August 19th brought us a first glance at the college football preseason Top 25 poll. The first four teams mentioned include: #1 CLEMSON – #2 ALABAMA – #3 GEORGIA – #4 OKLAHOMA. COLLEGE FOOTBALL PRESEASON TOP 25
If you open the link above, you will notice that the ACC has 3 teams listed, the BIG 10 has 7 teams, the BIG 12 has 3 teams, the PAC 12 has 5 teams listed, the SEC has 6 teams listed, and the field has 1 team listed ( #17 UCF). If you are in the same boat as me you will be scratching your head about the BIG 10 gaining 7 of the 25 teams in the preseason Top 25 poll. For instance, of the 14 members of the BIG 10 football conference, 9 competed in last seasons’ bowl games. Of those 9 teams only 4 won their games. Looking ahead at the BIG 10 conference, I believe that the majority of games played within the BIG 10 are going to be very competitive, considering the alleged “potential” that the preseason rankings allude to within this conference. I would lean more towards siding with the dogs in BIG 10 competition this season and take all of the points that you can get. If what they are saying is accurate and half of this conference is among the Top 25 then we should assume that games within this conference are going to be small in margin and competitive. Besides, the BIG 10 is a smash-mouth, lower scoring conference anyways. TAKE THE POINTS BIG 10 FANS!
Stepping outside the BIG 10, a few sleeper teams that I have read on and caught wind of to keep your eye on this upcoming season may include: Virginia Tech, Minnesota, TCU, Washington State, and Missouri. After watching Virginia Tech the past few seasons, you can just tell that they are on the brink of greatness. Maybe this is the season where they can get over that hump. WEEK 1: @ BOSTON COLLEGE (+3.5). Now, Minnesota is apart of that alleged BIG 10 “powerhouse” that some are foreshadowing. Minnesota reminds me a lot of the Virginia Tech of the BIG 10. Last season, The Golden Gophers finished the season off strong with wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, along with a respectable bowl win over Georgia Tech. WEEK 1: vs. SOUTH DAKOTA ST. (+12.5). Next, the TCU Horned Frogs were a total let down team last season. As the preseason 16th ranked team in the country, TCU went out and finished 7-6 with a loss to Kansas. However, the old adage might be true of a bad performance is usually followed by a good performance in the sports world (vice-versa). Look for the Horned Frogs to have a bounce back season and cover the majority of their games this season. WEEK 1: ARKANSAS PINE-BLUFF (+-N/A). The Washington St. Cougars took the college football universe by storm last season. This squad basically came out of no where, and do not expect them to slow down. Even though their 2018 drafted QB Gardner Minshew is no more, Head Coach Mike Leach finally has this program headed in the right direction. WEEK 1: vs. NEW MEXICO ST. (+32.5). Finally, Mizzou may still be going through their BIG 12 to SEC growing pains, nevertheless, the future is looking bright. 2018 QB standout, Drew Lock, put the Tigers on the college football map. Behind center for Missouri this upcoming season will be Kelly Bryant, former Clemson Tiger sensation – I wonder if he has an obsession with Tigers or something?… I believe that this is the season where Mizzou finally adjusts to the SEC style of play and can compete in the SEC East and look the part in the juggernaut of a conference in the SEC. WEEK 1: vs. WYOMING (+17.5).
NFL WEEK 1 Notes:
Week 1 of 2018 in the NFL concluded with the favorites and underdogs both finished 7 of 14 ATS (with 2 pushes). Hence, no significant value/edge there, right? As for the over/under’s, 9 of the 16 match-ups ended with the UNDER hitting. Maybe some slight edge or value here, but still not enough to get my ears perked up. However, you will notice from Week 1 of the previous season that we may be able to find an edge/value when it comes to parlaying ATS with OVER/UNDER’s. Of the 14 games (again, disclaiming the 2 pushed) 6 of which concluded with the favorite covering the spread and the under coming through. That is pretty impressive concidering that you would have had almost a 50/50 chance of hitting a 2-prop parlay with the favorite/under in Week 1 of last season. Now there is some significant edge/value! If we can make a play that gives us about a 50/50 shot at hitting, when in theory is typically offered at 3/1, then that is some serious value. You’re welcome and good luck – HAPPY FOOTBALL SEASON TO ALL!
I hope that you can take and use this information for some usage towards your upcoming NCAAF plays. The College Football season kicks off this Saturday at 6pm CST headlining the Sunshine State rivals MIAMI @ FLORIDA (-7).