If there is one thing I have learned from sports gambling it is that there is more than meets the eye. What do I mean by this? Have you ever seen a line that seems too good to be true? Well, that is because it probably is. This is a prime example of a bet that you may want to do your homework on before you play it. I have been caught doing this more times than my fingers can count (I only have 9 1/2 fingers, but that is a story for a different time). Typically, we as humans are pretty stingy when it comes to our money. Same applies to gambling. Do not simply throw your money around before doing some homework on the game lines!
There are a lot of good match-ups this week from a college and professional football stand-point. Keep in mind that the public LOVES taking the favorites in the point-spread (regardless of whether they are at home or on the road). While we are on the subject, pretty please with a cherry on top, stay away from road favorites; especially in your NFL plays. Let’s take a look at last week around the NFL… Road favorites who lost ATS and/or outright: DENVER(-3), PITTSBURGH(-7), CLEVELAND(-1.5), TAMPA BAY(-1), MIAMI(-5.5), and OAKLAND(-3). Week 3 of the NFL featured 10 home dogs getting points. Of those 10, 6 covered and/or won the games outright. Hence, don’t be afraid to take a home dog on the money line in the NFL. These guys love to show-out in front of their home fans. This tactic will pay off in the long run!
Referring back to my NFL equation that I keep alluding to; the biggest point differential in this weeks power rankings was in favor of the Packers. They were a 7 point favorite. The equation had them wining by 12.5. If you did not watch the game, the Packers won by 21. Now that that game is past us, the second biggest point differential according to the equation goes to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is a 3 point favorite at home. The equation has them winning by 7.5 points. The Bucs are looking for a bounce back win after week 3. Side note, the visiting Giants have a handful of “banged-up” personnel. Their weekly injuries are as follow: CENTER (did not practice) – OLB (did not practice) – DE (did not practice) – RB (did not practice). A helpful app to use to get up-to-date injury reports for all sports can be found in the App Store: Sports Insights. This app/website also offers betting trends and line changes, forecasted weathers, and much more. Check it out! It has been a very helpful tool for my use.
NEBRASKA @ ILLINOIS (+6.5) PICK = ILLINOIS
UNC @ G. TECH (-9.5) PICK = UNC
MISS ST. @ AUBURN (-10) PICK = MISS ST.
OHIO ST. @ RUTGERS (+29) PICK = RUTGERS
CLEMSON @ V. TECH (+7.5) PICK = V. TECH
TITANS @ TEXANS (+1.5) PICK = TEXANS
BILLS @ FALCONS (-8) PICK = FALCONS
GIANTS @ BUCS (-3) PICK = BUCS
If you guys couldn’t tell, I love picking dogs (especially home dogs!) I know it sounds cliche, but it is so true. Each game, no matter the sport starts at 0-0. This always makes it harder for the favorite to get ahead as oppose for the underdog to get behind. Especially if we consider that more of the pressure is on the favorite to go out and perform better and eventually win. For the record, Rutgers is my LOCK!