BASEketball in real life…
College basketball is officially underway, at least the exhibition games are, where the big DI powerhouses get to beat up on the lower division schools. The regular season tips-off Monday with games slated all throughout the day beginning at 11am to 11pm CST. I would be remiss to not mention the preseason AP poll. Mr. Lunardi has been so kind to provide us with a preseason look at what he expects the 2023 March Madness bracket to be compiled of. Preseason Bracketology
Specifically looking at the non-Power 5 conferences: Ohio Valley, MEAC, etc, I want to take advantage of a particular early season betting angle. There is not nearly the amount of insight and knowledge surrounding these smaller programs, which gives way for more “holes” in these handicapping lines. I recommend siding with teams that are getting points (underdog) in the first game or two. We might as well take the points while the lines are not as sharp as they might become later in the season when there is a lot more data and statistics to develop these lines.
|19||San Diego St.|
Now that we have reached the halfway point of the 2022-2023 NFL season, the most polarizing plays have been on the game TOTALS. Specifically looking at Week’s 1-6, the average total for all games played within this six-week span has gone OVER just once (W4). The other five weeks have averaged a net total of 42 points scored where the average game TOTAL was listed at 45 O/U. If you were blindly “hammering” the UNDER thus far then you would be one happy customer, covering at a 58.2% clip. Taking a look at some other profitable, at least up to this point, trends around the NFL; home underdogs are covering at a 55.1% rate while road underdogs are even more profitable at 58.3% ATS. Overall, underdogs are 69-52-3; the dogs are barkin’ in the first eight weeks! This Monday we are presented with a home underdog as the Saints (+2.5) host the Ravens on MNF. In this spot, home underdogs cover 57% ATS. I would advise siding with the Saints come Monday night, especially if you can get them at +3.
Game 6 of the World Series is set for 7PM CST in Houston. Las Vegas believes that the Astros will be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy tonight as -145 favorites. The TOTAL for this matchup currently sits at 6.5 or 7, depending on where you’re shopping. I love the OVER in this particular game as both teams’ batting lineups have already seen starting pitchers Zack Wheeler (Phillies) and Framber Valdez (Astros). Game 2 featured these two starters as the TOTAL ended in 7. Now that the hitters from both clubs get to see these two again just seven days later gives the advantage to the offense more so than the defense/pitching. Game 2 stats: Wheeler (5 IP – 5 R), Valdez (6.1 IP – 1 R). Don’t overthink this one, give me the OVER (especially if you can get it at 6.5 O/U).