Preseason, Prewinning…

The 2017-2018 NFL season is beginning to take its shape as we gear up for yet another exciting season of NFL Football. Although this particular post encompasses NFL gambling philosophies does not necessarily mean that you push these tactics way-side when gambling through other sports. I decided to place this post under the NFL tab simply because the season’s start is in sight. In my opinion, the 2017 NFL offseason has been rather quiet in relation to prior years. No failed drug tests were recorded, no high-profile arrests were made, and no “worth talking about” trades were had, for the most part anyway. Hence, I believe that it is safe to say that this offseason was mild in nature.

To start, I would like to share with you a very useful tip that I have picked up along the way that does not necessarily allow me to choose the “winning” bet over the losing bet, but it sure makes it a hell of a lot easier! First, I highly encourage you to utilize the Microsoft’s Excel software that is probably located somewhere within your computer. If you are not too familiar with Excel and only know it by its name then I suggest familiarizing yourself with this software if you truly are interested in making some money via sports gambling. I am sure that Google has numerous outlets for which to become more familiar with Excel—as for now, that is not my objective. Anyways, Excel will make win/loss probabilities, over/under probabilities, and (you fill in the blank) much easier to interpret, I promise! Next, an NFL season is seventeen weeks long with random teams having a “bye-weeks” each week. What’s 17 weeks minus 1 bye-week equal? Good. All teams compete in a sixteen game schedule each year. So, if you are wanting to bet over/under’s for a teams’ win total in a particular season, how likely is any given team chance to finish up their season at .500, or 8-8? The answer is, 19.6%. Baring we assume that there are 32 alike teams in the NFL, and about 20%

of those teams will finish 8-8; that leaves you with about six teams accomplishing an absolutely average season. A good rule of thumb to start thinking about as the NFL preseason festivities get underway is to take this time to indulge in your own personal preseason to sharpen your sports gambling skills. During this four week stretch, test your unique theories and record mental notes on tendencies that you may be noticing from the players and flow of the games. Keep in mind, you must observe a large sample size, or even the entire league when compiling data and research. Obviously, one games’ statistics are not the end-all-be-all for other predictors in future competition and sports betting.

One tip that I will leave you with that I myself am certainly anxious to test out this upcoming season is the “home-dog” theory. I caution you that I have not performed personal research on this particular “edge.” However, I have done some digging for scores in recent years and noticed that home underdogs in NFL Football are a great bet if they are >/= (+5.5) underdogs at home. The AT HOME phrase is everything in this situation. If you are like me, then you have already glanced over the Week 1 match-ups around the NFL. If you click on the Week 1 blog pic football1hyperlink, you will notice a prime example of a home underdog that will look to have at least 5.5 points to work with in order to cover the point spread. In my opinion, the San Fransisco 49ers hosting the Carolina Panthers looks like a great opportunity to jump on. After a poor showing last season, the 49ers are looking for a much needed bounce back season. What better way to propel your season in the right direction with an opening day win on your home turf and in front of your home fans. Hell, who’s to say that they will not at least cover the point spread?!

Best of luck, win some bucks!

 

 

 

 


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