Hi all, sorry for my recent absence. Nevertheless, that is all in the past. Let’s begin to focus on the future and how much we have to look forward to! For starters, March Madness’s Selection Sunday Show airs this Sunday, and the 2018 NFL Draft will begin on April 26th. With that being said, many (including myself) think that the Browns should be able to muster out at least a few wins this upcoming season with the 1st and 4th overall picks, along with such a large room for cap space. So who should the Browns take? Many, including CBS Sports, believe that Saquon Barkley (RB Penn St.) will be the Browns first pick in the draft. However, is this in their best interest? Many of us are aware that the average lifespan of an NFL RB ranges from 2.5-3.5 years. I believe that the Browns should pounce all over the QB from Wyoming, Josh Allen. In my opinion, he is a better version of Derik Carr (who also competed in the Mountain West Conference). The tricky thing about the draft is that you just never know who is going to pan out or not… same goes with every other professional sports draft. Who would you pick if you were the Browns?!
Well, whoever the Browns decide to go with will probably not help them out too much in the 2018-19 NFL season. Nevertheless, it very much might aid them in winning a game here and there and covering more lines! This is a perfect segway into my betting tips for Week 1 of the NFL season. Let me go ahead and just lay the facts out there, thanks to Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com. Recent history shows us that teams that won >7 games the previous season have the following percentages of covering the point spread in Week 1 competition (only) if: HOME FAVORITES (49%), HOME DOGS (52%), ROAD FAVORITES (47%), ROAD DOGS (40%). In this case, avoid making your plays on 7+ win teams when they are road dogs; but lean towards picking them when they are home dogs. Now, how do the numbers shape up if the team had <7 wins the previous season? HOME FAVORITES (55%), HOME DOGS (54%), ROAD FAVORITES (47%), ROAD UNDERDOGS (60%). As you can clearly see, the odds makers tend to undervalue the unsuccessful teams form last season.
NOTICE: Last season was and is last season. It is a brand new year! Don’t be shy to take those “shitty” 2017 teams if they are road dogs in week 1. They are looking to come out and make a statement for the next season.
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