Beginning & Ends…
The MLB Draft, and every other sports draft for that fact, marks the beginning of a young high school or college athlete’s professional playing career. In turn, the NBA Finals marks the end of a rather lengthy season that is nearing its completion. As the NBA Finals get underway on June 1st in Denver, here are some betting trends to considering that are specific to the Finals. If you enjoy placing your money on the game totals, history shows that Game 2 UNDERS are more profitable, whereas Game 3 OVERS are more lucrative. In general, if a game has a relatively high total (i.e. O/U: 223.5) then “laying” the points with the favorite might have a better chance of cashing in. If there are supposed to be a lot of points scored in any given game, then wouldn’t it make sense that the probability of outscoring an opponent by a larger margin to become more likely? Hence covering the spread. The same could be said for the other scenario; if a game has a relatively low total (i.e. O/U: 206.5) then “getting” the points via the underdog could be a more strategic approach as not as many points are expected to be scored. Hence, making it theoretically more difficult for one team to really acquire an extended lead over the other; giving the advantage to the underdog receiving plus points (i.e. +7.5). Lastly, it is probably in your best interest to shy away from siding with Game 4 home teams after they come off of a Game 3 home win. Teams in these spots are typically in the negative on your rate-of-return ATS. The O/U currently sits at 219 while the Nuggets are a 9-point home-favorite against the Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals (ESPN). My advise: if you like the Heat ATS – hammer the UNDER. If you are siding with the Nuggets ATS – play the OVER.
If you’re interested in hitting on 60% of your bets, you should take a look at siding with those road-underdogs on the run-line in Major League Baseball. Don’t be a sucker! Be wary of those home-favorites on the run-line (40% ATS-RL). As for the game totals are concerned, I would love to give you some advice, but OVERS and UNDERS are both covering at 50% clips as it currently stands – flip a coin!
With the 2023 MLB Draft just over a month away, I find it puzzling as to why baseball seems to be the only major sport to hold its draft in the middle of its season. Maybe there is a rhyme or a reason for it, but for the sake of my time and typing fingers, we will save that investigative work for someone else. Nevertheless, the draft will be held on July 11th with the Pittsburg Pirates leading off. They are expected to take LSU’s OF, Dylan Crews, who is currently batting at a scorching .420 clip and getting on base more times than not each plate appearance! Click the link below for the latest first-round mock draft.
TIP: While MLB totals are essentially a flip of a coin at this point, take a look at finding angles for OVERS to hit after a game concludes with very few runs scored and UNDERS after a game in which runs were plentiful. Think of this a angle as a balancing act, when one games goes OVER/UNDER the opposite needs to occur to get back to that 50% that the totals are trending thus far.