Beginning & Ends…

May 31, 2023

The MLB Draft, and every other sports draft for that fact, marks the beginning of a young high school or college athlete’s professional playing career. In turn, the NBA Finals marks the end of a rather lengthy season that is nearing its completion. As the NBA Finals get underway on June 1st in Denver, here are some betting trends to considering that are specific to the Finals. If you enjoy placing your money on the game totals, history shows that Game 2 UNDERS are more profitable, whereas Game 3 OVERS are more lucrative. In general, if a game has a relatively high total (i.e. O/U: 223.5) then “laying” the points with the favorite might have a better chance of cashing in. If there are supposed to be a lot of points scored in any given game, then wouldn’t it make sense that the probability of outscoring an opponent by a larger margin to become more likely? Hence covering the spread. The same could be said for the other scenario; if a game has a relatively low total (i.e. O/U: 206.5) then “getting” the points via the underdog could be a more strategic approach as not as many points are expected to be scored. Hence, making it theoretically more difficult for one team to really acquire an extended lead over the other; giving the advantage to the underdog receiving plus points (i.e. +7.5). Lastly, it is probably in your best interest to shy away from siding with Game 4 home teams after they come off of a Game 3 home win. Teams in these spots are typically in the negative on your rate-of-return ATS. The O/U currently sits at 219 while the Nuggets are a 9-point home-favorite against the Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals (ESPN). My advise: if you like the Heat ATS – hammer the UNDER. If you are siding with the Nuggets ATS – play the OVER.

If you’re interested in hitting on 60% of your bets, you should take a look at siding with those road-underdogs on the run-line in Major League Baseball. Don’t be a sucker! Be wary of those home-favorites on the run-line (40% ATS-RL). As for the game totals are concerned, I would love to give you some advice, but OVERS and UNDERS are both covering at 50% clips as it currently stands – flip a coin!

With the 2023 MLB Draft just over a month away, I find it puzzling as to why baseball seems to be the only major sport to hold its draft in the middle of its season. Maybe there is a rhyme or a reason for it, but for the sake of my time and typing fingers, we will save that investigative work for someone else. Nevertheless, the draft will be held on July 11th with the Pittsburg Pirates leading off. They are expected to take LSU’s OF, Dylan Crews, who is currently batting at a scorching .420 clip and getting on base more times than not each plate appearance! Click the link below for the latest first-round mock draft.

2023 MLB Mock Draft

TIP: While MLB totals are essentially a flip of a coin at this point, take a look at finding angles for OVERS to hit after a game concludes with very few runs scored and UNDERS after a game in which runs were plentiful. Think of this a angle as a balancing act, when one games goes OVER/UNDER the opposite needs to occur to get back to that 50% that the totals are trending thus far.

Segway into Spring…

March 31, 2023

The stage is set for the 2023 Men’s Final Four. Representing the South region is San Diego St. (5). They will be facing the winners of the East region, Florida Atlantic (9). Representing the West region is UCONN (4). They will be facing the winners of the Midwest region, Miami (5). With how much talk is surrounding the “randomness” of this year’s Final Four, I think it is worth mentioning the total of each team’s seed added up. Obviously, the lowest number of seeds added up that reach the Final Four can be 4 (when all #1 seeds reach the Final Four *occurred in 2008*). If you look at it this way, this has been the second most random Final Four since tournament seeding began in 1979. This year’s total is at 23; only the 2011 Final Four accumulated a higher total than this year. The 2011 Final Four featured UCONN (3), Kentucky (4), Butler (8), and VCU (11). For those of you counting at home, that adds up to 26; deeming it the most random Final Four of all time!

Currently, San Diego St. are slight favorites over the Owls of FAU (+2). The other match-up favors the UCONN Huskies (-5.5) against Miami. Vegas believes that these two games will be far different from one another, however. The totals for these two games are separated by 18 points. FAU vs. SDSU (O/U: 131.5), MIA vs. UCONN (O/U: 149.5). By this point in the tournament, all of these teams are “clicking” offensively. However, if your gut is screaming at you to hammer the UNDER then I would advise looking at making a play at the 1H UNDER(s). Typically, it takes a bit for these Final Four games to get into a rhythm and flow. Especially since these athletes have probably never performed in a 75,000 seated stadium before; shots might be a touch off with an unfamiliar backdrop, extra nerves are still present, you name it. I use three metrics to track any givens team’s offensive efficiency/output with a grading system based on a singular threshold that grades a team on a pass-fail system. The three metrics are FG% (threshold 45%), FT% (threshold 71%), and 3PT% (threshold 36%). All four of these teams are above these metrics’ thresholds, aside from UCONN’s three-point field goal percentage, which is only slightly below the threshold at 35.7%. Point being, although these teams are pretty stout on the defensive side, their offenses are just as powerful and efficient; so much so that I would have a hard time siding with the UNDER in these two matchups – unless, of course, it is for the first half.

Heading to the outdoors, MLB Opening Day began on Thursday with some fascinating pitching match-ups on display: Aaron Nola (PHL) vs. Jacob deGrom (TEX) and Shane Bieber (CLV) vs. Luis Castillo (SEA), just to name a few. Although still seven months out, let’s take a look at the current World Series champion odds via MyBookie. The Astros are the current favorites (+600), followed by the Braves and Dodgers (+700), and both of the New York franchises sitting at +750. The oddsmakers foresee a 2021 World Series match-up between Houston and Atlanta. Click HERE to view the full list of odds. Action Network provides useful early season MLB betting angles to be on the lookout for when making your MLB plays. For the most part, early season baseball lines are based on assumptions, right? Then it would be to no surprise that early season underdogs with a money-line greater than +140 have profited 15% since 2005. In addition, road underdogs could provide even more value as home field advantage might be overvalued in the early parts of the year, simply because traveling squads are not yet experiencing jet lag and/or general travel lethargy. Those factors may become more prominent as the season moves along and the temperatures rise.

Sport lovers can rejoice after research shows that attending live sporting events and life satisfaction correlate. Researchers surveyed 7,209 individuals from ages 16 to 85. “The analysis showed that attending a live sporting event made for higher self-reported scores on life satisfaction and lower scores on loneliness. Participants who had attended a live sporting event within the past year were more likely to report that their lives were worthwhile – adding a live game into the mix predicted higher self-reported life satisfaction than some demographic factors, such as age or employment, that can indicate how worthwhile someone finds their life” (Blakemore, 2023). This seems like it could be a very useful card to pull on my wife when trying to buy tickets to a sporting event!

March 31st, 2023 MLB Road Underdogs
White Sox @ Astros+125
Rockies @ Padres+165
Guardians @ Mariners+140
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers+160
early season underdogs have profited 15% on the ML since 2005 (MLB)

Better late than never…

February 10, 2023

The 57th Super Bowl marks the first time that two opposing Black quarterbacks will face off head-to-head. This is a rather remarkable storyline considering there have been 56 of these things and Black quarterbacks have been playing the position since the 60s (at least at the NFL level). Nevertheless, this fascinating matchup presents two teams with the same records and the exact same number of points scored (546). The major difference between the two is that one likes to score their TD’s via the air (Chiefs), while the other prefers to acquire points on the ground (Eagles). Super Bowl LVII has the all the fixings to be one for the ages! Some trends to look for when making your plays this weekend: In the last 55 Super Bowl’s, the O/U has gone 27-28. However, when the total is set above 48 (like this year’s matchup) then the OVER hits only 18% of the time (2 of 11). That is one trend that I would not want to fade. I foresee the Eagles making a strong effort to establish and maintain their prolific running game to play “keep-away” from Patrick Mahomes and the best scoring offense in the NFL. If successful, the contest could be “shortened” as running the ball chews up more clock than passing the ball typically would, allowing for fewer points to be scored. Currently, the O/U sits at 51.

Throughout the “dead-week” that occurs each year between the Conference Championships and Super Bowl, every sports analyst and their mom’s were mocking their 2023 NFL Drafts. Personally, I typically like what Mel Kiper Jr. has to say on the topic and believe that he, unlike many, has a very good understanding of the NFL Draft from top to bottom. With that being said, here is Mel’s latest and greatest 2023 NFL Mock Draft (first ten picks only)

As a sports enthusiast and sports gambling blogger, I had the great privilege to interview a renowned sports gambling insider, Patrick Everson. Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for Vegas Insider. He is a published journalist in the national sports betting world. Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas. Everson attended Journalism school at Colorado

University (Boulder), where he was a beat writer and sports editor in the early 90s. With March Madness right around the corner, I wanted to get his perspective on the sport and events surrounding it. He explains that, without a doubt, both March Madness and sports gambling have exponentially elevated sporting new outlet mediums (i.e. ESPN). I asked Everson for one piece of advice he would provide to a sports gambler, and he stated: “Never bet more than you can afford to lose.” For the whole interview in its entirety CLICK HERE. March Madness’s Selection Show is set for March 12th following the First 4 tipping off on March 14th. Currently Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology #1 seeds are Houston, Purdue, Alabama, Arizona.

While we are on the subject of basketball, let’s take a look at some mid-season college basketball trends to keep an eye out for to gain a slight edge when making our NCAAB plays. If you have read a few posts from this blog, you will probably recall mention(s) of my advocacy for siding with underdogs, especially when they are the home team. Once again, as it currently stands halfway through the college basketball season, home-dogs are the most profitable play, even among the O/U totals. In no way am I stating to only “hammer” those home-dogs, but rather to proceed with caution when wanting to side with away-favorites. Easy enough, right? If only it was that easy, we would all be rich! Good luck out there and Happy Super Bowl weekend; GO CHIEFS!

BASEketball in real life…

November 4, 2022

College basketball is officially underway, at least the exhibition games are, where the big DI powerhouses get to beat up on the lower division schools. The regular season tips-off Monday with games slated all throughout the day beginning at 11am to 11pm CST. I would be remiss to not mention the preseason AP poll. Mr. Lunardi has been so kind to provide us with a preseason look at what he expects the 2023 March Madness bracket to be compiled of. Preseason Bracketology

Specifically looking at the non-Power 5 conferences: Ohio Valley, MEAC, etc, I want to take advantage of a particular early season betting angle. There is not nearly the amount of insight and knowledge surrounding these smaller programs, which gives way for more “holes” in these handicapping lines. I recommend siding with teams that are getting points (underdog) in the first game or two. We might as well take the points while the lines are not as sharp as they might become later in the season when there is a lot more data and statistics to develop these lines.

1North Carolina
2Gonzaga
3Houston
4Kentucky
5Kansas
6Baylor
7Duke
8UCLA
9Creighton
10Arkansas
11Tennessee
12Texas
13Indiana
14TCU
15Auburn
16Villanova
17Arizona
18Virginia
19San Diego St.
20Alabama
21Oregon
22Michigan
23Illinois
24Dayton
25Texas Tech
Preseason AP NCAAB Rankings

Now that we have reached the halfway point of the 2022-2023 NFL season, the most polarizing plays have been on the game TOTALS. Specifically looking at Week’s 1-6, the average total for all games played within this six-week span has gone OVER just once (W4). The other five weeks have averaged a net total of 42 points scored where the average game TOTAL was listed at 45 O/U. If you were blindly “hammering” the UNDER thus far then you would be one happy customer, covering at a 58.2% clip. Taking a look at some other profitable, at least up to this point, trends around the NFL; home underdogs are covering at a 55.1% rate while road underdogs are even more profitable at 58.3% ATS. Overall, underdogs are 69-52-3; the dogs are barkin’ in the first eight weeks! This Monday we are presented with a home underdog as the Saints (+2.5) host the Ravens on MNF. In this spot, home underdogs cover 57% ATS. I would advise siding with the Saints come Monday night, especially if you can get them at +3.

Game 6 of the World Series is set for 7PM CST in Houston. Las Vegas believes that the Astros will be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy tonight as -145 favorites. The TOTAL for this matchup currently sits at 6.5 or 7, depending on where you’re shopping. I love the OVER in this particular game as both teams’ batting lineups have already seen starting pitchers Zack Wheeler (Phillies) and Framber Valdez (Astros). Game 2 featured these two starters as the TOTAL ended in 7. Now that the hitters from both clubs get to see these two again just seven days later gives the advantage to the offense more so than the defense/pitching. Game 2 stats: Wheeler (5 IP – 5 R), Valdez (6.1 IP – 1 R). Don’t overthink this one, give me the OVER (especially if you can get it at 6.5 O/U).

Football nation has week 1 elations…

September 6, 2022

The countdown to football season is one of the most anticipated “look-aheads” in all of sports. As Happy Gilmore once famously quoted, “…364 more days until next year’s hockey tryouts…” Some fan bases would tell you that the countdown begins once they come to the realization that their team has a better chance of giving up 100 points in a single game than make the playoffs. Sometimes, this optimism from such fan bases is warranted seeing how on average six of the 14 playoff members are not present in the following season. For example, these teams were absent from the 2021 NFL Playoffs but were members in the 2022 tournament: Cincinnati, Las Vegas, New England, Arizona, San Francisco, Dallas, and Philadelphia. This year exceeded the six number with seven new members entering the NFL Playoffs. So why not start your countdown as soon as possible because each new season is just that! The parody surrounding the NFL is real and might go in the favor of your team any given year! So without further ado, game one of the NFL regular season is just two days out which features the Rams hosting the Bills on September 8th for Thursday Night Football. Here is the full slate of the NFL Week 1 matchups.

With the preseason underway, we finally get to see some of the new faces and “old” faces in new uniforms. We are all aware of the Brown’s newest and rather suspect acquisition, Deshawn Watson. However, who were some of the other house-hold-names making big splashes around the league? There were a plethora as the league saw Russell Wilson become a Bronco, Tyreek Hill dive into Miami, Khalil Mack came to the Chargers, Davante Adams lusted over Las Vegas as he was reunited with his former college quarterback, Derek Carr. To round out some of the more impactful off season transactions, Matt Ryan was enticed to move to Indianapolis. The lack of continuity that will inevitably exist between a good portion of these franchises could make for a rather unpredictable fantasy football season featuring a rather large amount of “sleepers” emerging whereas those previously mentioned “house-hold-names” could be overvalued if one were to assume that they would continue to produce at a high level despite the change of scenery. In regards to your fantasy football lineups, two teams come to mind when looking to acquire some potential “sleepers” at the WR position. The Cowboys and Chiefs, both of which lost their number one options at the receiving position via trades. Amari Cooper is now a Brown whereas Tyreek Hill is now a Dolphin. With Cooper being targeted 104 times and Hill 159 times, those 263 targets are going to be divvied up amongst other wide-receivers between these two franchises. The Cowboys WR Depth Chart is as follows: CeeDee Lamb > Jalen Tolbert > Noah Brown > Dennis Houston. The Chiefs WR room is as follows: JuJu Smith-Schuster > Marquez Valdes-Scantling > Mecole Hardman > Skyy Moore. As far as running-backs are concerned, fantasypros.com recommends taking a flyer on the following available free-agent RB’s in your respective league(s): Dameon Pierce (Texans), Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders), Jerick McKinnon (Chiefs), Darrell Henderson Jr. (Rams).

The OVER hit at a 57% rate this preseason. For our Week 1 plays, let’s continue to be on the side of this trend when making our O/U plays with one caveat – divisional rivals tend to favor scores resulting in the UNDER. There you have it, an easy Week 1 blind-play for ya! Divisional opponents = UNDER, all others = OVER. For the record, six of the sixteen Week 1 match-ups are within a division (i.e. AFC West).

If we take the names on the back of the jerseys away from our sports gambling strategies, we can hone in on some previous NFL Week 1 trends to get us ahead of the 8-ball before we even begin to calculate and determine our Week 1 plays. Although there are typically only three NFL preseason opponents nowadays, it is said that if a team goes 0-4 in these games then they only have a 30% ATS rate against their Week 1 opponent. Now that there are only the three games, we only saw one team this preseason windup sitting at 0-4, the Jaguars *only two teams competed in four preseason games: the Raiders and Jaguars by way of the annual NFL Hall of Fame game in Canton, OH.* Nevertheless, there could still be some potential value in fading the handful of teams that finished 0-3: Bucs, Chargers, Commanders, Seahawks, and Vikings. Let’s keep an eye on these six teams as maybe there is some validity and insightfulness to these “waste-of-time” preseason games. Another aspect that we can blindly use for our Week 1 plays around the NFL falls within the turnover margin umbrella. You see, history shows that teams that accrued poor turnover differential one year typically display a much more gracious margin the following year. In a nutshell, this statistic is said to be more so based on luck as opposed to anything else; giving way for a “what goes up, must come down” correlation between any two given franchises seasons. Now, let’s take a look at some of the top performers and under achievers in the 2021 NFL campaign, as far as turnover differential is concerned – shall we?! Of the six teams provided that finished the preseason at 0-3 or 0-4, three of which finished the previous season with a positive turnover margin over their opponents. The Vikings, Bucs, and Seahawks tallied a combined +26 turnover differential. I foresee the tides to turn and for at least two of these organizations to not cover their respective Week 1 point-spread lines. Week 1 features the Packers @ Vikings (+2.5), Bucs @ Cowboys (+2), and the Broncos @ Seahawks (+4.5). Of these three matchups, I am leaning towards fading the Bucs laying a couple of points on the road. Maybe, just maybe, this is the season that Brady finally begins to physically deplete while Dak hits his peak. Give me the points for the home underdog!

LEGALIZE IT! Sports gambling is becoming more wide spread…

June 16, 2022

It’s official! Kansas becomes the 35th U.S. state to recognize sports gambling as a business, entertainment, and funding endeavor. This news is well deserving of a post as a ten year resident of the state of Kansas (and employee for the state for that matter). Anyways, Gov. Laura Kelly (D) signed and passed said bill on May 12th giving way to a whole new form of state tax funding all while betters alike rejoice! Ahh, the ole’ win-win! Below is a timeline of the history and evolution of sports gambling as we know it today.

  • 1949 – Nevada legalizes recreational sports gambling

  • 1951 – Federal government imposes a 10% tax on all sports wagering profits from casinos/bookies

  • 1992 – PASPA is put into law banning advertising, licensing, etc. of sports wagering of any kind is prohibited (Professional Armature Sports Protection Act)

  • 1994 – First known and proven occurrence of games been “fixed” based on sports wagering motives (Arizona St. basketball guard – Stevin Smith)

  • 2018 – New Jersey becomes the second state to legalize sports gambling 69 years later

  • Present – currently 33 states have some form of legalized sports gambling whether that be online, in the casinos, or both

This time of the year brings us the conclusion of the NFL Draft, the finish line to the lengthy and unnecessary tournament format that is the NBA Playoffs, the College Baseball World Series, and the heart of the the MLB regular season. The MLB regular season will hit the halfway point in July; by this point we have more than enough of a sample size to dive into some of the analytical trends that we can look for when making our plays. The numbers suggest favoring AWAY-UNDERDOGS on the run line (+1.5). These

teams are currently covering at a 58% rate. Tonight, those teams include: the Athletics, Orioles, and Rays. As far as the totals are concerned, the UNDER gives betters a slight edge covered at a 52% clip. Diving a bit deeper, at the individual team level the Astros are the most lucrative franchise with their games hitting the UNDER 69% of the time (31% OVER). On the other side of the spectrum, the Phillie’s games go UNDER only 40% of the time (60% OVER) The MLB Draft is about a month out (July 17th) and could we see a mid-major shortstop going first overall to the Orioles?! One mock draft has Cal-Poly shortstop, Brookes Lee, as the first overall pick (mlb.com). The Mustang’s shortstop hit .357 with 25 doubles, 15 home runs while racking up more walks (46) than strikeouts (28) this spring. CLICK HERE to access mlb.com 2022 MLB Mock Draft.

Kansas to legalize sports gambling!

NBA Playoffs are heating up, and so can you…

May 6, 2022

The 2022 NBA Playoffs are coming down to the wire as we currently find ourselves in the middle of the Conference Semifinals. While there have not been any upsets (in terms of seeding) up to this point, will the trend continue to persist, or begin to veer off and give rise to some advancement from the current underdogs? Tonight features the Celtics traveling to Milwaukee to face the Bucks (MIL leads 2-1) whereas in the West, the Warriors host the Grizzlies in a series favoring Golden State two games to one. After sifting through potential ATS edges throughout the entirety of the 2021-22 NBA season; nothing of significance stood out to me that would move the needle in terms of possesses a sports gambling advantage. However, to view this in a different lens, the least lucrative play this season has been placing your bets to back the Home-Underdogs. These teams have only covered 47% of the time throughout the league. More importantly to note, Home-Underdogs in the playoffs are 7-10 ATS; that’s good an even lesser 41%. Let’s go ahead and shy away from these guys the remainder of the playoffs, yeah?

The 2022 NBA Draft is just over a month away beginning on June 23rd with the draft lottery selection taking place on May 17th. The Rockets, Magic, and Pistons all have the best odds to receive the first pick in this year’s draft. There is not consensus clear-cut number one pick leading up to the draft. Many mock drafts have differing opinions with some placing Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga), Paolo Banchero (Duke), Jabari Smith (Auburn), or Jaden Ivey (Purdue) as the first selection in the draft by one of the previously mention teams.

  • Gonzaga Bulldogs center Chet Holmgren (34) drives hard to the basket; Gonzaga defeats UCLA Basketball 83-63, November 23, 2021, Las Vegas, NV.

Royals royalty…

February 26, 2022

This upcoming weekend my dad and I were all set to attend a few Spring Training games in Surprise, AZ. As all of you have probably heard, these games are not going to take place across both the Cactus and Grapefruit League’s. A mixture of sadness and angry flow through my body as I have yet to attend an MLB spring training game in my 28 year old lifetime. As an avid baseball fan, coach, and guru one would have to assume that this little trip has been on my bucket list for quite sometime – and you’d be correct. With no baseball on the horizon I decided to come up with my hometown team’s “all-time” stating lineup. The Kansas City Royals have won two World Series titles and a good portion of this list and lineup helped bring those championships back to Kansas City.

For this evaluation I chose the best Royals player of all time for each position along with three starting pitchers and a relief pitcher. If the MLB lockout persists, I plan to post more where other teams are featured. My all-time Royals starting pitchers compiled 552 wins with a combined career ERA of 3.52 (Paul Splittorff, Zack Greinke, and Bret Saberhagen). Coming out the bullpens as the career saves leader for Kansas City with 304 career saves is Jeff Montgomery. The catcher for the Royals hold the single season homerun record for the club and holds a career batting average of .270. He is a fan favorite and brings a smile to everyone’s faces, especially children (Salvador Perez – 7x All Star, 5x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, World Series MVP). At 1st base, this player possesses a career .297 average while being the one bright spot for the Royals franchise during its darkest period in the late 90’s and early 2000’s (Mike Sweeney – 5x All Star). The second basemen for the Kansas City Royals dream team lead the MLB twice in number of hits and is a two time All Star (Whit Merrifield). Standing at the hot corner is a player who many would argue to be the greatest Royal of all time. This ball-player holds a career batting average of .305, leads the Royals franchise is number of base-hits along with many other statistical categories (George Brett – AL MVP, 13x All Star, 1x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger, 3x Batting Title, ALCS MVP). The shortstop for this squad number is retired by the Royals and is now seen on television as a commercial spokesman and MLB Network analyst. He is a speedster and a muscle man with 160 career homeruns and 178 stolen bases (Frank White – 5x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, ALCS MVP). Originally a third basemen in college, the quote-un-quote “hometown kid” was the Royal’s first round pick in 2005 out of the Nebraska University.

This player was one of three crucial pieces to winning the 2015 World Series against the New York Mets; your left fielder, Alex Gordon (3x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, 2x Platinum Glove). To Alex Gordon’s left, the center fielder for the all-time Royals was a late round draft pick out of a junior college in Florida. This outfielder was the third pivotal piece for the Royals World Series success in 2015 (Lorenzo Cain – 2x All Star, 1x Gold Glove, ALCS MVP). Our final player for the Royals all-time franchise team is not only our right fielder, but the oldest Royal in this particular line-up. This batting is a career .290 hitter while playing for the Royals for 15 seasons (Hal McRae – 3x All Star, 1x Silver Slugger).

Click through the slideshow to take a look at each of the “all-time” Royals to put a face to the name and all of the achievements that each of them has tallied up throughout their great careers. Tonight in NCAAB I like the Cornhuskers on Senior Night over the Hawkeyes as 12.5 point dogs and the UNDER on this game of 161.5 as Iowa shot lights out the other night against Michigan St. I do not foresee them shooting this well in back-to-back games; hence, siding with the lower TOTAL margin.

Who’s the real beneficiary here?…

January 29, 2022

After reading Joe Lunardi’s book that I referred to in the post titled It’s never too early to utter Joe Lunardi’s name… on October 1st, I was surprised to find that there is no true “algorithm” that Joey Brackets formulates while he constructs his bracketology predications week after week. That was one of the many talking-points that I took away from his book. One thought that got brought up that I found very interesting left me pondering: was ESPN the beneficiary of March Madness or was it the other way around? Lunardi states, “It begs the question: did college sports, especially college basketball, grow because of ESPN, or did ESPN grow because of college hoops?” I got to thinking and began to take this idea a step further as it more adequality relates to this particular blog – Has sports in general become more popular because of sports gambling? I would have to argue yes, and quite frankly would not accept the ladder. Sports gambling has allowed for the low to moderate sports fans to become average sports fans, the average sports fan to become an avid sports fan, so on and so forth. It’s not like this is some new thing to us right? Well kind of… in 1949 sports gambling became legalized in Nevada and only Nevada. So maybe it is like a bright and shiny new toy to most of us even though the act of sports gambling has been know for quite some time. However, now that more and more states are beginning to legalize betting while coupling that with the availability and access to online bookies, odds, and other platforms encompassing sports gambling gives way for a whole new crowd of the masses to enter the sports gambling realm. So when you get the chance, ask yourself: who is the real beneficiary? Popularity of sports because of legalized gambling access or gambling in general due to sports. Similar to the ole’ “chicken before the egg” phenomenon because non-sports gambling has been around long before organized sports have been. Oh, I took Quinnipiac (+1) at home over Marist tonight -you’re welcome.

While we are on the topic of beneficiaries; how much is Jimmy G. thriving off the fact that he has a very solid, young head coach and not to mention that he has had the best defense (2019) and the 6th best defense (present), in terms of total yards, in both of his playoff runs.

With this being said, I tend to value the 49ers defense despite the fact that the NFC Championship game will be played on turf which is rather friendly to the OVERS. I like the UNDER in this game at 46.5. I foresee these teams having a very difficult time scoring, especially in the first half. If you are as high on the 49ers defense as I am than you may want to go against the mean of siding with the Rams in this NFC West showdown. The sharpest NFL sports gamblers love to make their living on taking road underdogs that have solid defenses. Hmmmm… oh! the 49ers meet this criteria. This game has a final score of 17-16 written all over it to me for whatever reason. Take that projected total of 33 with a grain of salt, would ya. I say this because over the past four years, the favorites in conference championship weekend have gone 11-5 ATS. Obviously this would contradict the 49ers play; however, Kyle Shanahan (49ers HC) is 7-3 against Sean McVay’s Rams while winning six straight of those seven. This a classic example of “buyer beware.” Nevertheless, should be a great match-up this upcoming Sunday afternoon!

Football lost a great on the 28th…

December 31, 2021

On December 28th, the NFL lost former player, coach, broadcaster, and video-game endorser unexpectedly. Madden owns the best winning percentage by any coach in NFL history throughout his ten year coaching stint. In 1978, Madden put away the playbook and put on the broadcasting headset; not after posting a 103-32-7 overall record (76%) while coaching the Oakland Raiders. Whether your memories of Madden are most vivid on the gridiron, in the press box, or his iconic voice in Madden ’09;

Brett Favre on the cover of Madden ’09 video game

one thing is for certain, he had a positive impact in some shape or form for all football fans, players, employees, and coaches. Rest in peach John Madden, you will be missed.

With the conclusion of several college football bowl games, we are seeing more and more “opt-outs” ever than before by these athletes. Mix this with coaches being fired faster than being hired makes it very difficult to know where a teams’ head is at entering a particular match-up. This new and evolving variable that is frustrating and taxing to keep track of makes gambling in this era of the bowl season harder than ever. Typically we would like to “proceed with caution” when making a play on odds/lines that seem too good to be true. When it comes to college football and bowl season, I highly recommend neglecting these such odds/lines as a whole. There are others out there that know way more than we do regarding a teams’ psyche, attitude, you name it; best to stay clear of those lines that make us scratch our heads. A good example of this scenario occurred this bowl season at Dallas, TX at the First Responder Bowl. Louisville closed as a 2 pint underdogs against Air Force?… The Cardinals are getting points against a Mountain West team, seems a bit fishy, right? The Cardinals ended up not covering the point spread after losing 31-28 to the Falcons. I have been searching out for some tangible edge(s) to capture for the remainder of the bowl season. Of the 24 games that have taken place, 12 of which have seen the underdogs cover ATS whereas the favorites have also covered half of the bowl games – no edge there. However, thus far there have been four games in which a mid-major program is facing off against a Power 5 foe. In each of these four games the mid-major program has won outright while going 3-1 ATS. Pretty impressive, right? Looking forward, there are only two of these match-ups remaining (Cincinnati vs. Alabama & C. Michigan vs. Washington St.). The Bearcats

currently sit as 14 point underdogs, whereas the Chippewas are 7 point underdogs. If you can shop around and find the hook on these numbers to get to 14.5 and/or 7.5 then I would like to stay true to the trend and side with both the mid-major underdogs over the Power 5 opponents… *as I bite my nails anxiously knowing that Alabama could very well be ahead by 24 points by halftime.*

Before I sign off, I came across a new development in Las Vegas. Vegas opened its doors to a new casino and resort in October of this year by the name of New Circa Resort in Vegas. What makes this resort unlike anything you’ve ever seen is its 4,000 capacity sportsbook-pool in one as you gaze above at the 143 ft. TV all while relaxing in the pool with your favorite beverage! Circa is just off the Vegas strip located downtown on Fremont St. Next time you decide to visit Sin City, look into planning your stay at Circa Casino and Resort.