heard that a sports gambling professional handicapper can win you over 80% of your point-spread plays, or that they have knowledge about a particular game that no one else is aware of. All I can rebuke back to these individuals is, LIES LIES LIES!!! These situations are a classic form of “buyer beware.” In fact, Bleacher Report’s Thomas Moreland quotes, “The service will tell 10 people to bet on Washington [for example] and 10 people to bet Dallas. Then they call the 10 winning individuals back to tell them, “See! I told you so, we have a significant edge on these games all the time and I will keep you winning!” This type of scam concludes in a winner each and every week, but also the same amount of losses that they fail to mention. If a professional handicapper can “honestly” tell you that they gave the correct pick for every game in Week 8 of the NFL season, then they will. By “honesty,” I am recalling the fact they give out both winning sides of the point spread pick to their clients. The only aspect that I would look to the “experts” for when it comes to sports handicapping advice is as a “self-checker.” By “self-checker” I mean, if you are on the fence on a particular play and look to see what the “experts” are saying; then by all means, use them as a point of reference when making your own plays. The only true way to be a successful handicapper is by doing your extensive homework/research sprinkled with a hint of luck.

Before I leave you, I would like to bring to the reader’s attention a philosophy that recently came to my attention. What I find humorous about this next ideology is that I have fallen victim to it all too often. Have you ever said to yourself, ” Oh, this play is my “lock” of the week!” Well, I have… many times. Why do we say this to ourselves when we obviously, or subconsciously know that gambling is a very difficult endeavor to concur? A wise man once told me, “Why do you think your play is a “lock” when another 50% of the general public on that particular game like the other side of your “lock?” This question was quite the head-scratcher for myself. Since this moment, it is an absolute must for me to find out why someone could possibly prefer the other side of the line than I do. By doing so, I simply just Google something like “Why should I bet on the Miami Dolphins versus the Buffalo Bills.” Once we as betters can understand the other side of the line, then we will be able to truly distinguish who is on the more advantageous side of the betting market. Keep your friends close, but enemies closer!!!

One last thought, gamble on those underdogs in your NCAAB plays. We have no clue how good or bad a team is at the start of sports seasons… hence, take those points!!!

Don’t fall victim to “Week-two-itis”

nfl 100 year blog

Week 2 of the NFL season just doesn’t seem to have the “glimmer” to it as Week 1. Fans, coaches, players, media, you name it are all hyped up and ready to go for Week 1. Hence, making Week 2 seem not as important; when it reality, A teams’ Week 2 WIN or LOSS is just as important as their Week 1 WIN or LOSS. This “hangover”effect may also find its way into the hearts and minds of the casual sports gambler. You see, many (including myself at some points) fall victim to Week-two-itis. What is Week-two-itis you ask? Simply put, sports gamblers alike will often take the whole grocery list when it comes to Week 1 NFL results. Whereas is reality, we as fans, spectators, and gamblers of football should take Week 1’s results with a grain of salt and not the whole grocery list, as previously alluded to. Week-two-itis plays tricks in our heads that gives us one small sample size of a teams’ previous performance and making that one performance out to be the end-all-be-all of the rest of their respective season. Getting to the point, stay true to your sports gambling intuition and knowledge that you have possessed over the years. Do not let one week of competition cause you to throw everything that you know out the window. Analyze, study, research, and go with your heart is the process (in Layman’s terms). If you only analyze and skip steps two, three, and four, you are missing out on 75% of laying down a solid play.

NOTABLE WEEK 2 NFL INJURY REPORT:

CHIEFS (-7.5) @ RAIDERS: TYREEK HILL (KC/WR)

49ERS (+1) @ BENGALS: TEVIN COLEMAN (SF/RB)

JAGUARS (+8.5) @ TEXANS: NICK FOLES (QB/JAX)

COWBOYS @ REDSKINS (+6): DERRIUS GUICE (RB/WAS)

COLTS (+3) @ TITANS: DEVIN FUNCHESS (WR/IND)

BROWNS @ JETS (+6.5): SAM DARNOLD (QB/NYJ)

 

WORTHY HISTORICAL NOTES:

The patriots simply just do not play well in Miami, for whatever reason… In fact, the Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Miami. AB TB nfl blog

The ‘Boys and ‘Skins like to score against one another… In fact, 3 of the last 4 games in this series have gone OVER.

On the flip side, the Jaguars and Texans do not like scoring against one another… In fact, 3 of the last 4 games in this series have gone UNDER.

NCAAF preseason Top 25 reaction…

top25 ncaaf blog

August 19th brought us a first glance at the college football preseason Top 25 poll. The first four teams mentioned include: #1 CLEMSON – #2 ALABAMA – #3 GEORGIA – #4 OKLAHOMA. COLLEGE FOOTBALL PRESEASON TOP 25

If you open the link above, you will notice that the ACC has 3 teams listed, the BIG 10 has 7 teams, the BIG 12 has 3 teams, the PAC 12 has 5 teams listed, the SEC has 6 teams listed, and the field has 1 team listed ( #17 UCF). If you are in the same boat as me you will be scratching your head about the BIG 10 gaining 7 of the 25 teams in the preseason Top 25 poll. For instance, of the 14 members of the BIG 10 football conference, 9 competed in last seasons’ bowl games. Of those 9 teams only 4 won their games. Looking ahead at the BIG 10 conference, I believe that the majority of games played within the BIG 10 are going to be very competitive, considering the alleged “potential” that the preseason rankings allude to within this conference. I would lean more towards siding with the dogs in BIG 10 competition this season and take all of the points that you can get. If what they are saying is accurate and half of this conference is among the Top 25 then we should assume that games within this conference are going to be small in margin and competitive. Besides, the BIG 10 is a smash-mouth, lower scoring conference anyways. TAKE THE POINTS BIG 10 FANS! heisman hopefulls blog

Stepping outside the BIG 10, a few sleeper teams that I have read on and caught wind of to keep your eye on this upcoming season may include: Virginia Tech, Minnesota, TCU, Washington State, and Missouri. After watching Virginia Tech the past few seasons, you can just tell that they are on the brink of greatness. Maybe this is the season where they can get over that hump. WEEK 1: @ BOSTON COLLEGE (+3.5). Now, Minnesota is apart of that alleged BIG 10 “powerhouse” that some are foreshadowing. Minnesota reminds me a lot of the Virginia Tech of the BIG 10. Last season, The Golden Gophers finished the season off strong with wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, along with a respectable bowl win over Georgia Tech. WEEK 1: vs. SOUTH DAKOTA ST. (+12.5). Next, the TCU Horned Frogs were a total let down team last season. As the preseason 16th ranked team in the country, TCU went out and finished 7-6 with a loss to Kansas. However, the old adage might be true of a bad performance is usually followed by a good performance in the sports world (vice-versa). Look for the Horned Frogs to have a bounce back season and cover the majority of their games this season. WEEK 1: ARKANSAS PINE-BLUFF (+-N/A). The Washington St. Cougars took the college football universe by storm last season. This squad basically came out of no where, and do not expect them to slow down. Even though their 2018 drafted QB Gardner Minshew is no more, Head Coach Mike Leach finally has this program headed in the right direction. WEEK 1: vs. NEW MEXICO ST. (+32.5). Finally, Mizzou may still be going through their BIG 12 to SEC growing pains, nevertheless, the future is looking bright. 2018 QB standout, Drew Lock, put the Tigers on the college football map. Behind center for Missouri this upcoming season will be Kelly Bryant, former Clemson Tiger sensation – I wonder if he has an obsession with Tigers or something?… I believe that this is the season where Mizzou finally adjusts to the SEC style of play and can compete in the SEC East and look the part in the juggernaut of a conference in the SEC. WEEK 1: vs. WYOMING (+17.5).

NFL WEEK 1 Notes:

Week 1 of 2018 in the NFL concluded with the favorites and underdogs both finished 7 of 14 ATS (with 2 pushes). Hence, no significant value/edge there, right? As for the over/under’s, 9 of the 16 match-ups ended with the UNDER hitting. Maybe some slight edge or value here, but still not enough to get my ears perked up. However, you will notice from Week 1 of the previous season that we may be able to find an edge/value when it comes to parlaying ATS with OVER/UNDER’s. Of the 14 games (again, disclaiming the 2 pushed) 6 of which concluded with the favorite covering the spread and the under coming through. That is pretty impressive concidering that you would have had almost a 50/50 chance of hitting a 2-prop parlay with the favorite/under in Week 1 of last season. Now there is some significant edge/value! If we can make a play that gives us about a 50/50 shot at hitting, when in theory is typically offered at 3/1, then that is some serious value. You’re welcome and good luck – HAPPY FOOTBALL SEASON TO ALL!

I hope that you can take and use this information for some usage towards your upcoming NCAAF plays. The College Football season kicks off this Saturday at 6pm CST headlining the Sunshine State rivals MIAMI @ FLORIDA (-7).

It’s only preseason, but we’re still excited!

preseason nfl blog

Tonight kicks off the 2019 Preseason of the NFL. Eleven games are featured tonight whereas a lot of eyes will be on the NFL’s number 1 overall pick in Kyler Murray. Many first year quarterbacks, including Murray, will have their first taste of the NFL spotlight. With this being said, look to see how comfortable each quarterback looks in the pocket, their accuracy, leadership abilities, arm strength, and so on. For NFL veterans, preseason football is more-or-less a fast paced practice. However, for NFL rookies, this is their opportunity to display their talents leaving the viewer with a much better idea of their true ability. Why is this important? Maybe a rookie stood out to you as you were watching one preseason match-up. This athlete might end up being a solid 8th round “sleeper” pick for your fantasy football squad. kyler murray blog

For those who do not pay too much attention after the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds of your draft have concluded; below are the top picks by position.

QB: PATRICK MAHOMES

RUNNING BACK: SAQUON BARKLEY

WIDE RECEIVER: DEANDRE HOPKINS

KICKER: GREG ZUERLEIN

DEFENSE: BEARS

Here is a list of your potential Fantasy Football Draft picks FF DRAFT CHEAT SHEET

Once the preseason concludes and we can begin to gamble on “real” games, there are a few historical trends to keep in mind while making your Week 1 NFL plays (only Week 1). The first scenario relates only to teams that of which won 7 or more games during the 2018 NFL season. 7+ win teams from the previous season are only 40% ATS in the first week of action as road dogs. The second scenario involves teams that won 6 or fewer games in their previous season. In Week 1 of the NFL season, teams whom acquired 6 or fewer wins are 60% ATS the spread as road underdogs. What does this tell us? It clearly shows that odds makers and trendy line movements over evaluate a franchise based on their previous seasons’ performance.

Current Super Bowl LIV Winner Odds:

PATRIOTS +600

CHIEFS +600

SAINTS +900

RAMS +1200

BROWNS +1200

EAGLES +1300

CHARGERS +1500

 

Super Bowl 53 strategy

blog superbowl 53

Anticipation for each Super Bowl builds up immediately following the conclusion of the Conference Championships. The narrative for Super Bowl LIII is no different. What is so intriguing about this particular match-up is that it features the highly decorated veteran QB (Tom Brady) versus the young-gun, unproven QB in Jared Goff. To take this match-up a step further, Bill Belichick (NE Head Coach) is 66 years old, whereas Sean McVay (LA Head Coach) is only 33. Literally half his age, McVay will have to go toe-to-toe with one of the greatest coaches that the National Football League has ever seen.

When making plays this Sunday, there are a few factors to keep in mind. Although I am not a huge fan of looking too deep in the past for my sports gambling insight; however, the 53 all time Super Bowl trends could in fact provide useful knowledge that may correlate to Super Bowl 53. For instance…

Obviously there have been 53 Super Bowl’s played with the modern NFL era. Of those 53 games, the underdog has covered 24 for of them with 2 pushes. That leaves the favorites covering 27 of those 53 match-ups. The favorite covers 53% of the time. Not that significant right? At least not significant enough to make a “blind” play on the game. However, in the last 11 Super Bowl’s, the underdog has covered 9 out of those 11 games. This comes out to an 82% covering clip. Now this statistic may hold some significance. By no means am I saying to not fancy the Patriots. With this being said, have some solid statistical reasoning to back the favorite in the Patriots if you do so. If the last 11 years have taught us anything, it is that the underdogs prevail in the end.

Now for some OVRE/UNDER advice. In the 53 years of the Super Bowl, only one match-up did not offer an OVER/UNDER (Super Bowl I). Since then, 27 of the 52 have ended with the OVER (52%). Again, not that significant; right? Looking once more at the past 11 years, you will see that 7 of those 11 contests ended in the OVER (63%). Again, this is another statistic that can provide us with some serious edge against the bookies.

For now, the current lines that are available for Super Bowl LIII are as follow:

PATRIOTS (-2.5 / -155) | RAMS (+2.5 / +125)

OVER/UNDER (58)

As always, best of luck and happy Super Bowl weekend!

Wildcard winners love hittin’ the road

Image result for nfl playoffs

3 of the 4 wildcard winners from the opening week of the NFL playoffs came from – wait for it… on the road and underdogs. It is also important to note that 3 of those first 4 games hit the UNDER total. Digging a bit deeper, you will notice that the only favorite to win last week (Cowboys) game hit the OVER total. With this being said, history has a funny way of repeating itself. Hence, if you like a favorite in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs than don’t be to hesitant to go with the OVER as well. Same could be said on the flip side, if you are like me and love picking dogs, then make a play on the UNDER for that/those particular match-ups.

Looking ahead at the particular match-ups…

AFC Playoff picture: Colts @ Chiefs (-5) & Chargers @ Patriots (-4)

NFC Playoff picture: Cowboys @ Rams (-6.5) & Eagles @ Saints (-7.5)

No surprise here whereas all 4 home teams are the favorite. However, which home team is most suspect to fall short this Saturday and Sunday? That is for you to interpret, but keep in mind the historical notes listed above. It may also be worth mentioning that each of the 4 lines have shifted in favor of all of the road dogs. For example: the Eagles @ Saints line opened at 9.5 and is now down to 7.5. Keeping mental notes like this can show you where the general public stands on these divisional match-ups.

Here are some NFL playoff angles that cover almost 65% of the time. (John D. Rothschild)

1. Road teams that win outright in first week have trouble covering in second road game. Key work here is road team.

2. Rematches of non divisional opponents during regular season. Loser in first match-up typically covers. (i.e. Eagles @ Saints in Week 11. Saints won 48-7. The play is on the Eagles despite the large deficit in Week 11.

Good luck this weekend and Go Chiefs!!!