3 of the 4 wildcard winners from the opening week of the NFL playoffs came from – wait for it… on the road and underdogs. It is also important to note that 3 of those first 4 games hit the UNDER total. Digging a bit deeper, you will notice that the only favorite to win last week (Cowboys) game hit the OVER total. With this being said, history has a funny way of repeating itself. Hence, if you like a favorite in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs than don’t be to hesitant to go with the OVER as well. Same could be said on the flip side, if you are like me and love picking dogs, then make a play on the UNDER for that/those particular match-ups.
Looking ahead at the particular match-ups…
AFC Playoff picture: Colts @ Chiefs (-5) & Chargers @ Patriots (-4)
NFC Playoff picture: Cowboys @ Rams (-6.5) & Eagles @ Saints (-7.5)
No surprise here whereas all 4 home teams are the favorite. However, which home team is most suspect to fall short this Saturday and Sunday? That is for you to interpret, but keep in mind the historical notes listed above. It may also be worth mentioning that each of the 4 lines have shifted in favor of all of the road dogs. For example: the Eagles @ Saints line opened at 9.5 and is now down to 7.5. Keeping mental notes like this can show you where the general public stands on these divisional match-ups.
Here are some NFL playoff angles that cover almost 65% of the time. (John D. Rothschild)
1. Road teams that win outright in first week have trouble covering in second road game. Key work here is road team.
2. Rematches of non divisional opponents during regular season. Loser in first match-up typically covers. (i.e. Eagles @ Saints in Week 11. Saints won 48-7. The play is on the Eagles despite the large deficit in Week 11.
Good luck this weekend and Go Chiefs!!!
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