The 2020-21 NFL Playoff format marks the inaugural implementation of the new playoff structure where just one team from each conference receives a bye week during Wildcard Weekend. In previous years, two teams from each conference receives a bye for the first week. In addition, the “new” Wildcard Weekend has invited an additional team from each conference to compete in the playoff bracket. Hate it, love it, who cares – more football is all I care about!
NFL Playoff action begins on Saturday the 9th with the Colts and Bills kicking us off. For what it’s worth, the Bills are currently a 7 point favorite with the O/U sitting at 51.5 (MyBookie). Before you, the reader, abruptly quits reading this blog post to hurries to make your plays, consider the following… Throughout the past two NFL playoffs, the road team has covered in all eight wildcard match-ups (5-3 outright). The money-line could be very profitable come this Wildcard Weekend since we are getting an extra game compared to recent years. If you are an avid reader of mine, than you will know that I love those DOGS and UNDERS. Since 2012, the UNDER has gone 20-8 in the wildcard games. That’s good for a cool 71% levy in return. While we are on the subject of underdogs, the Washington Football Team is the third team in the Super Bowl era to reach the playoffs with a losing record. The other two teams did not only cover ATS, but won outright in their respective match-ups. If history tell us anything, you should absolutely take the points if you like this game; not to
mention that the money-line would be hard to argue against as well. One last NFL playoff trend to consider is defense. “Yeah, yeah, of course you need a solid defense to win in the playoffs,” one might say. Which would not be wrong by any account. However, passing defense is the key statistical trend that has stuck out over the past eight NFL playoffs. Throughout the last eight NFL postseasons, all Super Bowl winners have possessed a top 10 ranking in terms of total QBR allowed (i.e. passing defense). Would you all like to know which teams have ranked the highest is total QBR against this season? The top 5 are all in the playoffs: 1. Steelers – 2. Rams – 3. Football Team – 4. Saints – 5. Bills. If one is able to take all of these quick and “already done for you” information and compile it into the best play for this weekends wildcard match-up’s than we would see that the Washington Football Team would be your best bet ATS. I know, I know, how in the world could Washington beat Tampa Bay?! A. They do not have to beat them, only cover; and B. these are all professionals on the same playing field where history and analytical trends say to do so. So if you don’t want to take my word(s) for it, take good ole’ histories playbook into account!
I hope that you guys are as excited for this years’ playoff match-ups as I am! Here is a quick hype-up video to get you into the NFL Wildcard Weekend spirit! Enjoy.
NFL Playoff Picks:
RAMS (+4.5) @ SEAHAWKS – PICK = RAMS
WFT (+9) @ BUCS – PICK = WFT
BEARS @ SAINTS (T: 48) – PICK = UNDER
***It is worth noting that this NFL season has seen the most road wins in NFL history (56% ATS). Look for this trend persist come Wildcard Weekend!