Month: August 2018

Saying hello to NCAAF, and goodbye to preseason NFL

August 31, 2018

college football top 25 blog

The wait is finally over! College football has graced us with its presence, while big brother NFL is right around the corner. Last post from the 20th of August, I provided you guys with the preseason NFL power rankings. As for the college kids, here is how the experts foresee who the tops 25 teams in the country are and where they stack up.

NCAAF Preseason Rankings

Much like the NFL, NCAAF is just as difficult (if not more) to intellectually gather which lines are in one’s favor to make a play on. College athletes are much less consistent than those of the professional level(s). Obviously I do not need to get into the Why’s of that statement. It is just the way it is, and the way that it always will be. It should come to no shock to you that I may advise on holding off hitting the “books” (sports books) too hard during Week 1 of the NCAAF season. Compared to the NFL, many of the players that get traded and picked up off waivers have established themselves with a well-known identity, i.e. more consistent. Whereas, in college ball, a team could have a freshman stand out that comes out of nowhere. Or, on the flip side, a highly touted senior shits-the-bed in his finally season. Point being, if Week 1 of the NFL handicapping lines are a flip of a coin, then Week 1 of the NCAAF season is a flip of a coin where the coin lands on its edge. By no means am I saying to not make ANY plays during Week 1, just be very cautious with your money and have a well developed intellect for your gambles.

Now that my theory/disclaimer is out of the way, lets take a look at what some experts are saying about what they believe to be the identity of some of the storied programs in college football.

ALABAMA: Most elite, but way overpriced – considering their current state of QB question marks.

OLE MISS: Undervalued, will pull off some upsets this season – especially with their vicious passing attach led by QB Jordan Ta’amu.

OHIO ST: Can step-in coach Ryan Day be successful? – how will the Urban Meyer suspension influence the Buckeyes performance?

WISCONSIN: Plan of double digit wins for the Badgers – considering they are in the weaker BIG10 division.

CLEMSON:  All in – bet on another playoff birth for the Tigers.

OKLAHOMA: Sooners will not miss a beat with Kyler Murray – besides, there has to be a reason he wanted to return for his Senior season.

MIAMA: Overrated – still have big question marks at the QB position.

GEORGIA: Dawgs will finally trump the Crimson Tide and win SEC – BOLD!

(Courtesy of C. Wilson of ActionNetwork.com)

I would like to leave you with a final thought… Since the NFL is in fact the largest sport across the world that is gambled on, don’t be deterred if you see the line shift in the opposite direction that your leaning towards. Often the line changes based on the large amounts of plays that are placed by “squares” rather than “sharps”. This is typically the only sports that displays line movement occurrences that are not driven by “sharps” alone. Go with your gut, crunch the numbers, and win big!

Today’s picks:

NCAAF

CUSE @ WEST MICHIGAN (+5)

Syracuse is without their starting defensive lineman and on the road. Take the team getting points against a very unproven Syracuse team.

MLB

ORIOLE @ ROYALS (-130)

Starting pitcher for the Royals (Brad Keller) has been their “ace” for the latter portion of their season. These two face off as two of the worst teams in baseball, at the moment. Take the organization at home with their ace on the mound at a good price!

Wrapping up the dog-days of Summer

August 20, 2018

oakland athletics blog.jpg

The Dog-Days of Summer, also known as the heart of the MLB regular season is wrapping up and some of the playoff pictures are beginning to take shape. I mention the dog-days simply because this time of the sports calendar year can seem to drag on and put many sports gamblers through a “lull” (if you will). It is at this time, many betters tend to shift their attention over to the hound and horse tracks, especially if baseball is not doing it for them. You see, the NFL regular season has not yet begun, the NHL and NBA finals wrapped up in June, you don’t even get any college sports during this time for crying out loud! Nevertheless, this is a great time and opportunity to hit the books and improve your sports gambling skills.

For starters, since we are in the midst of the MLB regular season; let’s begin by discussing some tips for the latter portion of the the season. For me personally, I am not a huge fan of making play on MLB games. I am a big believer that these games are too much of a flip of a coin. You’ve heard the phrase “anyone can win on any given day in baseball.” Obviously, this statement is true for any sport. As for baseball, however, it is magnified. Hence why there are 162 games scheduled for each team every year. There is a need for a larger sample size for teams to separate themselves throughout the course of a season. With all things aside, there is one instance where I do like to take my chances on the diamond. I love looking for those squads who are in the playoff hunt and playing some of their best baseball towards the end of the year. These types of teams are giving their all every time they toe the turf, and rightfully so. However, a team such as the Kansas City Royals, whom are 38-86 at the moment are either not giving it their all, or experimenting with youthful talent in preparation for the future. Currently, a great example of one of those “hot” teams that I alluded to above is the Oakland Athletics. They are certainly playing their best ball and are right in the thick of things in terms of the AL playoff hunt. Don’t be afraid to make your plays on the Athletics if you see that they have a very favorable series match-up on the horizon. Who knows, maybe that could be the start to a brand new winning streak! As always, do your homework and take a look at the scheduled starters for each day and night.

Keep in mind: Making plays on a winning streak requires you to lose once and hop off the wagon. Whereas, placing your money in hopes that a winning streak will end could require you to lose a handful more of times before it comes to an end. 

With the NFL preseason starting up, you knew that I wouldn’t leave you guys without talking about the ole’ pigskin! I will make it short and sweet.  I would like to share where some of the Week 1 lines stand at the moment and the current NFL power rankings, enjoy!

NFL Power Rankings (Preseason)

If you recall back to my post from March of 2018 titled 2018 NFL MOCK DRAFT & SOME… I point out some stats of the probability of home dogs in Week 1 of the NFL season cover the point spread at a 55% clip. Remember, these statistics are for teams who finished with 7 or fewer wins in the previous season. Which leads to me to my next point, the Browns are 6 point dogs at home in Week 1 against the Steelers. The pride of Cleveland will be in full force to root on their up and coming and rejuvenated Browns. It is important to note that the Steelers have had some preseason drama occurrences with Bell (RB) and not to mention that Big Ben (QB) is beginning to age. The Cleveland Browns have nowhere to go but up!

As always, good luck this upcoming NFL season. Keep a lookout for my fantasy football tips coming soon…