NCAAB is now in full swing. Thus far, we have seen it all in this 2019-2020 college basketball season. We have seen everything from WWE style brawls to the major upsets that Kentucky and Duke both suffered as 28.5 and 25.5 point favorites (Duke losing to Stephen F. Austin, whereas Kentucky fell short to Evansville).
Merriam Webster’s Dictionary defines the term parity as, “the quality or state of being equal or equivalent.” The 2019-2020 NCAAB season has displayed this so called “parity” more so than ever. Underdogs are covering at a scale-tipping rate this season. Now a days, more and more mid-major schools are striving to keep up with the Power 5 programs in terms of scholarship amounts and quality in facilities, just to name a few. As these smaller programs begin to creep their way into the equivalence of the Duke’s and Kentucky’s of the world, we should begin to notice that the college basketball parity will be here to stay for the long haul. As you assess your next presumable plays, ask yourself, “why can this underdog not cover?” As opposed to, “how could this underdog possibly cover?” Understand the difference? Other than the Duke and Kentucky examples above, parity may reveals itself many fashions; one of those being the current Bracketology projections administered by Joe Lunardi. Currently, Lunardi has only 30 of the 68 fielded teams in the tournament as Power 5 conference schools. That’s not even half! Not to mention that San Diego St. (non Power 5 program) is currently slated as a number one seed.
Since 1980, the Super Bowl underdog has covered the point spread 52% of the time, the favorite has covered 45% of the time, and the point spread has pushed 3% of the games. This could pose some value when making your Super Bowl plays. However, the true value lies in the OVER/UNDER when it comes to Super Bowl match-ups. This value comes straight fromyour own personal intuition. The 49ers offense is predicated on their rushing abilities. If you couple that with their highly touted defense, then the UNDER is surely to hit if they come out on top of Super Bowl 54. Hence, if you like the 49ers to win, go with the UNDER. On the flip side, if you think that the Chiefs will comeout on top, go with the OVER. Do not be afraid to parlay these two scenarios… (49ers/UNDER or Chiefs/OVER).
Friendly Tip: Prop bets (also refers to as side bets) should be utilized for entertainment purposes only! These prop bets might include: Coin Toss, National Anthem Length, Gatorade Shower Color, and so on. There is typically no real value or edge that can be gathered from these types of bets. Hence, virtually making each of their outcomes a flip of a coin.
As Wildcard Weekend creeps closer and closer, we as fans gear up for yet another NFL Playoff roller coaster! This is peak season for sports gambling action. More plays are transacted than any other time of the year. This should come as no surprise considering that the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the United States. With so much attention and action being placed on each playoff game, it naturally creates very sharp lines. Side note: Super Bowl point spreads are said to be the sharpest lines above all others. It is worth mentioning that sharp lines are more difficult to uncover advantageous handicapping edges. Now you can really laugh at someone when they tell you that X playoff match-up is an absolute “lock.” In my opinion, the only place where these sacred “locks” exists are on NCAAB Saturday slates when Howard is facing off against Bethune-Cookman in a MEAC showdown. Get the idea? With that being said, just because it is more difficult (a lot more difficult) to discover edges in the NFL Playoffs, does not mean that we completely abandon our research and rigorous statistical digging. When looking at your NFL Playoff match-ups, some key factors that many betters neglect, yet are worth keeping in mind may include a teams’ depth at each position, and their regular season strength of schedule. These playoff games are a war of attrition; plain and simple. Hence, each team must be deep up and down their line-ups and must have been battle tested during the regular season with a significant sample size of their possible playoff opponent(s).
HISTORICAL TRENDS BY EACH MATCH-UP (Note: It is very difficult to compile data that offers you a significant edge. Call it, “Every little bit helps.” Or, “Better to be safe than sorry.”)
BILLS @ TEXANS (-2.5)
Record versus playoff teams… Bills (1-4) Texans (3-3)
Strength of schedule (SOS)… Bills (30th) Texans (6th)
My Pick: TEXANS – JJ Watt finally returns, period.
TITANS @ PATRIOTS (-5)
Record versus playoff teams… Titans (2-3) Patriots (3-3)
SOS… Titans (29th) Patriots (32nd – WORST)
My Pick: TITANS – Titans are playing well down the stretch, the Patriots are not. Give me the points.
VIKINGS @ SAINTS (-8)
Record versus playoff teams… Vikings (1-4) Saints (3-1)
SOS… Vikings (20th) Saints (22nd)
My Pick: SAINTS – Cousins sucks on prime-time spotlights and the Saints have a slight motivational edge after the “no-call” pass interference call last year in the NFC Championship game against the Rams.
SEAHAWKS @ EAGLES (+2)
Record versus playoff teams… Seahawks (3-3) Eagles (2-3)
SOS… Seahawks (2nd) Eagles (27th)
My Pick: SEAHAWKS – Eagles are pretty banged-up as a whole. Not to mention, the Eagles played a far easier schedule and managed to squeeze out a very mediocre 9-7 regular season record.