It has been since 1995 since the MLB and its stakeholders have entered a work stoppage otherwise known as a lockout. With many free agents scrambling, and for good reason, to sign new deals with current or new franchises before the work stoppage began; we have seen record setting dollar figures hit the air-waves as this MLB lockout was predicted. Since the conclusion of the World Series, their has been a total of $1.7 billion worth of contracts signed between teams and free agent players. It should come to no surprise that everyone and their mom wanted to have continuous money flowing into their bank accounts before the much anticipated lockout was set in motion.
Two key dates to keep in mind moving forward are a: February 22nd, the date that pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and b: March 31st, Opening Day around the Major League. An agreement needs to be reached between the Player’s Union and the MLB Staff before these dates in order for a full 2022 season to transpire. While we are the subject of baseball, once again the Los Angeles Dodgers are the preseason betting favorites in terms of World Series odds currently listed at +500.
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MLB Opening Day
The college basketball season can seem overwhelming with the amount of games taking place day in and day out. To put it into perspective, there are 353 D1 NCAAB teams that compete in about 33 games a year (give or take). That comes out to a whopping 5,824 games per season; not including the March Madness tournament. Point being, it can become very difficult when it comes time to make your NCAAB plays. Thus far in the 2021-22 NCAAB campaign, there is no evident value that stems from blinding siding with the road, home, favorite, underdog, over, or under plays – bummer, right? However, from a historical perspective we will notice that taking first half UNDERS in games that present relatively high total margins are profitable. Second, it has been detected that conference games are typically closer in margin than the initial point spread might indicate. In short, taking the points in conference competitions is generally never a bad bet.
Saturday NCAAB Picks:
YALE @ AUBURN (T: 70.5) – PICK: 1H UNDER
WAKE FOREST (+10) @ VIRGINIA TECH – PICK: WAKE FOREST
With college football being well underway, I cannot help but to begin to get antsy for the return of college basketball and all of the drama that comes with it! Currently, I am in the middle of much anticipated read for myself written by Gonzaga Head Coach, Mark Few. Few’s novel encompasses the national obsession that has become Bracketology and March Madness. While this book relates to college basketball annual tournament, it mainly details the mastermind behind Bracketeering, Joe Lunardi.
College basketball officially tips off on November 9th with Kansas vs. Michigan St. and Duke vs. Kentucky as two of the marquee match-ups on day one. Since I’ve mention both Joe Lunardi and Kansas, Lunardi’s preseason bracketology projections are published with all 72 invitees. Obviously his weekly brackets are fluid throughout the season as games are played and team’s identites begin to become more and more transparent as the season plays out. Currently, the four #1 seeds are Gonzaga, Kansas, Texas, and UCLA. Does Joe think that the Big12 is going to be that good this season? Also, is he putting too much stock into UCLA’s Cinderella run last year to the Final Four as an #11 seed to now make them a #1 seed? The beauty about it is, “who knows?!” However I can honestly tell you that no one knows better than one Joe Lunardi. Watch it all shake out as the final bracket comes to fruition for the arrival of the 2022 March Madness tournament come March 15th. As the season commences, look to make your early plays on the UNDER when match-ups occur on a neutral court as players are equipped with early season fresh legs, foreign court = different shooting backdrop, and first game jitters are all variables for early season neutral court games to result in the UNDER.
Click HERE to views CBS’s Preseason Top 25 NCAAB Rankings
Shifting gears a bit, the National League portion of the MLB postseason is set in stone. The top overall NL seed are the San Francisco Giants whereas the NL Wildcard match-up will be played in Los Angeles between the Dodgers and Cardinals on October 6th. As of yesterday, the Cardinals 17-game winning
streak came to an end thanks to the Brewers. Now that the Cardinals have clinched an NL Wildcard birth, look for the baseball universe to level itself out providing the Cardinals with some “L’s” on the horizon along with their motivation factor being poor to weak at best as their postseason spot is already locked up. In lieu of these factors, I believe that there could be some significant value in the Cardinals opponents for the remainder of the 2021 MLB regular season.
Being the NFL junky that I am, I need to get in my NFL two cents for the sake of the post. We are amid Week 4 of the NFL 2021-22 campaign. My Chiefs are 1-2 and the world seems to be ending but I will spare you as the reader on those additional thoughts and emotions. My Week 4 NFL picks reside in San Francisco, Denver, and Los Angeles. This week, I love the 49ers (-2.5) over the Seahawks, the Ravens (+1.5) visiting the Broncos, and the Raiders (+3.5) on the road against the Chargers. You’re welcome, and I digress. I was doing some research the other day on the NFL team’s turnover margin based on their playoff appearance. Last season there were 14 playoff spots available, of those 14 spots 11 of them landed in the top 14 of turnover margin. Is it a coincidence that the majority of the playoff spots go to teams that possess a positive turnover margin? Lets check the 2019 turnover margin stats… The 2019-20 playoffs displayed 10 of the top 12 franchises in turnover margin during that season. Point being, teams with is the upper tier of turnover margin tend to earn a spot in the NFL
Playoffs. We can take this edge and/or stat and make it into a microcosm for the regular season and just simply infer that a team with a greater turnover margin will have value in each and every match-up throughout any given season. For example, this upcoming Week 4 exhibits the Browns visiting the Vikings. The Vikings are 2 point dogs at home; however, they are +3 in turnover margin against the Browns. Here we have a road favorite that has a worse turnover margin than the home dog. You already know which way I am leaning! I believe that their is significant value on the Vikings over the Browns in this Week 4 showdown.
The Sweet 16 portion of the NCAAB tournament begins tomorrow at 1:40 PM CST. The Oregon St. Beavers (12) will be taking on the Ramblers of Loyola-Chicago (8). Wow, an 12 vs. 8 match-up in the Sweet 16?! That cannot be to common in March Madness history. If the parody of past year’s was not “maddening” enough for one such fan, than this year should be providing plenty. In fact, up to this point, the average remaining seed in the tournament is a 6 seed. Hypothetically, the level of competition remaining is equivalent to our USC’s, BYU’s, Texas Tech’s, and San Diego St.’s of the world. Interestingly enough, of these four 6 seeds, only USC is left standing. This Sweet 16 has produced a 15, 12, and two 11 seeds, for better or worse…
If you’re like myself, than your bracket is busted beyond belief. That doesn’t mean that my plays haven’t been covering! (Wink, wink). There is still a lot of tournament left for us to increase our bankroll heading into the start of the 2021 MLB season. By this point in the tournament, the little number next to each team might as well not enough be visible (team seed). Do not let this little number alter or manipulate your thought process in relation to your knowledge and
intuition of recognizing value on your plays. The most important statistical component to review before handicapping the Sweet 16 is a team’s Created Possession Margin. This statistic can be found by taking a team’s rebound margin and adding it to their turnover margin. Be wary of siding with teams that fall within the negative side of this statistical category. The round of 64 and round of 32 provide some of the most exciting moments in all of the tournament. Teams that no one has ever heard of take down the big school and games are being played all throughout the day. However, once the Sweet 16 begins, upsets are not quite as prevalent. This is not to say that underdogs don’t cover the point spread as much; no, not at all! Simply proceed with caution when taking those underdogs on the money-line. A spot that I love to angle and search for a significant edge comes when a Power-5 Conference program is a “lower” seeded team and is still standing by this point. What do I mean by this? Typically, if one of these teams remains, than it means one of two things (or both): one, they were undervalued throughout the season and/or two: they are peaking at the right time as far as their performance is concerned. So what are some of these teams that are still alive in the tournament? USC, Oregon, Oregon St, UCLA, and Syracuse would qualify as potential undervalued Power-5 schools. Look for a few of these teams to really rely on their strength of schedule and experience to will them to covering their respective point-spreads.
Best of luck during this 2021 Sweet 16 and don’t let the seed scramble your brain! My best play for the Sweet 16 is Florida St. (+3) vs. Michigan: PICK – FLORIDA ST. Since I briefly touched on the MLB season, here is a 2021 MLB Mock Draft to get you geared up for the upcoming season that is right around the corner!
When I launched this blog, in 2017, only one state in the entire country legally offered sports gambling. Nevada first allowed sports gambling in 1931! It has now taken 77 years for the next state to follow suite (New Jersey). By this point, we are seeing more and more states legalize the ever growing phenomena known as sport betting. As of now in the year 2021, we see 20 of the 50 states offer some form of sports gambling. The picture above details each state and their current status regarding sports gambling from a legalization point of view. Nevada’s younger brother, New Jersey, has $2.9 billion in sports wagers placed in any given year. Nearly doubling this number, you will find the amount of money up for grabs in the sports gambling realm in the state of Nevada each year ($5.2 billion). Point being, more and more states are noticing these large dollar signs that these states are beginning to profit from gamblers “losses.” Speaking of the amount of money states generate from sports gambling; one of the largest sports betting events will take place this month. March Madness is only a few weeks away whereas Selection Sunday will take place this coming Sunday (March 14th). When filling out your brackets come Sunday, remember that team’s with elite defenses
typically display that defensive strength in each game; making them more consistent and reliable squads to advance in the tournament. Teams to “proceed with caution” are those that of which rely heavily on the 3-ball. If that does not put this discussion to rest: over the past 20 years, there has never been a team win the tournament that has been outside of the top 20 in defensive efficiency. As usual, make sure you are doing your due-diligence and conducting your own research. Especially given this specific tournament; make sure that you know which teams had to leave players behind due to COVID-19 protocols or what-have-you. Teams and their particular routines may be altered depending on varying COVID procedures that could significantly hinder a team’s play on the court. After all, athletes are in fact creatures of habit… Thus far, 26 of the 31 D1 basketball conferences have announced conference tournament winners meaning that 26 automatic bids to the “big dance” have been punched. Once all 31 conference tournaments have concluded, the comity will determine who the final 37 at-large bids are that will join the tournament.
Shifting away from the hardwood and towards the gridiron, the 2021 NFL Draft is only a month away. Although the NFL Combine will be non-existent this year, the disparity in college talent coming out this year will not be lacking in the slightest. Here is a list of the projected top five players at each offensive position entering the 2021 NFL Draft. Looking ahead to next NFL season, (assuming that there are fans in attendance) lets see if we can find value in the odds makers “over-valuing” home field advantage once these stadiums get their roaring crowds back to full capacity. I believe that the game lines and point-spreads will be inflated in favor of the home team because everyone and their mom over-values the “home field advantage” factor in NFL play. Let’s be honest here, home field advantage is far more “advantageous” in the college football realm. In 2020, we saw more visiting teams win on the road more than we ever have in NFL history. Sure, this was probably large in part due to the lack of fans packing in to cheer on their home team. However, what if this so called “home field advantage” is becoming less and less of and edge for not only the home teams, but for the betters as well?! Look for the odds makers and avid sports gambler to over state the 2020 data and sway more value towards home teams come this next 2021-22 NFL season. Hence, giving road underdogs extremely high leverage heading into the early part of the NFL season come September.
As for some last day college basketball conference tournament championship PICKS, I really like the St. Bonaventure Bonnies laying the 2.5 against the VCU Rams in the Atlantic 10 Championship. Tune into CBS tomorrow at 5 PM CST for the 2021 March Madness Selection Sunday Show. Best of luck this coming tournament! Lord knows that our bankroll and our brackets need it.
Well it’s official, college basketball will take after its funnel receiver, the NBA, by hosting its playoff structure within a “bubble.” Not only is this probably the right/smart decision by the NCAA; but it also makes us the viewers as beneficiaries as well. Let me explain: A typical March Madness tournament is stationed in eight competition sites for the first two rounds of the tournament. Eight separate sites essentially allows for eight games to be going on at once which is impossible to keep with, right?! Now that all games will be played in the Indianapolis, IN area, only six sites will now be utilized throughout the first round of March Madness. At first, this may not seem like too big of a difference; however, at second glance games should be scheduled in such a way that allows a viewer to tune in to college basketball all morning, day, and night! And that’s just the first round! (Ex: Game 1 (10am – 12pm) Game 2 (12pm – 2pm) Game 3 (2pm – 4pm) Game 4 (4pm – 6pm) Game 5 (6pm – 8pm) Game 6 (8pm – 10pm). Between you and I, this could be a death wish if you have a girlfriend or are married. For what it’s worth, Joe Lunardi’s current top four overall seeds consists of Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, and Virginia. Like most, I truly believe that it is Gonzaga and Baylor that have the most legitimate opportunity to cut down the nets. After watching a few games from both of these squads, I have concluded that they are both superior to all other programs in college basketball. Currently, you can get Gonzaga at +220 and Baylor +415 to win the national championship. To put these odds into perspective, the next closest team with better odds is Villanova (projected 1 seed) at +1000. Hence, by this point it is basically Gonzaga and Baylor vs. The field. It is important to not make these plays until you see a teams’ “path” to the Final Four. Far too often a team is placed in a far superior bracket than other schools, leaving opportunities for other programs with better chances to advance. Don’t get me wrong, Gonzaga and Baylor are by far the two best teams in college basketball, but what if they enter brackets with tough match-ups? As always, you must do your own homework. Always.
In case you live under a rock, Super Bowl LV is right around the corner. Once again, we the viewers are getting the best out of our sports! We get Mahomes and Brady to face off when no one thought that this match-up would ever be possible with Brady previously being a member of the AFC. Historically, in the past ten Super Bowls, the favorite as covered ATS five out of ten times – no trend worth noting, correct? In
addition, over the past ten Super Bowls, guess how many times the OVER/UNDER has hit? Yep, both five out of ten. So how do we gain any sort of significant edge? According to Action Network, teams that have point-spread lines move for them cover 67%. For example, if the Chiefs open at -3 favorites and close at -3.5 favorites than they would have a 67% chance to cover in the Super Bowl era. This Super Bowl marks the second highest total in the Super Bowl era (O/U 56.5). The highest total to close for the Superbowl was at 57 in Super Bowl LI (51) during the historic Patriots comeback versus the Matt Ryan lead Falcons. Being the second highest total, there is a reason this total is set so high, the odds makers truly believe that it is going to be a shoot-out meaning that if you are to bet the total, the only play would be to take the OVER, in my opinion. These two QB’s are accustomed to performing their best under the brightest of lights; and what lights are brighter than the Super Bowl?! Look for Brady and Mahomes to go blow-for-blow with one anther.
Best of luck come next Super Bowl Sunday following the horizon of our 2020 deprived March Madness tournament. Below is a quick Super Bowl LV pump-up video to get you into the sports gambling mood!
Well, believe it or not the 2020-21 College Football Bowl season is upon on… at least for now. Currently the first NCAAF bowl games is scheduled only eight days from now on December 19th in Frisco, TX. The presumed bowl season will go from the 19th of December until the 11th of January when the CFP National Championship will take place. However, should the NCAA move forward with these essentially meaningless match-ups known as Bowl Games. Thus far, ten of the original 43 bowl games have been canceled due to the ever persistent pandemic. By this point, time is ticking on these sponsorship, cities, stadiums, and ultimately the NCAA to decide if these games are in fact worth the wager on health concerns. President and Executive
Director of the Military Bowl stated, “there will be fewer pregame events for this year’s game, scheduled for Dec. 28 in Annapolis. Teams will arrive only two or so days before the game, unlike previous years when they were on site for nearly a week for a full schedule of tourist activities, dinners and other events.” To add to the irregularities, in recent years a program would have to win a minimum of six games in order to be eligible to receive a bowl game bid. However, in this 2020 season, you do not need six wins, or five, or four, or three, or two, or even one lousy win; nope, one’s win-loss record is not a qualification that is regarded in determining a bowl birth for the 2020 Bow Season. Hmmmmm
Aside from the bowl season as a whole, we now turn our attention to the BIG 10 at their recent decision to alter their preseason COVID-19 protocols. In early December, the BIG 10 announced that they would adjust their preseason rules/protocols previously stating that a school must have a minimum of six games of competition to compete in the BIG 10 Championship game. However, Ohio St. only has four games under their belt thus far with the season coming to an end. In this scenario, the BIG 10 is thinking one thing and one thing only. “We are going to lose out on so much money if Ohio St. does not play in our conferences championship game and ultimately the College Football Playoff.” Many would say that this treatment for Ohio St. is rather unfair and makes them and their program out to be superior to other schools in the conference. Ohio St. faces of against Northwester for the BIG 10 title game on December 19th. If victorious, the Buckeyes will be 6-0 and more than likely have a shot to compete in the CFP; for better or worse. Did the BIG 10 get this right, is it the right thing to do, is it moral, is money actually pretty important? All of these questions are left for us to ponder to make our own interpretations and judgement(s).
As we discuss the Bowl Season and its continuous for the time being; one college basketball coach is questioning the continuation of the season as a whole. Duke head coach, Mike Krzyzewski (Coach K) is concerned about continuing NCAAB play for the latter part of the season. Are his concerned justified? Or is he just a “worry-wart?” Let’s delve into it. He has this to say, “You have 2,000 deaths a day. You have 200,000 cases. People are saying the next six weeks are going be the worst. To me, it’s already pretty bad. On the other side of it, there are these vaccines that are coming out. By the end of the month 20 million vaccine shots will be given. By the end of January or in February, another 100 million. Should we not reassess that? See just
what would be best?…Do I think things should be done a little bit different? I mean, yeah. A lot of kids aren’t going to be able to go home for Christmas. It’s probably a time when they should, for mental health. But we’re just plowing through this.” I am in the camp of if all protocols and measures are taken to ensure that all staff and athletes are testing negative than all should be good in the world (the world of basketball at least), especially when there are few to no spectators attending these indoor match-ups. To heat things up, Alabama’s Head Coach (Nate Oats) “stir’s the pot” by questioning one of the most influential coach’s sincerity of his comments. Oats is under the impression that Coach K. is in favor of discontinuing the season large in part due to Duke’s uncharted start to the season with a current record of 2-2 being their worst start in more than 20 years. It is hard to argue with Coach K. and his statements; however, are his intentions authentic and genuine? In the mean time, NCAAB will continue and if you are like me we pray to God that their is a March Madness tournament at the conclusion of this year’s season.
Yesterday, the 2020 NBA Draft took place. With the number one overall pick, the Minnesota Timber-wolves selected Anthony Edwards out of Georgia. Following him, the next four picks in order were 2. James Wiseman (Memphis) – 3. LaMelo Ball (USA) – 4. Patrick Williams (Florida St.) – 5. Isaac Okoro (Auburn). This year’s draft was was a bit more unique than others in previous years. The “blue-blood”, usual suspect, highly drafted schools of Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, and Kentucky did not have a player drafted until the 15th overall pick. To put this into perspective, over the last three
years there have been 18 “blue-blood” drafted within the top 15 picks. This begs the question, are the top schools slowly losing their top-dog status? Or are others schools starting to close the gap that has been present for so many years? Or maybe a good mixture of both.
Obviously the NCAAF season is arguably in full swing. It does not take a rocket scientist to recognize that college football season is moving a crawl. Will the NCAAB basketball season follow? College basketball’s March Madness was the first large sporting event to be canceled due to COVID-19. We can only hope that the 2020 NCAAB season will go as smooth as possible concluding with a successful March Madness tournament. In fact, the NCAA and its colleagues have proposed that the entire March Madness tournament and its participants be held in a single location; that location being Indianapolis, IN. Typically, the first two rounds are held at specific sites followed by the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 locations. This new suggestion would completely eliminate these original thirteen sites to minimize the amount of travel that players, coaches, media, and fans would have to endure if the pandemic is still prevalent. While we are on the subject of March Madness where ever game played is at a neutral site for both squads; since 2005, the UNDER has hit 56% of the time on a neutral court throughout any point of the season. Early season match-ups that will be played at neutral sites include: Arizona St. (18) vs. Baylor (2), Kansas (6) vs. Gonzaga (1), and Houston (17) vs. Texas Tech (14).
Side note, with Drew Breese being labeled as OUT indefinitely, look to acquiring Taysom Hill in your fantasy leagues. If Jameis Winston starts to “Jameis Winston” and throws interceptions left and right than the New Orleans Saints will begin to utilize Hill more and more making him a very valuable fantasy roster spot.
Is it just me, or does it seem like we have not been given college basketball in quite some time? Luckily for us, the wait is just about over! The college basketball season officially tips off November 30th with the Maui Invitational. DISCLAIMER: The Maui Invitational will not be held in Maui, Hawaii; but rather in Asheville, North Carolina. Regardless, we get college basketball! I just feel slightly bad for those kids during their recruiting visit that were told they would have the opportunity to play in Hawaii this upcoming season… sorry bud, better luck next year. Nevertheless, basketball is basketball and a season is a season; at least for the time being. Stay up to date with Joe Leonardi’s Bracketology projections and this preseason Top 25 video below…
Similar to any other NCAAB season tip-off, many teams compete in non-conference tournaments (i.e “Maui” Invitational reference above) early in their respective seasons. Many of these games feature schools that are not accustomed to the “bright lights” of ESPN coverage. Hence, nerves are inevitably a bit higher being the beginning of the season and playing games that of which are nationally televised. This can be very daunting for young athletes, especially from those smaller, non Power 5 conference program players. Think about it – when you were 19 years old, would your performance alter (for better or for worse) if you knew that you would be watched by millions of viewers. Point being, this “altered” performance is typically in the negative direction. I understand that the “bright lights” can bring out the best in some athletes; however, the latter is more frequently exuded. In recent years, these early, non-conference match-ups tend to lean towards the UNDER; especially when point spreads are in the 20’s and 30’s meaning that a “power-house” is facing off against a small MEAC school, for example.
Now, while I’ve got you, we have to talk about this unusual 2020 MLB Postseason. Hell, who am I kidding, this whole year has been unusual, to say the least. Currently, the MLB Postseason is in the midst of both the American and National League Championships. Thus far the Rays are on top of the Astros (3 games to 2) in the American League and the Braves are leading the Dodgers (3 games to 1) in the National League. Once these match-ups have concluded, we will begin the 2020 MLB World Series. Although this season, postseason, and eventually World Series will differ than all others before; nevertheless, we can still use similar tactics, principles, and trends when gambling on this year’s World Series. Teams that are able to win the ALCS/NLCS in five or fewer games have an advantage if their World Series opponent went six or more games in their series. Why is this? Well besides the obvious answer of more rest, these teams now have the opportunity to map out and set their starting rotations to their preference; whereas their opponent that just got done with a hard fought seven game series may have to just go with the next man up approach. Over the past twelve years, the World Series favorite (once WS match-up is established) has gone 5-7. That’s an alarming stat, right?! Clearly, over recent years the underdog in World Series match-ups provides us (the bettor) with incredible value. Not only are you more likely to win, but your rate of return will be greater than that of which you wagered!
If the 2020 World Series does, in fact, consists of the Rays and Braves than I beg of you to please take the UNDER in each and every game. These two franchises have elite pitching staff’s with flame throwers left and right (see what I did there?) Also in my opinion, both of these teams have very average line-ups that I believe will not be able to keep up with one another’s pitching staff’s. UNDER UNDER UNDER if our 2020 World Series match-up consists of the Rays and Braves.
Weekend Football Picks:
SOUTH FLORIDA (+11) @ TEMPLE – Pick = SOUTH FLORIDA
Tournament action begins March 19th and their couldn’t be more questions that need to be answered going into this 2020 Madness of March. Is Kentucky’s young talent ready to make a run? Is this the year that a mid-major is crowned champion? Are Dayton and San Diego St. legit? Will the Tar Heels really miss the tournament? I could go on and on. You have to go back 21 years to the last time a mid-major school won the big tournament (UNLV).
As for this year’s tournament is concerned, I will lead by saying that the underdog spot may be quite beneficial in this year’s round of 68; even more so than other years. For additional information regarding this season’s parity you can visit a previous post at this LINK. For example, taking a look at the NBA’s mock draft, two of the first five picks are from mid-major programs (Dayton & Memphis).
Besides the obvious parity that exists every year in March, what other clues can we look for when making our plays? According to sport writer, Sascha Paruk, March Madness “survive-and-advancer’s” are not only good at winning their games outright, but also cover ATS at a higher clip than most. Nine of the last ten national champions covered at a 62% clip during their regular season match-ups. In addition, it is crucial to account for a team’s performance over their last three to six games. Far too often do we as the audience (including myself) take a team’s performance early in their season and put too much stock into a game or two that occurred over two months ago. If you notice that team with a weak record has won four out of their last five games is facing off with a squad that is 24-6 but has lost four of their last five. The team playing better might not be too bad of a play; especially if they are getting double digit pints. This next clue is obvious in nature, but is taken for granted by most. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE! Last year’s Virginia national champions were the best team in all of DI basketball at points allowed per game (56.1). Defense is superior during this time of the year. The most balanced and defensive minded teams are built to make a run. Take a second and third look at those mid-major’s that allow few points to not only cover the point-spread(s); but perhaps even make a run!
I believe that we are in store for a wild, and exciting March. The typical blue bloods such as North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, and UCLA are not at the caliber that these programs are typically at during this time of the year. Hence, leaving that “mid-major-window” much more open than it normally has been in recent years. Remember, do your homework! Just because a school that has had success in the past is facing a mid-major whose mascot is a mystery to you does not mean that they cannot win outright. As always, best of luck and Happy Madness!
NCAAB is now in full swing. Thus far, we have seen it all in this 2019-2020 college basketball season. We have seen everything from WWE style brawls to the major upsets that Kentucky and Duke both suffered as 28.5 and 25.5 point favorites (Duke losing to Stephen F. Austin, whereas Kentucky fell short to Evansville).
Merriam Webster’s Dictionary defines the term parity as, “the quality or state of being equal or equivalent.” The 2019-2020 NCAAB season has displayed this so called “parity” more so than ever. Underdogs are covering at a scale-tipping rate this season. Now a days, more and more mid-major schools are striving to keep up with the Power 5 programs in terms of scholarship amounts and quality in facilities, just to name a few. As these smaller programs begin to creep their way into the equivalence of the Duke’s and Kentucky’s of the world, we should begin to notice that the college basketball parity will be here to stay for the long haul. As you assess your next presumable plays, ask yourself, “why can this underdog not cover?” As opposed to, “how could this underdog possibly cover?” Understand the difference? Other than the Duke and Kentucky examples above, parity may reveals itself many fashions; one of those being the current Bracketology projections administered by Joe Lunardi. Currently, Lunardi has only 30 of the 68 fielded teams in the tournament as Power 5 conference schools. That’s not even half! Not to mention that San Diego St. (non Power 5 program) is currently slated as a number one seed.
Since 1980, the Super Bowl underdog has covered the point spread 52% of the time, the favorite has covered 45% of the time, and the point spread has pushed 3% of the games. This could pose some value when making your Super Bowl plays. However, the true value lies in the OVER/UNDER when it comes to Super Bowl match-ups. This value comes straight fromyour own personal intuition. The 49ers offense is predicated on their rushing abilities. If you couple that with their highly touted defense, then the UNDER is surely to hit if they come out on top of Super Bowl 54. Hence, if you like the 49ers to win, go with the UNDER. On the flip side, if you think that the Chiefs will comeout on top, go with the OVER. Do not be afraid to parlay these two scenarios… (49ers/UNDER or Chiefs/OVER).
Friendly Tip: Prop bets (also refers to as side bets) should be utilized for entertainment purposes only! These prop bets might include: Coin Toss, National Anthem Length, Gatorade Shower Color, and so on. There is typically no real value or edge that can be gathered from these types of bets. Hence, virtually making each of their outcomes a flip of a coin.