Don’t be a lazy bettor!

If there is one thing I have learned from sports gambling it is that there is more than meets the eye. What do I mean by this? Have you ever seen a line that seems too good to be true? Well, that is because it probably is. This is a prime example of a bet that you may want to do your homework on before you play it. I have been caught doing this more times than my fingers can count (I only have 9 1/2 fingers, but that is a story for a different time). Typically, we as humans are pretty stingy when it comes to our money. Same applies to gambling. Do not simply throw your money around before doing some homework on the game lines!

There are a lot of good match-ups this week from a college and professional football stand-point. Keep in mind that the public LOVES taking the favorites in the point-spread (regardless of whether they are at home or on the road). While we are on the subject, pretty please with a cherry on top, stay away from road favorites; especially in your NFL plays. Let’s take a look at last week around the NFL… Road favorites who lost ATS and/or outright: DENVER(-3), PITTSBURGH(-7), CLEVELAND(-1.5), TAMPA BAY(-1), MIAMI(-5.5), and OAKLAND(-3). Week 3 of the NFL featured 10 home dogs getting points. Of those 10, 6 covered and/or won the games outright. Hence, don’t be afraid to take a home dog on the money line in the NFL. These guys love to show-out in front of their home fans. This tactic will pay off in the long run!

Referring back to my NFL equation that I keep alluding to; the biggest point differential in this weeks power rankings was in favor of the Packers. They were a 7 point favorite. The equation had them wining by 12.5. If you did not watch the game, the Packers won by 21. Now that that game is past us, the second biggest point differential according to the equation goes to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is a 3 point favorite at home. The equation has them winning by 7.5 points. The Bucs are looking for a bounce back win after week 3. Side note, the visiting Giants have a handful of “banged-up” personnel. Their weekly injuries are as follow: CENTER (did not practice) – OLB (did not practice) – DE (did not practice) – RB (did not practice). A helpful app to use to get up-to-date injury reports for all sports can be found in the App Store: Sports Insights. This app/website also offers betting trends and line changes, forecasted weathers, and much more. Check it out! It has been a very helpful tool for my use.


My Picks…..

NCAAF:

NEBRASKA @ ILLINOIS (+6.5) PICK = ILLINOIS 

UNC @ G. TECH (-9.5) PICK = UNC

MISS ST. @ AUBURN (-10) PICK = MISS ST.

OHIO ST. @ RUTGERS (+29) PICK = RUTGERS

CLEMSON @ V. TECH (+7.5) PICK = V. TECH

NFL:

TITANS @ TEXANS (+1.5) PICK = TEXANS 

BILLS @ FLACONS (-8) PICK = FALCONS

GIANTS @ BUCS (-3) PICK = BUCS 

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If you guys couldn’t tell, I love picking dogs (especially home dogs!) I know it sounds cliche, but it is so true. Each game, no matter the sport starts at 0-0. This always makes it harder for the favorite to get ahead as oppose for the underdog to get behind. Especially if we consider that more of the pressure is on the favorite to go out and perform better and eventually win. For the record, Rutgers is my LOCK!

Week 3, Already?!

First, here are your WEEK 3 NFL POWER RANKINGS

In relation to the this week’s power rankings, the Bengals @ Packers (-9) game had the biggest discrepancy. Hence, BET IT! According to the link above, the Bengals are ranked 30th (15) while the Packers are sitting at 7th (3.5). The equation is as follows: 15 – 3.5 = 11.5 — 11.5 + 3 = 14.5. If we go by the equation, in theory the Packers should win by “14 and a 1/2” points. Obviously you can only win (or lose) by whole numbers. However, for sports gambling purposes it helps when deciding your picks for the weekend. With any questions relating to this equation, refer to the previous NFL post from September 8th.

*** NOTICE: Jordy Nelson has been labeled as OUT for the Week 3 game against the Bengals. Keep this in mind when placing your bets.

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I would also like to share with my fellow Bettors a little tip that is very easy to identify and very easy to “play.” In addition, you can use this tip for any sport, not just in your NFL plays.  When observing the game lines throughout the week, have you ever noticed that the lines tend to shift a little here and a little there? Well, these point shifts are not primarily determined by Vegas. So why do the lines shift throughout the week? When lines shift at the sports book, it is generally based on which side of the line most of the money is gravitating towards. Keep in mind that it takes a lot of money for lines to shift. Nevertheless, it is typically not a bad idea to take the side(s) that of which the gamblers with a lot of money are leaning towards. We call those who place a hefty amount of money on a particular game as sharps. These bettors are typically “professional” bettors. So, next time you are looking at the lines; take a look to see which way the lines are shifting. Let’s use the Bengals and Packers game for example. If the Packers line starts at (-9) on Tuesday and quickly shifts to Packers (-10) on Wednesday; then don’t be afraid to make a “play” on the Packers despite losing 1 point from the point spread. There is a reason (and usually a good one) why the line is shifting one way or the other.

My Picks:

NFL:

BENGALS @ PACKERS (-9) – This match-up is what I was alluding to above. I really like the Packers to have a bounce back win in their return to Lambeau Field, especially against a very wounded Bengals squad. Despite the loss of Jordy Nelson, look for Devante Adams to have a monster game! PICK: PACKERS

BRONCOS @ BILLS (+3) – I picked Buffalo in this game because of the their Week 2 showing. Last week, the Bills went into Charlotte against a solid Panther team. Although their offense struggled, their defense seemed to hold their part of the bargain in a 9-3 loss. I think that the Broncos will be a good match-up for the Bills where two good defenses will be on display, especially when you consider that the Bills are looking for a bounce back win at home. Side note, Denver (mountain-timezone) is traveling to Buffalo (eastern-timezone). In the NFL, when a mountain timezone team travels to an eastern timezone venue, they are 44.5% ATS (against the spread), leaving you with a 55.5% of covering this bet, according to this statistic. Not too bad of odds! PICK: BILLS 

NCAAF:

WASHINGTON @ COLORADO (+10.5) – I like the Buffs in this game. Colorado is looking for revenge after a Pac-12 (2016) title game loss against who else? The Huskies of Washington. I believe that the Huskies do not have the same offensive line as they had a season ago. Whereas the Buffalos are coming back from a successful 2016 season.Look for the home dog to cover, but not win. Washington (38), Colorado (31). PICK: COLORADO

We’re ready for you Joe Buck… #FallClassic

Let me first take the time to congratulate the Cleveland Indians on the miraculous task they have been able to accomplish (continuing as it stands) in the months of August and September. However, with this being said; look for the Indians’ bats to cool off come postseason play. As a former college baseball player, I know that pitching is your consistent backbone that teams lean on throughout a season. Whereas, hitting comes and goes in waves (much more streaky than a pitching staff).

joebuck RJD blogThis is a great transition for some MLB Postseason advice for my Bettors! I was stumbling around on the web and wanted to look at what the OVER/UNDER totals were in all 35 postseason games played in the 2016 Fall Classic. In my findings, I gathered that 21 of the 35 games that were played in the month of October resulted in UNDERS. This is the postseason we are talking about; managers will summon all of their weapons out of the respected bullpens and try to squeak out a win— hence, making it more difficult to score runs off a teams’ best arm(s). This 21/35 UNDER ratio is a 60% rate compared to the 40% that the OVERS came out to be. In the sports gambling world, a 60% win rate will make you a very rich man/woman pretty quickly. On a side note, I also looked to see if there were any significant differences between home and visitor win percentages last October. Long story short, the numbers are not worth mentioning because they came out too similar. In fact, the away teams won just one more game than the home teams.  Keep these tips in mind if you are planning to gambling on the #FallClassic that we so desperately crave in the month of October. One more tip, ear plugs help drown out the voice of the “all-knowing” Joe Buck.

Weekend picks: (9/16 – 9/17)

NFL:

BROWNS @ RAVENS (-9.0) – Once again, I like the Browns in this match-up. Similar to last week against the Steelers (Browns covered), the Browns are facing off against a divisional rival; this time on the road. Look for the Ravens defense to not come out as energetic as last weekend. The Browns are close to becoming that team that can be competitive in a lot of games. 9 points is a lot to win by in the NFL on any given week, especially when you don’t have quite the same offensive fire power as the Ravens once had. PICK: BROWNS

NCAAF:

TENN @ FLORIDA (-5.0) – The Gators are looking for a bounce back win against a tough opponent in Michigan. This will the be the first home game of the season for Florida. Look for them to come out with full motivation and ready to play. Florida hung with Michigan the entire second half whereas Tennessee needed overtime to beat a very average Georgia Tech team. PICK: FLORIDA 

FRESNO ST. @ WASHINGTON (-33.0) – I liked the way FSU competed last week against Alabama, they never quit. I expect the same from this match-up. The Huskies may try to air out the ball a bit more and put up more points than Alabama However, Washington’s defense does not compare to the defense of Alabama’s. Fresno St. (24) – Washington (52). PICK: FRESNO ST. 


***STAY AWAY FROM ROAD FAVORITES IN FOOTBALL!

Are you ready for some Football?!…

Notice that there is no NCAAF tab. This is not by accident. I figured that I could just lump the NFL and NCAAF together. I will not be posting a lot of content regarding NCAAF and game lines, ect. I choose to focus most of my attention on the NFL and NCAAB. With that being said, who says that I cannot gamble on NCAAF and not share my thoughts and insights with you all?!

At this moment, I am sitting in front of my television anxiously waiting for the Chiefs @ Patriots game to start (NE -8.5). In this particular game, one of Tom Brady’s main weapons is out for the season in Julian Edelman with a knee injury. I have read up on some information that in short states that opponents in Week 1 matchups versus the previous years’ Super Bowl winners are more likely to cover the spread if they are underdogs. Why is this? Who knows. Maybe it is because the opponent is more motivated because they know they must play well to beat the squad on top of the hill. So keep an eye on the Chiefs to cover that 8.5 point spread.

Once again, gather some theories/hypothesis’ that you may want to try out in preparation for the Week 2 NFL Season. Begin to develop some power rankings by halves for all 32 NFL teams. For example, think about placing the 49ers at 16th because they are the 32nd ranked team, where the Patriots would be placed at 1/2nd (if you will). Keep in mind, the home team (only in NFL competitions) gains 3 points on the spread no questions asked. Lets use this scenario: The Patriots (1/2nd) are visiting the 49ers (16th), what would the point-spread be? (16th-3) – 1/2nd = 12.5. In theory, the 12.5 equals what the Patriots should win by. You subtract 3 from the 16th because the 49ers at home, giving them 3 extra points. If you were wanting to place a bet on this particular matchup then you would want to see if the point-spread is above or below 12.5. If the line is above 12.5, place your wager on the 49ers; if not, place your money on the Patriots. 2017-18 WEEK 1 NFL POWER RANKINGS 

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Football picks (Week 2):

NCAAF:

LOU (-8.0) @ UNC – Louisville is looking to have a better performance out of Lamar Jackson, while the Tar Heels looked very shaking after their loss against Cal. PICK = LOUSIVILLE

FRESNO ST. @ BAMA (-44.0) – Let’s be honest, 44 points is a lot to win by. I understand that it is the great Alabama; however, Fresno State is no FCS slap-dick opponent. Also, Fresno looked solid in their season opener against Incarnate Word with a victory of 66-0. Look for Alabama to come out a bit sluggish and unmotivated. PICK = FRESNO STATE

MINN @ OR ST. (-2.0) – Oregon State is an explosive team that is much improved and can put up points in a hurry, much like their rival Oregon. Go with an explosive Pac-12 team over an average BIG10 team. PICK = OREGON STATE

NEB @ ORE (-14.0) – After Nebraska’s nail biter against Arkansas St. look for the Ducks to take advantage of a crippled offense in Nebraska. Nebraska is missing two of their top three receivers. PICK = OREGON

NFL:

PHL (-1.0) @ WAS – Kirk Cousins is finally looking to make his statement in the 2017-18 season. Never a bad idea to pick a home dog when two teams are pretty evenly matched (at least as it seems on the surface). PICK = WASHINGTON

PIT (-9.0) @ CLV – If we go by the logic previously state above, the Browns ranking would be 15th; whereas the Steelers would be 1st 1/2. Math time! (15-3) – 1 1/2 = 10.5. However, I chose to wager on the Browns because they are facing a rival on their home opener with an up and coming quarterback. More of a risk than anything, but seemed like a solid bet in my eyes. PICK = BROWNS

Happy football watching!