Anticipation for each Super Bowl builds up immediately following the conclusion of the Conference Championships. The narrative for Super Bowl LIII is no different. What is so intriguing about this particular match-up is that it features the highly decorated veteran QB (Tom Brady) versus the young-gun, unproven QB in Jared Goff. To take this match-up a step further, Bill Belichick (NE Head Coach) is 66 years old, whereas Sean McVay (LA Head Coach) is only 33. Literally half his age, McVay will have to go toe-to-toe with one of the greatest coaches that the National Football League has ever seen.
When making plays this Sunday, there are a few factors to keep in mind. Although I am not a huge fan of looking too deep in the past for my sports gambling insight; however, the 53 all time Super Bowl trends could in fact provide useful knowledge that may correlate to Super Bowl 53. For instance…
Obviously there have been 53 Super Bowl’s played with the modern NFL era. Of those 53 games, the underdog has covered 24 for of them with 2 pushes. That leaves the favorites covering 27 of those 53 match-ups. The favorite covers 53% of the time. Not that significant right? At least not significant enough to make a “blind” play on the game. However, in the last 11 Super Bowl’s, the underdog has covered 9 out of those 11 games. This comes out to an 82% covering clip. Now this statistic may hold some significance. By no means am I saying to not fancy the Patriots. With this being said, have some solid statistical reasoning to back the favorite in the Patriots if you do so. If the last 11 years have taught us anything, it is that the underdogs prevail in the end.
Now for some OVRE/UNDER advice. In the 53 years of the Super Bowl, only one match-up did not offer an OVER/UNDER (Super Bowl I). Since then, 27 of the 52 have ended with the OVER (52%). Again, not that significant; right? Looking once more at the past 11 years, you will see that 7 of those 11 contests ended in the OVER (63%). Again, this is another statistic that can provide us with some serious edge against the bookies.
For now, the current lines that are available for Super Bowl LIII are as follow:
PATRIOTS (-2.5 / -155) | RAMS (+2.5 / +125)
As always, best of luck and happy Super Bowl weekend!