Sin City – 7/23/17

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I was road-triping with my girlfriend the other week as we were headed to Scottsdale, AZ to visit my father and step-mother. We made a pit stop in Las Vegas, or commonly known as “Sin City.” Although my stay in Vegas did not even make it to a full 24-hours, I still managed to place a bet at Venetian’s sports book.

Naturally, I observed the upcoming MLB games for that particular day and stumbled across one that caught my eye for what ever reason. I noticed that the Chicago White Sox were visiting the Chicago Cubs. Pitching that game for the White Sox was Miguel Gonzalez (veteran) with an ERA on the season of 4.85. For the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks was named their starter for the day (not a veteran). Although Hendricks has a much more favorable ERA over Gonzalez (3.70), I possess the opinion that he is a bit overrated.

There are three important factors that compelled me to place this bet as opposed to any of the other games for that day (7/24/17). First, the Cubs were “over-favored,” if you will, for this particular matchup. At the time I opened the bet, the Cubs were a -265 favorite, whereas the White Sox were sitting at +220. Without a doubt, I felt that the risk was worth the reward. Second, the Cubs were hosting the White Sox at Wrigley Field giving them the “home-field” advantage. However, this is hardly a home-field advantage situation since both teams are located in Chicago. Last, the White Sox were in the middle of a rugged nine game losing skid. Hence, they were bound to break out of it at some point. After all, what better way to end your losing streak than doing so against your rivals in a very much winnable game?! Notice: I am not advising to gamble on teams that are on long losing streaks. I simply placed the bet baring other factors before this one. The circumstances that were presented in this particular event allowed me to believe that the White Sox had a decent chance of escaping their nine game “funk.”

It is safe to assume that I was later able to cash this ticket in at the sports book as a winner. Otherwise I would not be sharing this short story with you all. The point being, don’t be afraid to place a few bets on the underdog. Sure they are not supposed to win; but if you truly believe that the reward outweighs the risk then you have yourself a good bet! For instance, on this particular ticket I put down $42 to win $92. That means that the little slip of paper shown in the slideshow below was worth $134. On the flip side, since the Cubs were favored at -265 according to the money-line, then that same $42 that I put down would only win me about $16. This would make that same ticket only worth $58.

Here are a few pictures from our short, yet sweet, stay in Las Vegas…

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For tomorrow (8/15/17)…

MLB Picks:

KC (-117) @ OAK — I like Oakland in this game because they are at home and throwing an arm that they rarely face. The Royals do not hit new pitchers well.

HOU (-110) @ ARZ — I like Houston because they are pitching Brad Peacock who is 10-1 on the season. Also, the Astro’s are facing Zach Grenke tonight, this will give them the opportunity to see someone not as skilled and sharp tomorrow. Think of it as trying to run a mile in under six minutes one day, and the very next day being asked to run the same mile in seven minutes. You are more likely to finish on time in the seven-minute mile even if you do not finish the six-minute mile in time.

CWS @ LAD (-335) — I like the White Sox pick in this particular matchup just because of how high the money line discrepancy is. Typically, if the Dodgers are favored by this much then Clayton Kershaw would be pitching. Wrong! Alex Wood is scheduled the start. Although Wood is having a Cy Young caliber type year, he is always suspect to a loss with his average fastball. Also, guess who is pitching for the White Sox?! Yep, Miguel Gonzalez. Just a thought.

Have fun and good luck. See ya next time better’s!

***Keep in mind, a monkey could just pick all of the favorites for tomorrow’s games. However, I am factoring in the money-line and whether or not I believe the reward outweighs the risk when choosing underdogs.

And so it begins…

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The 2017 Major League Baseball season is now in full swing. The great aspect of gambling on baseball is that each and every day there are new match-ups with a new set of pitchers toeing the rubber. One thing that I have learned throughout the process of sports gambling is to establish a theory. This unique theory of yours that you will want to develop is neither right nor wrong and does not only pertain to gambling on baseball. After you have your theory put into place, you will want to allow about a month, give or take, to test your theory/hypothesis and see which way it is trending. Is your theory trending in the direction that you foresee? Or is it going wayside of everything you thought to be true? If you tend to experience the second option more frequently than the first then that’s okay, just form an alternative hypothesis and run with it. Trial and error baby!

If all of this thus far seems like gibberish, no worries—bare with me. I am going to offer you a personal example of mine that I have found to be quite successful in the past, present, and I presume in the future. I began noticing that in baseball especially, both teams have the best chances of winning each time they compete against one another (similar to hockey considering they both use the same betting format—money lines). Baseball differs from other sports in the sense that the average sports fan typically has a pretty good idea of who is going to come out victorious in comparison to sports such as basketball and football, for example. My theory/hypothesis is quite simple, yet fairly consistent. Purely from a baseball standpoint, I believe that a team at home that loses a game against an opponent will increase their chances of winning the next game by about 25% if it is again played at home against the same team. It is important to keep in mind that baseball series are usually structured around three game or even four game sets, all taken place at one of the teams’ home venues. One other key factor to note, if a home team loses against opponent ‘A’ and turns around the next day to begin another three game home stand against opponent ‘B’ then the theory goes out the window.

Summary: When gambling on baseball, take a quick peak at the money line. If Boston (+135) is facing Toronto (-149) then Toronto is the favorite in this particular match up. The -149 indicates that you must bet $149 to win $100 if Toronto wins. On the flip side, you only need to bet $65 to win $100 if Boston wins. However, for my own unique theory, the money lines is irrelevant, for better or worse. To start, each day jot down the home teams that lost. Once tomorrow roles around, see if those same home teams that fell short the day before came up with a win the very next day, or the current day (which ever way you would prefer to think about it). Go ahead and try it for yourself. I think you will find these results to be very one sided and propel you towards the excitement you need to begin gambling on baseball!